Problems will begin in May: as a continuation of strokes on refinery will lead to fuel deficiency in

The continuation of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will eventually lead to a fuel deficit, expert Igar Tyshkevich predicts. He assumes that it can happen in May and will last until the end of the summer. Russian refineries continue to burn. For the most part, not themselves - they arrive in Ukrainian UAVs. As of today, most of the refineries located in the western part of the Russian Federation have been affected.

In whole of large factories, the Moscow refinery, "Kirnefteorgsynthesis" and the Saratov Refinery remained. But he can fly there. This situation has already forced the Russian Federation to stop the export of petroleum products, to increase the order for processing in Belarus, Kazakhstan. Moreover, the Government of the Russian Federation has asked the Kazakh government to create a "supply of petroleum products" for deliveries to Russia in May-June 2024, however, there is still fuel in Russia.

First, not all of the affected refineries have completely stopped production, and secondly, there are storage reserves in storage. With the last the worst. The repositories are empty because the "ordinary" demand is the seasonal growth of agricultural consumption and war. Option with deliveries to the western part of the country of refinery from the NPP of the Urals and Siberia does not give a way out of the situation. Just as imports only from Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Suppliers and repairs are also needed. With suppliers, it is possible to order processing in India, where there are large refineries. This, by the way, will allow to solve the problem of "suspended" $ 39 billion (in Rs), which the Russian Federation received for oil supply but cannot withdraw from India. But look at the card and estimate the shipping cost. It will be very expensive. Therefore, gasoline prices that are already growing will continue to increase.

There is a variant of Iran, but not everything is smooth. With repair worse. As if citizens of the Russian Federation are not proud of the "technological development" of their country, but the "oil state" is not able to produce modern equipment for oil refining. Able to Japan, Germany, a number of countries. But the problem rests on the sanction. Therefore, a shortage of certain fuels in Russia is possible. Provided by Ukrainian attacks.

Then it will occur in May and can last until July-August (at least). Naturally, accompanied by rising prices. First on fuel, then all products delivered by the consumer by transport. In addition, Ukraine can expand the logic of using UAVs for oil refining infrastructure. For example, to mention oil and product pipelines. As well as about the rail that they will deliver imported fuel. But it may be closer to May. After all, "May holidays" should be inflammatory.