1000 days of war: The results of the invasion - as Putin has expanded NATO and strengthened Ukraine
On November 19, the 1000th day of the Russo-Ukrainian War will be: focus analyzes what the aggressor has managed to achieve and where the Kremlin was much miscalculated. The Ukrainians remember the early morning on February 24, 2022, when, after the nocturnal statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin about the beginning of the so -called "special military operation" or "their", the first aircraft and shells began to explode in the peaceful cities of the country.
Then the Kremlin head for the first time identified the whole war - "demilitarization and denacification of" Ukraine. Although later, even Russian propagandists could not clearly answer what specifically contain these formulations, especially in the sense of "denacification", it is obvious that Putin and his team intended to destroy Ukraine's military potential under the root.
Focus found out whether the Kremlin was able to get closer to the goal in terms of "demilitarization" of Ukraine on the thousandth day of armed conflict, and what the side processes caused Russian aggression. At the end of 2021, Russia demanded that the US and NATO legally binding "security guarantees", which became the culmination of tensions in relations between the Russian Federation and the West, due to the expansion of the Alliance to the East, as well as the situation in Ukraine.
The Russian side has published a project of agreements with the NATO bloc, which provided for legal "security guarantees". It included the following basic requirements: in fact, Moscow put forward this project not as a basis for the search for compromises, but as an ultimatum containing threats of invasion in Ukraine. Such conclusions have been reached by a number of experts against the backdrop of collection of Russian troops to the borders of Ukraine under the guise of "exercises".
To discuss a clear exacerbation in relations between the Russian Federation and the West, on January 21, 2022, a diplomatic meeting of the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia and US Department of USA Sergiy Lavrov and Anthony Blinken took place in Geneva. However, the negotiation participants themselves admitted that they did not expect from a break in the breakthrough, and later Russian diplomats again spoke about the use of "military measures".
A few days before the start of a full -scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, namely on February 19, 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke at the Munich Security Conference, using this platform to emphasize the threat that was hanging over Ukraine. The head of state, in particular, stated that Ukraine tried to convene the consultations of states three times - guarantees of the Budapest Memorandum, but unsuccessfully.
"If they do not take place again or there are no security guarantees for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working, and that all batch solutions of 1994 are in doubt," the Ukrainian president emphasized.
Three days after Zelensky's speech in Munich, Vladimir Putin made an appeal stating that the Ukrainian state was allegedly artificial formation of the Communist era, and Russia recognizes the independence of "Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics", which became a formal reason for large -scale actions. On February 24, 2022, Putin announced the beginning of a "special military operation".
Among other things, the abstracts of "demilitarization and denacification of Ukraine" were voiced, within which the Russian president did not give a detailed description, but from further comments there are several key aspects: therefore, in the context of Putin's statement, "demilitarization" meant not only physical destruction of the military.
Objects, but also the political elimination of the threat, which, according to the Russian authorities, was represented by the Ukrainian army, the military relations of Ukraine with NATO and the possibility of deploying in the country of Western weapons systems. The Russian military operation, started on February 24, 2022, was focused on rapid strikes similar to the tactics of the Storm in the desert.
The strategy envisaged the destruction of the command points of Ukraine with the help of powerful rocket and aviation attacks and the rapid blockade of Ukrainian troops, which could create a direct threat to Kiev. The main tasks covered: Russia launched a full -scale invasion of massive missile strikes on the objects of management of Ukrainian armed forces, air defense systems, aerodromes and ammunition depots.
According to the reports of the Ministry of Defense, during the first week the headquarters of two military districts were allegedly destroyed, the weapons and large volumes of Ukrainian aviation equipment were seriously damaged. At the same time, the strikes of the Russians came to civilian objects, which led to losses among the civilians.
This, for its part, contributed to the unity of Ukrainians, as evidenced by the statistics of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces with volunteers and queues in military enlistment offices. However, despite these blows, the Ukrainian army managed to maintain controllability, and a large part of the ammunition and equipment was evacuated and dispersed, which helped the IDU continue organized resistance.
Difficulties with the destruction of key objects of Ukrainian air defense and command limited the success of the first days of the operation. With the beginning of the terrestrial stage of the invasion, the Russian army launched an offensive in many directions throughout the border. The second phase involved the promotion of armored vehicles in the Kiev and Kharkiv directions - they sought to surround large city centers.
However, Russian columns have encountered serious logistics problems, especially in spring off -road conditions, when the movement of Ukrainian black earth has become practically impossible for heavy equipment. Roads along the western and northern regions, densely covered with forests and swamps, became deadly due to the ambushes of the Armed Forces.
The Ukrainian military, understanding the vulnerability of the long columns of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, especially on narrow and poorly protected roads, organized attacks on closing units, violating communication and supply. Baracar drones were used for sighting of air defense equipment and enemy command points. As a result, the Russian troops failed to keep the advanced line and develop a deep breakthrough in the northwest, despite successful actions in the initial stages.
One of the key tasks for the capture of the Ukrainian capital was the attack on the Great Airfield in Gostomel, where the landing of the main forces with the help of GVA was planned. But despite the successful first stage, the Russians failed to develop the initiative. Within two weeks, the Kyiv region became the arena of fierce battles.
From the beginning of the second week, the invasion of Russian troops has tried to gain a foothold in such suburbs of Kiev as Bucha and Irpin, but constantly experienced artillery strikes and lost a considerable amount of armored vehicles. The situation in the south of Ukraine was also not in favor of the occupation troops, although the Armed Forces quickly took control of Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk and Energodar, where the largest Zaporizhzhya NPP is located in Europe.
However, despite the breakthrough in the steppe zones of the Southern Front, Russian troops suffered great losses in Kherson's suburbs and on the approaches to Nikolaev. As a result, the offensive on Odessa, strategically important for the Russians, was stopped and the Ukrainian forces were accessed to supplying weapons from abroad. By the end of the first month of fighting, it became clear that the Russian military campaign had not achieved the planned goals.
Despite the first successes, Russian troops were unable to destroy the entire air defense system of Ukraine, completely suppress its aviation or take control of large strategic points.
In addition, significant losses among the Air Force of the Russian Federation have led to the fact that the flights of Russian aviation in most of the Ukrainian territory almost stopped by the end of the second week of the invasion, when the Armed Forces began to use Igla MSCs and Stinger complexes obtained from Western partners, as well as means Air defense, which failed to destroy, for example, S-300 SPR.
This forced the Russians aviation to act at a greater distance and avoid deep blows on Ukraine's infrastructure. The situation on the water can be noted separately. Although the Russian fleet on the Black Sea had a significant advantage, its actions were also limited.
And the destruction of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation - the cruiser "Moscow" - became not only the reputational defeat of Moscow, but also the beginning of the systematic release of the Black Sea from the enemy's ships, which, among other things, participated in the kicks in Ukraine. Thus, the first months of the conflict revealed the difficulties of conducting a lightning operation and significant logistics and tactical obstacles encountered by Russian troops.
The command system, the patency of the territories, the need for long -term rear supply lines and the limited possibilities of fighting fights in dense urban development complicated the implementation of the tasks set by Putin. In this regard, it is also worth noting the very controversial decision of the High Military Command of the Russian Federation under the control of Mariupol.
Despite the success of the Armed Forces, due to the grueling battles and the siege of "Azovstal", the Russian forces spent a lot of time and effort, having eventually lost the offensive pace, which is extremely important in blitz crisis. After a failed blitz and a talentless offensive operation, Russia was forced to leave the northern regions of Ukraine, focusing on battles in Donetsk region.
The situation with the capture of large settlements was limited only by Kherson's occupation, but by November 2022 it became clear that the enemy would not be able to keep the city in front of the offensive of the Ukrainian forces. As a result, on November 11, Kherson was released and the invaders lost the only regional center that was occupied as a result of a full -scale invasion. At the same time, Western allies of Kiev began to actively supply the forces of defense forces of weapons.
And if at the beginning of the conflict it was about systems such as MSRC, PTRC and drones, then Ukraine received Western tanks, artillery, modern volley fire and air defense systems, long -range air base missiles and, finally, Western fighters. In other words, as the "result of its" Moscow received a motivated opponent armed with a wide range of systems and the latest samples of Western weapons.
Separately note the losses of the Russians in living force and technology, which over two years of the war significantly undermined the potential of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. According to the Armed Forces General Staff, which is confirmed by Western sources, by the end of October 2024, Russia lost more than 700,000 servicemen. And the losses in military equipment are calculated by tens of thousands of units.
As mentioned above, Moscow was categorically against Ukraine's accession to NATO, trying to exert diplomatic pressure on the Alliance. But if Putin had some variants on the geopolitical board before the full -scale invasion of Putin, then after aggression against Ukraine, Russia received two more NATO members, at the same time one of them was a direct neighbor. It is about Sweden and Finland, which has the length of the border from the Russian Federation more than 1200 km.
That is, after Finland's accession to NATO, the length of the land border between Russia and member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance has almost doubled. Probably, under such conditions, the Kremlin could no longer on the foreign policy track continue to promote the narrative on the need for demilitarization of Ukraine, although in the statements of the Russian authorities and Putin himself are still heard words about "the free goals of their goals.
" Here you can observe the political hypocrisy of Moscow, as evidenced by the speech of the Russian President on June 14 before the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation on the eve of the Peace summit in Switzerland, where representatives of the Russian Federation were not invited.
Putin marked two key conditions for the beginning of peace talks with Ukraine: withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the territory of four regions - Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson, as well as the refusal of Kiev to join NATO. At the same time, he stressed that the withdrawal of troops should be made from the territory of these regions within their administrative borders. Putin also demanded that Ukraine refuse to join NATO, having acquired "neutral, extra -apart, non -nuclear status.
" Judging by the logic of such statements, the "demilitarization" of Ukraine now has, to put it mildly, another context, unlike the rhetoric that sounded from Russia before the invasion. The only conditional geopolitical achievement of Putin against the background of the Russo-Ukrainian war was the significant expansion of the International Brics Association, which is positioned as an alternative block to the Western Alliances.
The Kremlin head in his speeches repeatedly declared the formation of a "multipolar world". However, the question remains whether aggression against Ukraine has affected the strengthening of relations between the countries of the Global South, or BRICS - an objective phenomenon on the geopolitical map.
Undoubtedly, the situation on Earth shows that Russia has occupied some of the Ukrainian territory during a full -scale war during a full -scale war, but it should be acknowledged that on the thousandth day of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces control less than in the first months of full -scale aggression.
Despite the fact that the enemy currently has a tactical initiative on the front, he never manages to return even those territories in Kharkiv and Kherson regions, which were lost due to "regrouping" and making "difficult decisions". Moreover, Ukraine was able to conduct the so -called Kursk operation, taking control of part of the territory of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region, which was a surprise even for Western partners.
Thus, on the background of the ongoing fighting, on October 16, President Zelensky presented his Victory Plan in the Verkhovna Rada, consisting of five points and three secret applications. It contains both geopolitical achievements and steps to restrain Russia. First of all, the Head of State called on to immediately invite Ukraine to NATO, which, in his opinion, would strengthen the geopolitical stability of the country and bring it closer to the collective security of the Alliance.
The second point envisages the expansion of military operations in the territory of Russia, the removal of restrictions on strikes, the destruction of Russian aviation together with allies. In addition, Ukraine proposes the placement of non -nuclear strategic restraining weapons on its territory to protect against possible threats from Russia.