War in 2025: Is Ukraine enough for hostilities, pensions and social payments
The economy of Ukraine, although exhausted due to blackouts, increases the cost of energy, regular attacks of the Russian Federation and rise in expenses and complications of logistics, still shows growth. The Ministry of Economy reported that in January 2025 the Ukrainian economy grew by 1. 5%. Growth drivers remain the construction industry, processing industry, as well as domestic trade, says First Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Oleksiy Sobolev.
According to him, the slowdown in the economic growth in January was due to the decrease in exporters' activity. But high budget financing compensated for a temporary fall in exports of goods. The key factors of growth were: repair of damaged critical infrastructure, capital reconstruction and repair of roads in emergency areas, housing construction. The main forecast of the Ministry of Economic Growth this year - GDP at 2. 7%. This is subject to the continuation of the fighting all 2025.
However, a month ago, the head of the ministry Yulia Sviridenko in Davos said that the active phase of war was expected in 2025. Some economic experts, the forecasts of focus, published the same opinion at the end of 2024. However, there have been many events in recent times that have forced many economists and sectoral experts to look at their own forecasts and hopes for the so -called rapid peace.
Focus explored how Ukraine will live if the war with the Russian Federation lasts the whole year - is there any money? According to experts, there are currently two main scenarios. The first is the continuation of the war all 2025. The second is negotiations and a stop of hostilities until September 2025. "We do not expect that the agreement in any format will be reached in the near future.
In our opinion, for most of the year, the Ukrainian economy will function in those security conditions that have occurred today," Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, head of the Department of Macroeconomic Research, said ICU groups. "I do not see the prerequisites for the completion or termination of hostilities," Dmitry Boyarchuk, the executive director of Case Ukraine, answered the question of the deadline for the end of the war in Ukraine.
The most likely scenario - the war can continue in different forms and with different intensity. Therefore, it is too early to count on a certain date of its completion. And according to financial analyst, a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts Andriy Shevchyshyn, there is still a high probability of completion of the active phase in 2025.
The prerequisites for this are - in particular, they are in the economic situation in the Russian Federation, which is deteriorating, and therefore, the expert says, the Kremlin is potentially ready to enter the negotiating track.
"If the war lasts all year long, Ukraine will need mobilization, and if we do not go out for a negotiating track, we will need to carry out more stringent involvement of people in the army, change the rules of mobilization, and that all leads to the removal from the economy of the part of the people that now now Works. the state budget, and the loss of the real sector of the economy, a significant fall in the amount of tax revenues, " - says Andriy Shevchyshyn.
In his opinion, the basic scenario is the completion of the active phase or freezing in the first half of 2025, and then - long negotiations in the first half of this year. "Projections are a difficult thing, and even in the most stable times they are often uncertain. The fact that at the end of last year, many economists were inclined to think about the completion of the active phase of war in mid -2025, was quite clear on the basis of military events and political schedules.
However In view of the current state of the front and how the situation develops, it is difficult to predict clear terms. A probable scenario can change its stages, and even the most realistic prognosis can be revised depending on new circumstances, especially against the backdrop of events that we all see now, "-says the head of management of management accounting and business analysis of OTP Bank Inna Protear.
And it adds: the most likely scenario - the war can continue in different forms and with different intensity. Therefore, it is too early to count on a certain date of its completion. The prospects for receiving assistance from international partners in 2025 look optimistic, says Inna Protear. According to her, Ukraine has already reached an agreement on a considerable amount of funding, expecting to raise more than $ 38 billion to cover critical non -military expenditures.
The main sources of these funds are the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine (ERA) from G7 countries, as well as the EU program - Ukraine Facility. IMF funding has also been confirmed, which increased the tranche for Ukraine from $ 1. 8 billion to $ 2. 7 billion next year.
"Cooperation with other international financial institutions, including the World Bank, continues, which will make it possible to implement important projects, in particular in the energy sector and the restoration of infrastructure," - said Inna Protar. From the positive: Ukraine has to receive $ 38 billion assistance, and the new US administration will not affect this process that the risks of receiving funds in Ukraine are minimal, Dmitry Boyarchuk says. "We will receive 12.
5 billion euros by Ukraine facility and $ 21. 9 billion in ERA. And he added: if the US will supply air weapons, then we will be able to keep his resistance for another year. Therefore, financial issues for Ukraine this year are closed and funds are guaranteed and in no way depend on the decisions of the new administration in the US. This means that pensions, budget payments and subsidies will be provided with the financial revenues of donor countries.
But for 2026 the risks are already emerging, says Andriy Shevchyshyn. "There are such risks for 2026. Because part there will still be proceeds from frozen funds of the Russian Federation, but for other programs-there is no agreement on them. And the closer it will be by 26 years, the more difficult it will be. How to cover budget gap, ”the expert explained.
In general, experts are convinced that the economy of Ukraine has already shown stability in the conditions of war, but another year of the war can bring difficulties for both business and public finances. "The Ukrainian economy has already shown a great resilience, but another year of the war requires constant adaptation. Readiness for prolonged conflict is limited due to high dependence on external assistance, reduction of domestic production and infrastructure problems.
Risks that will be facing power and business in the event of a long war , include: further growth of public debt, high inflation, budget deficits, and reducing the number of jobs by reducing productivity. Business will be difficult to ensure stability due to increased costs, supplies and safety threats, and the authorities to provide sufficient funding for defense and social programs, "Inna Provar said in a comment on focus.
In the forecasts at the exchange rate in 2025, experts usually indicate a gradual devaluation to approximately 45. 5 UAH per dollar. As focus wrote earlier, Raiffeisen Bank expects that at the end of 2025 the dollar will be 45. 5 UAH, but the average annual rate in 2025 - 43. 3 UAH. The OTP of the bank also talk about moderate devaluation - 10% during the year. According to the basic ICU scenario, the rate of devaluation of the hryvnia in 2025 will not exceed 10%.
Analysts currently indicate that there will be no significant currency fluctuations so far. According to the ICU, the NBU allowed the hryvnia to weaken by only 0. 4%last week, although he was forced to increase the intervention in half-just above the average weekly volume for the entire Russo-Ukrainian war. "The currency deficit in the interbank market has increased almost three times last week - from $ 94 million to $ 250 million.
At the same time, a net purchase in the retail segment decreased by 28% to $ 178 million. Therefore, the total currency deficit on the market has increased by four working days (comparable. Similar to the previous week) to $ 428 million The deficit has led to an increase in NBU interventions by 47% to $ 670 million, "ICU said. Analysts believe that if the market deficit is maintained at a level close to last week, the NBU will be able to maintain the hryvnia exchange rate not far from 42 UAH/USD.
without much changes in the volume of interventions. However, in the future, during 2025, the hryvnia still awaits the devaluation, which will be influenced by the situation with possible peaceful negotiations, the schedule of power at the front, and the volume of the budget deficit, and the timely receipt of the declared volumes of international assistance, and the volume of production and export. "By the end of the year, we go out for a rate of more than 45 UAH per dollar.