The only way to finish war: how to force Russia to recognize Ukraine
At least 88,000 Russian soldiers were likely to be killed (at the most modest grades) and at least twice as much were injured. Billions of dollars, Russian tanks, planes, artillery, helicopters, armored vehicles and warships were destroyed. If you provided such a result before the war - and no one did it - it would seem fantastic.
No one would believe that President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, a professional comedian, will be able to lead a country that is at war that the democratic world will be sufficiently united to help him or that Russian President Vladimir Putin will withstand such humiliation.
Ukraine, the United States and the European Union have achieved something outstanding: working together, they not only preserved the Ukrainian state, but also repelled the international hooligan, whose nihilism is detrimental to the world. Putin supports extremely right and extremist movements in Europe, provides thugs to support African dictatorships and plot with China, Iran, Venezuela and other autocrats.
From the very beginning, Putin hoped that the war would demonstrate: American power and American alliances can be defeated not only in Ukraine but also everywhere. He still does it, and for this purpose the war remains useful to him. The fighting creates a lack of food in Africa, thus generating new excitement and more demand for Russian mercenaries. The war also ignites dissatisfaction in Europe, giving impetus to pro -Russian parties.
Americans and Europeans view riots in the country as a series of isolated conflicts, but Putin does not think that Ukraine and the Middle East belong to different, competing areas. On the contrary, since the beginning of the gas conflict, he has intensified his relations with Iran, invited Hamas leaders to Moscow, hoping that the spread of violence would reduce Ukraine's support from the West. Iranian drones terrorize Ukrainian cities; Iran, for its part, supplies Russian weapons to its proxy.
Hezbollas are believed to have Russian anti-ship missiles that it can use at any time against US warships in the Mediterranean. The struggle of allies against Russia in Ukraine has harmful Russia's ability to produce negative power in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. But despite his huge losses, Putin still believes that time is on his side. If he fails to win the battlefield, he will win by using political intrigues and economic pressure.
He will wait for the democratic world to split and promote this split. He will wait for the Ukrainians to get tired and try to make it happen too. He will wait for Donald Trump to win the US presidential election in 2024 and will do everything possible to happen.
Right now, Putin is betting on republicans who repeat Russian propaganda - for example, Senator JD Vance repeats Russian words about a war in Ukraine, which leads to "global disorder" and "escalation"; A member of the Matt Hetz House of Representatives, as evidence of a source in the Chinese media, asking questions about the alleged Ukrainian neo -Nazis at Congress hearings; Vivek Ramasvami, a presidential candidate from the Republican Party, also called Nazis Zelensky, who is a Jew.
Putin will be supported by the new speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, who deliberately detaines the military and financial assistance needed by Ukraine to continue the fighting. The additional bill, which he refuses to approve, contains money that will provide Ukrainians with air defense systems they need to protect their cities, as well as the financial support they need to maintain their economy and critically important infrastructure in the coming months.
The US provides about a third of Ukraine's financial needs - the rest comes from the European Union, global institutions, as well as the taxes and bonds purchased by the Ukrainians themselves - but without this assistance, Ukraine will be difficult to survive winter. Part of Republican resistance to Ukraine's helping to fight the American opponent is just a perverted desire to see President Joe Baiden's failure. The rest comes from the fears that Ukraine will not win.
Summer Ukrainian counter -offensive really had some success, especially on the Black Sea, where the combination of drones and missiles greatly weakened the Russian fleet and forced some of its ships to leave the Crimean port of Sevastopol. But the advance on land was slow. Ukraine's ability to cause enormous losses in Russia was not enough to cause a negative reaction or view of views in Moscow.
General Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian commander -in -chief, recently called the war a "pathogenic situation". Although Zaluzhny also described in detail the technologies he needed to promote his army forward and release from this desperate situation, his statement resumed conversations in the West about a truce or ceasefire. Some unscrupulously call for ceasefire. In fact, they want Russia's victories or at least Baiden's defeat. Others, however, stand for a truce with the best motives.
They believe that since Putin will never seem, the losses should be restricted to Ukraine. Recently, I have heard a few kind people, all supporters of Ukraine, claim that this conflict can end in the same way as the Korean War once ended, freezing borders on the current front line, and the rest of Ukraine, such as South Korea, protected by American security guarantees and even US bases.
All these proposals, good intentions or not, have the same drawback: ceasefire, temporary or otherwise means that both parties have to stop fighting. Right now, even if Zelensky agrees to negotiate, there is no evidence that Putin wants to negotiate, that he wants to stop hostilities or that he ever wanted to stop hostilities. And so, according to Western officials who periodically communicate with their Russian colleagues, attempts to find out were done.
There is also no evidence that Putin wants to share Ukraine by retaining only the territories he occupies now, and the rest to allow to flourish like South Korea. Its purpose remains the destruction of Ukraine - all of Ukraine - and its allies and propagandists still say that, having achieved this goal, they will continue to expand their empire.
Just last week, Dmitry Medvedev, a former President of Russia, published an article of 8,000 words, calling Poland a "historical enemy" of Russia and threatening the Poles to the loss of their state. The message was absolutely clear: we have already invaded Poland and we can do it again. In this sense, the challenge that Putin chases Europe and the rest of the world has not changed since February 2022.
If we give up what we have already achieved and refuse to support Ukraine, the result can still be a military or political conquest. Ukraine. The conquest of Ukraine can still expand the capabilities of Iran, Venezuela, Syria and other Putin allies. It can still encourage China to invade Taiwan. This can still lead to a new type of Europe, in which Poland, the Baltic countries and even Germany are under constant physical threat, with all the consequences arising from here for trade and prosperity.
Europe, which is constantly in a state of war, an idea that seems impossible for most people in the West, still seems to be the highest of plausible Russian president. Putin spent a commemorative part of his life as an officer of the KGB, representing the interests of the Soviet Empire in Dresden. He remembers the times when East Germany was guided by Moscow.
If it could be once, why not do it again? The strict truth is that this war will end forever only when Russia's neo -imperial dream will finally die. Just as in 1962, the French decided that Algeria could become independent of France, as the British recognized that Ireland was no longer part of the United Kingdom, so the Russians should conclude that Ukraine is not Russia. I can't tell you what political changes in Moscow are needed to achieve this goal.
I cannot say if another Russian leader is needed - maybe so, and maybe not. But we recognize this change when it happens. After that, the conflict will end and the negotiations on the final settlement will be possible. To reach this finale, we need to adjust our thinking. First, we need to understand, deeper than we have done so that we have entered a new era of conflict between the great powers. The Russians already know this and have already made a transition to a full -scale military economy.
Forty percent of the Russian state budget (another conservative estimate) is now spent annually on military production, which is about 10 percent of GDP, a level that has not been observed for decades. Neither the US nor their European allies did anything like that, and we started with a low base.
Jack Wtling from the Royal Institute of the Armed Forces told me that at the beginning of the war of ammunition, which the United Kingdom was producing a year, was enough to provide the Ukrainian army for 20 hours. Although the situation has improved, as production is gradually gaining momentum throughout the democratic world, we are not moving quickly.
Secondly, we need to help the Ukrainians to wage this war as if we fought it, changing our slow decision-making process according to the relevance of the moment.
Ukraine received a weapon for summer battles very late, which gave the Russians to build mine fields and tank traps - why? In some cases, the training of Ukrainian soldiers was hasty and incomplete - why? There is still time to correct these errors: the list of breakthrough technologies of Zaluzhny, which contains tools to gain preference in the air and improve the efficiency of radio electronic wrestling, should be taken seriously now, not next year.
But the path to the end of this war lies not only through the battlefield. We need to start thinking not only about helping Ukraine, but also about victory over Russia-or if you prefer another language, to persuade Russia to go in any possible way. If Russia is already fighting America and its allies on several fronts, using political funding, influence campaigns and its ties with other autocrats and terrorist organizations, then the US and Europe also need to repel several fronts.
We must exceed Russia in the competition for scarce products needed to produce weapons, block the software updates needed to work their defense plants, and look for ways to sabotage their production facilities. This year, Russia has used fewer weapons and ammunition than last year. Our task should be that next year is even worse. The event has already imposed sanctions on Russia and introduced export control over electronics and many other components necessary for the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Although paradoxically, such sanctions can now be too many, and it is difficult to track and ensure compliance, especially when the materials pass through third or fourth countries. Instead, we have to go on the most important supply chains, depriving the Russians of the specific machines and raw materials they need for the production of the most modern weapons. At the beginning of the war, the United States and their allies froze Russia's foreign exchange deposits.
The assets of many Russian oligarchs were also frozen in the hope that this would increase their tendency to resist the war. With some exceptions, this did not happen. Now it's time to pick up these assets and pass them on to Ukraine. We need to demonstrate that our commitment to the principle of compensation by Russia to Ukraine is real. But some of our money is also needed. By spending them now, you will be able to save in the future, and not only because we can prevent catastrophe in Ukraine.