Russian paper tiger: why NATO is in vain is afraid of Putin

Western analysts claim that Moscow loses its hybrid war, and the strategy of coercion through the strikes on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine has proved to be extremely unsuccessful. Vladimir Putin has long been seen as a serious military threat, but its last failures, especially in Ukraine, show more unattractive reality. Despite loud statements and aggressive tactics, hybrid wars of Russia, which combine ordinary and unconventional means, are constantly failure.

Focus has translated the analytical article by Brandon Valerian and Ryan K. Menness about whether the Russian Federation under the leadership of Vladimir Putin is a real threat. Mennessa about whether the Russian Federation under the leadership of Vladimir Putin poses a real threat.

Why did so many people misunderstand the intentions of Vladimir Putin from the very beginning? How did it turn out that no one was responsible for the rough incompetence in assessing military efficiency? Many people in this area are one task: to think and study how Russia uses modern weapons. However, they often do not pay attention to the behavior and results of Russia.

In our book "Modern Hybrid War: Russia Against the West", which is being prepared for publication, we will describe in detail these failures. As we claimed in 2015 in the article in Foreign Affairs, Russia has always been and will be a paper tiger, mostly unable to achieve its goals by forceful methods. Back in 2007, the world watched how Russia threatened Estonia, launched a modern cybersecurity. But this attack caused only a lot of noise out of nothing.

She did not influence great influence, and if the hope of its organizers was on the return of Estonia to Russian orbit, then she resolutely failed. The five -day conflict with Georgia in 2008 also led to the fact that the vast majority of Georgians wanted to join the European Union (EU) and NATO, according to a survey conducted by 2023.

In 2014, Russia successfully seized Crimea and unleashed civil riots in the Donbass, but at that time Ukraine was also not ready for a conventional war with Russia. Everything changed in 2022, when Ukraine spent eight years to reform the army and training. With the support of Western coaches, weapons and intelligence, as well as due to its own ingenuity, for example, in the use of FPV-punks, Ukraine managed to reflect Russia's offensive and protect most of its territory.

On the other hand, the Russian army has proved to be ineffective combat force suffering from corruption, low moral spirit, incompetence and bad command. The Russian military, who once inspired fear, turned out to be paper tigers. Catastrophic defeats under Gostomel and Kiev in the first days of the invasion were shown how Russian military was not ready for this battle.

In the conditions where the war has come to a dead end and in parallel, the invasion of Ukrainian troops into Russia in the Kursk region, Putin continues the war with even more enthusiasm, which seems to be increasingly hopeless for him every day. The hybrid strategy of war on Russia includes both ordinary military and unconventional, such as cyber and information operations, electronic war and rigid energy policy.

But Russia's capabilities in these unconventional means were insufficient during the war. Ukraine has been able to withstand many of the Cyber ​​-operatives against its military and critical infrastructure, and Russia has resorted to the help of shaped Iranian drones to achieve its goals.

The famous operations of Russia, although successful in the country, were not successful in the international audience, since most governments and the population did not buy Russian versions that justify the invasion of the neighboring country. The Russian electronic war opposes the use of Western equipment by Ukraine, which actually negates any advantage in this space. The possibilities of using energy for coercion were extremely unsuccessful.

Ukraine, which partially depended on Russian gas and at one time served as an important transiter of Russian gas to Europe, will finally cease supply at the end of 2024. Germany, a country that constantly supported the idea of ​​rehabilitation of Russia through economic integration, returned to Western Europe again, and her dreams of the Nord Stream Gas pipeline went. Europe realized that it could do without Russian gas.

The problem of Russian energy capabilities and their failures in the military sphere emphasize the inefficiency for Russia of hybrid war. Will Russia be able to recover and become a threat to NATO? Constant failures lead to some improvements. Russia will reproduce its combat formations and revise the doctrine of war, taking into account lessons from Ukraine. The problem is that the Russian army is not a professional combat force because it does not adhere to democratic values.

Instead, it will spend people and life without much consequences. It can afford failure again and again, achieving minor success, because any reports can be fake and decorated. The real choice for NATO is: whether to pay attention to the paper tiger on the border, which roars, demanding that NATO member states continue to restrain aggression by those who do not attach any sovereignty and seek to restore the Russian Empire.

When we hear a paper tiger, we smile and move on to more significant problems in the international community. When others hear this roar, they shudder, forgetting that a tiger is a mouse that hides behind a stuffed cute teddy bear. Truly, paper tiger. Brandon Valerian-Associate Professor of Seton-Hall University at a diplomacy school and a guest researcher of the Royal Danish Defense College. Ryan K. Menes-Associate Professor of the Department of Defense Analysis of Navy.