Day that will change the war: why it is important for Ukraine to stay until spring and what will be March 25

Putin's regime begins to prepare for mobilization, which can be started on March 25, is warned by journalist Vadim Denysenko. In his opinion, if Ukraine does not freeze the conflict by May, the likelihood of its delay on the moon (year) increases dramatically on March 25, 2025, new rules for reservation of military personnel in the Russian Federation begin to apply. Only the MIC and security officers are insured by the mobilization of 100%.

It is important to pay attention to the security officers: the support of the regime should protect the regime and buy it not so much wages as they will not go to fight. All others fall under mobilization (even state bodies, although at the central level, the reservation loses only 5%, and at the lower regional level - 30% of employees). Actually, this step is a sign that the power in the center feels the final exhaustion of those who can be called contractual volunteers.

The last attempt to extract relatively large masses of people due to the write -off of bank debts up to $ 90 thousand (it came into force only for new contractors since 01. 12. 24) will clearly not be too mass. I believe that the calculation is about a maximum of 100-200 thousand new contractors, which is commensurate with the plan for recruits for 2. 5-5 months. It will cost the Russian budget 1-2 trillion rubles.

In other words, the Russian authorities prepare the foundation for the opportunity to carry out another wave of mobilization. At the same time, the payments of the mobilized will be much smaller than the payment of the contractors. They will not be zero, the authorities will give something, but it will clearly not be the current $ 20,000.