Tanks will be enough for 2-3 years: what is the true potential of the armed industry of the Russian Federation-the media
Instead, the Kremlin clears the warehouses of old Soviet tanks and shells, increases the production of drones-Kamikadze Shahd-136 and cannot increase the issue of missiles due to the use of Western components. The troubles that are in the field of weapons of the Russian Federation were told on the Welt portal. The journalists of the portal analyzed the situation in four areas of weapons: tanks, rockets, drones-Kamikadze and artillery shells.
At the same time, they relied on statements by the Russian authorities, the analytics of Western experts, statements of Ukrainian and American special services. As a result, they concluded about trends, not too positive for the Russians. However, Ukrainians also have problems, - the article reads. "If we look more closely at four key areas of weapons, the situation is much less rainbow - and at the same time far from the hopes of Ukrainians and their Western partners," Welt said.
Over the two years of the war, Oryx analysts estimated that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation lost 8,400 units of armored vehicles, of which 2 900 are tanks and 5 500 were armored personnel carriers. At the beginning of the war, the Russians had a total of 10 thousand units. This type of technology - both new and those who stood on storage on landfills. At the beginning of 2024, satellite photos showed that the Russian Federation has another 40% of tanks and landfills.
They will be restored and sent to the war to Ukraine - up to 1 600 units. for a year. Meanwhile, new armored vehicles are able to produce up to 200 units, - the article is stated. As a result, as the calculations of Johann Michel and Michael Jersstad from the British International Institute for Strategic Studies show the calculations, the Kremlin will gradually lose the opportunity to throw a large number of tanks into battle.
Old technology reserves in the Russian Federation will decrease to zero for two to three years,-scientists said. For some types of rockets of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it is known that they produce about 230 pcs a month. - This was stated by the Ministry of Defense. Among them are 130 pcs. - with a range of more than 350 km and 100 pcs. - with a range of less than 350 km.
The number of Russians cannot increase because they have problems with Western components (40 to 50 elements in each rocket). The fact that the rocket lacks is evidenced by the fact that before every massive shelling and a long pause, when they are released, - explained in the article. In addition, negotiations with Iran and DPRK are ongoing - that is, there is a lack of missiles.
German journalists quoted the statement of the Russian Minister of Industry on Dronov-Kamikadze Shahd-136, which the Russian Federation regularly beats in Ukraine. He reported that in 2025 the Russians planned to release 5 thousand drones of this type. And the total number of drones of different types - 11 thousand units. They noted that in 2023 the Russians launched 3095 devices, that is, eight a day. In 2024, this figure did not increase and averages five pcs. day.
Therefore, the article is indicated in the article, the Russians have not been able to significantly increase the production of this type of weapon during the year. Given the blows to the factory in Tatarstan, which happened on April 4, there is doubt that the situation will improve. The Russians stated that they will need 5. 6 million shells for the occupation of new parts of Ukraine a year. Instead, the Russian Federation industry in 2024 is able to produce them 2. 1 million units.
The Welt article states that the Kremlin can hope for old Soviet reserves, as well as for deliveries from partners. Among the external suppliers are two major countries - Belarus and the DPRK (North Korea has already sent the Russian Federation 3 million of artsnayars). "The state of ammunition stored will probably be very bad, because, given the huge consumption in the first two years after the invasion, armed companies probably have already chosen the best reserves," the journalists summed up.
It should be noted that in February 2024 experts analyzed whether the Kremlin was able to transfer the economy to "military rails". It turned out that the Russian Federation restored the capacity of the armed industry by increasing the number of employees. Meanwhile, analysts calculate Russia's losses as a result of blows to oil refineries. According to preliminary estimates, the losses are still up to 12% after beats of 20 refineries.