Projectiles in exchange for food: what weapon Putin wants to get from Kim Jong -in
According to The New York Times, Kim Jong -in will arrive in Russia from Pyongyan at an armored train. The sources of the publication also did not exclude a possible visit to Moscow. It is said that the North Korean leader plans to visit and a pier 33-a naval base of the Russian Federation in Vladivostok, where ships of the Pacific Fleet are moored. Also, one of the potential stops of Kim after Vladivostok is the Eastern Cosmodrom, Space Starting Center. The visit is not officially confirmed.
On September 5, Presidential President Dmitry Peskov asked whether a visit to the North Korean leader to Russia was preparing, to which he replied: "We have nothing to tell you on this topic. " However, it is likely that an agreement on a future visit was reached during a July visit by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigy to Pyongyan, where he arrived, to celebrate with the North Korean leader the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, which was divided into two parts.
Among the main goals that Kim Jong-in can pursue by going to Russia, military-technical cooperation, as well as the supply of humanitarian and financial assistance in North Korea, whose poorly developed economy has been seriously affected after the coronavirus pandemic. Due to the closure of the borders, the ban on imports (in particular, grain from China, fertilizers and agricultural equipment), the country is experiencing a mass hunger, the Air Force reports.
Lack of labor through the "fever" epidemic led to a large -scale crop failure. The risk of a humanitarian catastrophe prompted Kim Jong -in to allow regular flights to two friendly DPRK countries - China and Russia. The DPRK also needs petroleum products and solid currency. "Any help that Kim will receive for the civilian sector of his economy can release the resources that can be spent on his nuclear weapons program," Bloomberg notes.
According to Bloomberg, North Korea has significant ammunition reserves that can be calculated by millions of units. These reserves include 122 and 152 millimeter artillery shells, as well as 122 mm rockets required by the Russian Federation. In addition, North Korea can supply Russian spare parts to tanks such as T-54 and T-62, as it has large reserves of Soviet technology. Pyongyang's willingness to convey ammunition, however, raises doubts.
Kim Jong -in and the North Korean elite paranoidly afraid of external threat, not only from the US and South Korea, but also China in particular. China uses the DPRK as a buffer from the US military contingent stationed in South Korea and supports the survival of the regime as necessary evil. However, in Pyongyang, they are wary of the Celestial, remembering how China planned Kim Il Sen's overthrow during the Cold War.
Given the severity of the threat and the fact that North Korea is seriously preparing to repel a potential attack by hostile states, it can hardly be assumed that the DPRK will transfer to Russia ammunition in the right amount that will affect the situation on the Ukrainian front. The transfer of weapons, however, is quite possible in exchange for food, humanitarian, financial assistance. Moreover, the most likely deliveries have already been made, in particular, for the Wagner PEC.
There are cases where the Armed Forces servicemen found ammunition of North Korean production. There are ammunition for becomes of artillery, for rockets of volley fire-a weapon that North Korea received in the 1960s and 1980s from the Soviet Union and was able to establish its own production. It is likely that Kim Jong -in tries to use a trip to Russia as a trigger for Western countries, first of all, for the United States.
North Korea economy is in a miserable state and in order to remedy the situation, Pyongyang must weaken the sanction regime. Going to Russia, meeting Putin, negotiating on possible weapons supplies, which can be used on the front against Ukraine, Kim Jong -in tries to attract attention and encourage Washington to communicate.
US Presidential Advisor Joe Baiden on National Security Jake Sullivan said North Korea would face the consequences in the event of Russia's weapons for use in the war against Ukraine. "We will continue to urge North Korea to fulfill obligations and not supply weapons to Russia," Sullivan assured. Thus, the United States express their readiness to restore direct dialogue with the North Korean regime.
Kim Jong -in probably will also be in exchange for refusal to supply weapons for Russia, for example, a weakening of sanctions. Direct dialogue with Washington is important for North Korea in the context of legitimizing nuclear status. Nuclear weapons for the DPRK is the only guarantee of safety and storage.
Developing quantitatively and qualitatively nuclear potential, the DPRK thus tries to protect from potential external intervention by, for example, the United States and South Korea, whose purpose can deconstruct the regime. Pyongyang is not ready to refuse nuclear weapons, but it becomes more and more difficult to exist in complete isolation against the background of global crises.
Therefore, Pyongyang is ready to find a compromise with the United States to weaken isolation, provided that the nuclear arsenal is preserved with limited quantitative reduction.
Of course, Kim Jong-in trip to the Russian Federation is important in the ideological and propaganda context-as a tool for influencing the North Korean public and a way to demonstrate that the DPRK is not a country-country, and there are states in the world, ready to cooperate, which divide the general ideological base, as Here's a hatred of a event led by the United States.
In addition, it will promote the cultural cult and will be used as proof that the country's leader - Sun Kim Jong -in - develops diplomatic relations for the benefit of the people. Moreover, this happens at the same time as strengthening the defense capability of the state against the backdrop of "imperialist" threat. On September 8, they announced the construction of a "tactical atomic submarine" as part of the efforts to strengthen the Navy of the DPRK.
According to the North Korean State Information Agency KCNA, a new submarine was presented on Wednesday at the ceremony in the presence of Kim Jong -in, who stated that the descent of the submarine No. 841, which was named Hero Kun Kun Oka, marks the new head of the new head of strengthening the Navy forces of the DPRK. " According to the North Korean leader, the submarine will become "one of the main submarine offensive remedies of the North Korean Navy.
" Kim Jong -in stated that the DPRK was converting her submarines to warships, equipped with nuclear weapons. According to the American Analytical Center Nuclear Threat Initiative, North Korea has from 64 to 86 submarines, it is one of the largest submarine fleets in the world, but there are doubts about its quality and whether the submarines are in working order.
In Russia, the arrival of the DPRK leader will also be used as an irritant for the United States, because the "weapon equipment" and a potential alliance with the odious North Korean regime can not but cause concern in the White House. It is unlikely to function effectively, however, such an alliance is unlikely to be capable of the successful sanction policy of the Western states against the DPRK and the Russian Federation and the difficult economic situation of North Korea.
For Ukraine, communication between the Russian Federation and the DPRK is not a critical threat in view of the dubious prospects of the bilateral union - but should remain in focus of attention and become motivated to greater involvement in the regional agenda of the Korean Peninsula.