To engage in the war of Belarus: how Russia can use blows on its refinery

Military analyst Alexei Kopitko draws attention to one interesting effect that can have strokes on Russian refineries. Some political players in the Russian Federation can use them to involve the Russian media as if they were neglecting an interesting topic. According to various estimates, the strikes on the refinery touched on approximately 10% of Russian oil refining. It seems not critical, but there is a nuance.

According to sectoral and business publications, the vulnerability of the fuel market of the Russian Federation is insufficient volume of internal production of gasoline with an octane number 95+. For example, A-95 may start problems, a shortage in the event of high demand/continuation of shocks. To close the problem, A-95 can be imported. And the most obvious source is the refinery of Belarus. In particular, Mozir is a modern enterprise located 28 km from the border with Ukraine.

Rosmedia involuntarily hints that in the case of deliveries of Belarusian gasoline to the Russian market, this refinery can become a legitimate goal and a good prey. Anything that flies at 50+ km is a threat to him. And in the end, it will turn into ruins. Belarus exports gasoline to third countries. It was not profitable to supply to Russia at lower prices. But in the case of a shortage of prices will rise, there will be a temptation. And older Kremlin comrades can ask.

Now Lukashenko balances on a thin face: he refuses to send troops to Ukraine, although he handed over shells, part of armored vehicles and artillery to the Russian army. Belarusian Schweik and other enterprises serve the Russian army. In general, it earns and loops quietly. Ukraine has always shown restraint in relations with Belarus. Therefore, it was possible to avoid direct clash. There are no special reasons to attack Belarus.

But in the Russian Federation there may be groups that would be glad to make a Mozire refinery and push Kiev with Minsk for their skins. Drones change the trajectory. To fly/be running can on either side. Therefore, the attempt of the Rospropagandators to poin a finger towards Ukraine is a premature appearance with a duty. Lukashenko should think about because the pearl of his assets can be affected. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.