The results will see in Moscow: what can the Ukrainian Grim-2 missile and why it is not enough to win
But this is not the most important problem for Ukraine-against the background of the fact that the full-scale war of Russia has been going on for the 33rd month. The Ukrainian Grim-2 missile is almost ready for use, Egor Chernev, Head of the Ukrainian Delegation to NATO, said recently. "Believe me, there will soon be specific results that not only Ukraine but also the Russian Federation will see," Chernev said.
"Grim-2" is a single-stage solid fuel ballistic rocket that can carry a warhead weighing 1 100 pounds per 310 miles, probably by inertial guidance. It is a significant step forward compared to the best combat missile of Ukraine-"point in" in the "1970s. KB "Southern", a missile company in the Dnieper, in the east of Ukraine, has worked on "Thunder-2" for ten years.
In the years preceding the expansion of Russia's war with Ukraine, which began in February 2022, it was considered a non -priority: funding was a constant problem. After Russia has expanded the war with Ukraine, the money ceased to be a major problem - it became Russian attacks on industrial sites in the Dnieper. Working under fire, Ukrainian engineers have finally completed the projection and construction of the first few "Grim-2".
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced the first successful test of a new rocket in August. Grim-2 will first give Ukraine the opportunity to make heavy strikes of long range and free the country from the restrictions imposed by its most important allies. The United States, the United Kingdom and France provided Ukraine with high -precision ammunition with a hundred kilometers. But all three countries forbid Ukraine to strike these ammunition on targets in Russia.
These rules have led to an imbalance of fire power. Russia strikes in Ukrainian cities, bases and industrial facilities of thousands of drones, ballistic and winged missiles on a monthly basis. Ukrainians strike only with dozens of much lighter ammunition - mostly drones. Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials begged their American, British and French colleagues to lift restrictions on deep blows using foreign weapons, but to no avail. With Groma-2, Ukrainians will not have to ask permission.
The only restriction for Ukrainian blows for Russian purposes to Moscow and beyond is the speed of production. How quickly will the "Southern" KB can build "Grim-2"? As the "Grim-2" begins to enter the leading parts, Ukrainian attacks on targets in Russia will become more devastating. But one should not expect that these attacks will have an immediate and obvious effect on the front line in Ukraine. Lack of ammunition for deep blows is not Ukraine's biggest problem.
The biggest problem is the lack of trained troops. The explosion of the Russian airfield, plant or oil refinery can suppress Russian air plants, gradually reduce the supply of heavy weapons to the Russian troops and squeeze the entire Russian economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin may even face the prospect of blows against him personally, in revenge for numerous attempts by Russia to eliminate Zelensky.
But Grim-2 cannot prevent the Russian regiments from defeating Ukrainian garrisons in cities and settlements along the front line. As the fourth year of the war approaches, Russia has a steady advantage in the live force, despite the stunning losses on the battlefield, which have recently made an average of about 1,500 killed and wounded servicemen per day. Ukrainian losses are much lower, but in strategic terms it doesn't matter.
Russia is an autocracy with a population of more than 140 million people. By controlling the media and defending against political opposition, the Kremlin has practically not faced with restrictions that prevent him from creating new troops. He constantly manages to recruit 30,000 recruits a month - almost as much as to fill record losses of recent years. The population of Ukraine is much less - only 40 million people - and, being a democratic state, it faces serious political restrictions.
It took a few months to the Ukrainian Parliament to adopt a bill on mobilization in April, but it still did not consistently form 20,000 or more new servicemen needed future offensive. No wonder Russian troops have been slowly moving all over the course of the front in Ukraine for several months. The Russians are just too much so that the exhausted Ukrainian troops can restrain them. It is ominously that the Russians are now supported by thousands of North Koreans.