Boil a frog: Why a price threshold for oil from Russian Federation at $ 60 on now is better than $ 30

Many people say - it was necessary to show the Russian Federation "Kuzkina Mother", and set the price of $ 30 at the barrel of her oil. Disagree with this restrictions consist of two parts: 1. The complete embargo of Europe. Europeans will not buy more oil from Russia (there is an exception for three countries - Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, they can continue to buy what comes to them by the Friendship oil pipeline, but it is very small). 2.

Restrictions on oil trade with Russia higher than the price of cutting at $ 60 per barrel. What is the limit? Companies from "good countries" are forbidden to transport the sea and insure the transportation of any vessels (also from "bad" countries) with Russian oil, if its cost exceeds $ 60 per barrel. If everything is clear with the first - the oil that used to go in Europe, the Russians will need to be redirected to prevent Russia without income.

The Russians, it turns out, has already bought 104 old tankers (for $ 16 billion - it is nice!) To carry oil themselves and not depend on tankers from "good countries". Financial Times notes that Russia needs 240 tankers to completely redirect what was previously sold to Europe. I think they will seek. But it is only $ 1 million barrels a day. So with the second part - everything is not so obvious. The cutting price was set at $ 60 per barrel (today the market price is $ 89).

And they also decided that every two months could view this price both sides - but not more than 5%. Many have read different articles and blogs - that Russia had to "show Kuzkin's mother" and set this price, say, $ 30 per barrel. It is important to say here that 90% of marine ship insurance market is controlled by companies from London and Europe. Without such insurance, a normal port will be afraid to take a tanker.

And to insure all the vessels by Russia by the forces -they will not have enough forces (I mean -financial resources). Here we remember the parable of a frog, which was cooked slowly so that it does not jump. Setting a price threshold of $ 60 per barrel is about the same. And we need Russia to accept new conditions of the game. So that Russian oil does not disappear from the market. Otherwise, prices can rise very much - and recession can begin in the world.