Does Russia be stuck in Syria? What happens in the Aleppo area and what to wait on
After that, Assad's troops advanced to the city of Ham with a rapid march and almost took it. This is, in general, an information wave about events in Syria. The second important thesis, which moves in the Ukrainian information field - the defeat of the Russian Federation because of the defeat of its proxy, which is perceived by Bashar Assad. And finally, the third, possible overthrow of the President of the country.
Against this background, the names of a variety of paramilitary groups are heard, which the permitting reader tries to divide by two categories: Assad or Assad. In reality, the situation is somewhat more complicated. And for its understanding it is necessary to turn to the period of civil war in Syria. Syrian tangle in simple words. In order not to overload the details, I will give some extremely important theses: but the most interesting concerns the balance of forces in northern Syria.
Even at the beginning of the conflict, Turkey actively supported the political and paramilitary formations of Syrian Turkmen, or, as they are called "Syrian Turks". As a result, a "proto -state" was created in the territory of their settlement with their authorities, with an economy tied to Turkey, not to Syria. To understand the Ukrainian reader, it is a kind of analogue "DNR" in the Syrian territory. The second major enclave is the Syrian Kurdistan.
The territory inhabited by Kurds, controlled by them and existing in the format of an unrecognized state. This is an important detail, since Turkey's intervention in the civil war in Syria was conditioned not only by the activity of the IDIL and the obligations to NATO allies, how much (or above all) the expansion of the Kurdish forces control zone.
If the Syrian Kurdistan got the access to the sea, it would be possible to talk about the emergence of a new state and the prospects of its recognition at least part of the Western powers. What Turkey could not allow. Therefore, the most large -scale Turkish military operations in northern Syria were directed not against the Islamic state, but against Kurdish forces. As stated above, the civil war in Syria is not completed. More precisely, its active phase was completed by 2023.
The next stage is a political settlement, which provided for the reform of the management system, the co -opposition of part of the opposition forces. This Assad was in no hurry. Rather, on the contrary, he strengthened his power, pushing the process of consultation from transit for later times. Moreover, there was no unity of "opposition forces".
There is a "united opposition" with their requirements (by the way, not the only one inside), there are pro -Turkish formations in the north, there are Kurds. With each of these groups, the Assad government tried to get in touch and discuss the future. But to plant everyone together "at one table" in a serious (with a real result) did not turn out to anyone. And finally, there are external forces.
These are the Russian Federation, Iran (and dependent on them "Hezbolla"), which play an important role in stabilizing the situation. It is the United States, which has retained its contingent in the territory of Syrian Kurdistan. And, of course, Turkey. Each of these parties has their own vision of the future of Syria and their interests in this country.
Moreover, in the case of the disagreement of the opposition forces, Bashar Assad could play political reform within and agree with one of the groups. Either with Kurds, or with opposition in Homs, or with Turks. But: Against this background, Ankara begins to think about her own operation. The purpose of which would be to sharp strengthening their positions to the detriment of positions, first of all, Iran.
And this is an extremely important aspect, since the limitation of Iran's impact in the region is beneficial to the United States, and therefore the United States can "agree" with the realization of the second goal - the weakening of the Kurds' positions. Moreover, the Kurdish enclave remained north of Aleppo, which the Turks could not be eliminated during the Olive Branch surgery.
In case of success under the influence of Turkey, a territory of one and a half provinces, which includes the largest city of the country (at least at the beginning of the Civil War), is. And if there is its own administration - it is the first and main potential participant in negotiations with Damascus about the future structure of the country. That is, Ankara sharply strengthens his own positions in the Syrian crisis.
At the same time the overthrow of Bashar Assad to the Turkish side to nothing. Weakening, some transit of power, formalization of Turkish influence - yes. But the interception of power and responsibility for a fairly large state is not required from the word "completely". The fighting began and took place within the logic described. The attack began at the time of a sharp weakening of the presence of Iran and Hezbolla.
The first are engaged in their internal problems and support of proxy in confrontation with Israel, the latter were directly involved in fighting against Israeli law enforcement agencies. The first was the attack of HTSh ("Hayat Tahrir Ash-Sham"), an Islamist organization that arose as a result of the merger of the local Branch of Al-Qaeda and the three Syrian Salafi groups. The geography of their promotion coincided with the geography of the location of the head posts "Hezbolla" and Quir.
In this case, local army ranks were either demoralized or bribed. The fairness of this assumption is evidenced by the fact that the main dead "from the Assad" - Iranians or Lebanese. And the Syrian motorized brigade just came out of Aleppo. In particular, from the fortress in the city center, which government troops kept all 4 years of battle (which is important in terms of information influence in the region).
The further promotion of HTS units was accompanied by the calls of Turkey to the "peaceful resolution of the crisis", but also, at the same time, by the attack of the "Syrian National Army" (a military structure that acts as an army of Syrian Turks) north of Aleppo. In parallel, detachments of "Syrian democratic forces" have begun, by providing future problems, this is one of the "Kurdish armies".
The SDS entered the northeast suburbs inhabited by Kurds and tried to create a land corridor to the east that would connect the Syrian enclave in the province of Haleb (Aleppo) with Syrian Kurdistan. Proto -Turkish forces could not allow such development. SNA was fighting against the SDS and still displaced the Kurds from the villages along the # 4 highway on the Aleppo - Deir Hafira section. The fighting between Kurds and Turks began for Deir Hafir himself.
In parallel with this HTSh, the requirement of the Kursk SDS to leave the Aleppo "for the sake of guaranteeing security". That is, in the coming days the area to the northeast of Aleppo can become a zone of fierce battles between pro -Turkish formations and Kurdish detachments. Moreover, mobilization has already been announced on the territory of Syrian Kurdistan. The second front (not the main one) is the movement on the ham and further south.
There are active battles between the government forces of Syria and the HTS. I emphasize-it is the detachments of "Hayat Tahrir Ash-Sham", not a dream. They are unlikely to end with a rapid defeat of one of the parties, and only fix the new front line. At the same time, both the Syrian army and HTS will be significantly weakened.
Turkey (and its proxy in the form of a dream) will at this time fight with Kurdish detachments, seeking to prevent the connection of Kurdish enclave in a slab with the main territory of Syrian Kurdistan. And, ideally, eliminate it. As a result of surgery, the influence of Iran (and Hezbolla) in Syria is significantly weakened. Russia, which has not been able to demonstrate the ability to promptly provide the desired level of assistance, also loses its position (but to a lesser extent than Iran).
Syrian opposition groups of the North (who have found shelter in the province of Idlib) emerge from the crisis weakened. Their key fighting wing-"Hayat Tahrir Ash-Sham"-will be strongly shabby in the battles against the Syrian army. And this means that Turkey sharply strengthens its situation and is likely to start the "construction of the state of Turkomans" with the capital in Aleppo.
Formally, it will be a zone controlled by the "opposition forces", but look above, their military potential will be undermined. The next stage is the restoration of political consultations on the formation of a new system of government in Syria. Where the Turkish side expects additional concessions. And what about Kurds? Syrian Kurdistan will be preserved. The enclave north of Aleppo is not sure. In general, the Kurdish forces will once again become a coin in a larger -scale game.