Magura and the toddler to heat up the enemy. How Ukrainian drones show the world a model of modern war on sea
Not having its own constant fleet, Ukraine has failed at least one-third of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia, broke through the naval blockade and opened the Black Sea again for grain transportation. Ukraine's exports are now approaching the pre -war level, which is a huge good for its wartime economy.
How did Ukraine succeed in this incredible feat? In part, the explanation can be found in the use of powerful anti -ship winged missiles, in particular the domestic "Neptune", which in 2022 burned "Moscow", the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. But Ukraine also brilliantly introduced innovations, developing its own drones, which can hunt Russian warships like wolf flocks. Both Magura V5 and Sea Baby ("Sea Baby" in the Ukrainian version - F.
) are essentially unmanned boats that can be filled with explosives or even launching their own missiles. They are equipped with cameras and satellite connections that allow remote dispatchers to direct them to the purposes, they move quickly (up to 50 miles per hour) and are made of materials that are difficult to detect by the radar. The best thing is that they are cheap in production and are not at risk of Ukrainian staff.
Drones worth only a few hundred thousand dollars are felt by warships worth a few million dollars, which can take years. "The one who thinks it does not change the rules of the game in the future war, simply closes his eyes to the desired one," said PV Singer from the New American Analytical Center. James Stavridis, retired Admiral and former NATO commander, agree with this: "We are at the absolute rotary point in the Marine War.
Large surplus ships are at high risk of air, surface and underground drones. The USA will understand this, they are more likely to survive in the restless 21st century. Numerous and much less expensive drones. " US military leaders at the conceptual level recognize the changing nature of war. My colleagues David Ignatius and Josh Rogin have recently spoke about the efforts of the US Armed Forces to integrate drones into their operations.
The Navy conducted great tests of unmanned the unmanned Gulf systems and created two squadrons of unmanned surface ships in the Pacific. Navy commander understands that drones that are capable of acting on the surface of the sea and above and under it can be of vital importance to reflect any attempt at China to invade Taiwan. But the US military has not yet invested the necessary resources in advanced unmanned systems, as they are still firmly tied to their manned "inherited" platforms.
The "replicator" initiative, which was announced last year, is a positive step: it is the attempt of the whole Pentagon to bypass the cumbersome procurement rules and to introduce drones as soon as possible into the US operational forces. However, the project budget is only $ 500 million a year, and it should cover all areas of service.
But the Navy shipbuilding budget for the 2025 financial year is $ 32 billion - and almost all this money will go to warships with crew, including frigates, destroyers and aircraft carriers (worth up to $ 13 billion per piece), which are likely to be fat target for Chinese drones, submarines and rockets. The Navy is not fully guilty of this: like other services, it is in the power of an "iron triangle" - defensive contractors, pentagon bureaucrats and congressmen.
In 2022, the Navy tried to take out the operation of nine coastal warships that suffered from mechanical problems and which would not have a chance in a high -intensity conflict with China, but Congress ordered five ships to remain in order because their withdrawal The operation will cause harm and will be poorly perceived in deputy districts. The program of coastal warships can eventually cost taxpayers $ 100 billion, without providing any useful combat capacity.
Despite the many accusations, the point is that the Navy remains, in fact, by the fighting force of the 20th century. "The Navy is unconditionally implementing drones too slowly," Lorin Selby, a retired contraradmiral and former head of naval research, told me. "The good news is that it is finally recognized that drones will play and play a role in the Marine War. The bad news is that budgets do not reflect it yet.
" Not far from the United States went some American allies that could most win from drones. Last year in Taiwan, I was shocked, finding how little effort the island made to integrate unmanned systems into my armed forces. Taiwan continues to spend precious defense dollars on manned ships and planes and even artillery systems and tanks. According to T.
Hammes, a prominent employee of the University of National Defense, the emergence of unmanned systems gives the advantage of defense over the offensive, which complicates the promotion of attacking. It is a good news from the USA, given that America is a state-quo state that seeks to prevent China to rewrite the map of the Western Pacific in its favor. But the United States and their allies do not fully use the benefits of this new technology.
"The naval forces are inherently conservative organizations, so I expect changes will be quite slow," Hamms says. The problem is that the United States and their allies cannot afford to wait: as directed by the leader of Xi Jinping, the Chinese army is rapidly increasing its strength, so that it is ready to win Taiwan by 2027, if necessary. In preparation of effective defense, you can not lose a minute, and drones should be on the front.