400 thousand soldiers for Putin. As in Russia looking for reserves for war in Ukraine
The authorities of some regions are preparing for exercises and military meetings. Rumors about the second wave of mobilization are becoming more and more, and the Kremlin and the State Duma soothe - there is nothing to worry. The first mass issuance of stories was arranged in Voronezh, Penzen and Lipetsk regions. The Agora Human Rights Organization calculated by March 16, 43 regions where summaries were presented. Moscow, St.
Petersburg and remote from the center-Altai, Dagestan and Udmurtia were included in the list. There is no data about Chechnya. The capital's military enlistment offices went even further - they are asked to appear on the summons of students who have a deferral from the army. In a conversation with RTVI, the deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Yuriy Shvitkin explained that the presentation of the summons does not mean instant departure of men to Ukraine.
"After the announcement, a message should be issued. Looking to whom the summons came, it is necessary to look specifically. There are some nuances, that is, he can get a summons as a conscript or, roughly speaking, under the mobilization to fall - it is important to know. The father of three children may be a person of conscript age," Said the politician.
President President President Dmitry Peskov in communication with journalists on March 15, the question about the second wave of mobilization answered: "We have repeatedly talked. We do not have any discussions on this. . The head of the Agora group Pavel Chikov notes that it is too early to associate the mass distribution of stories with the expected second wave of mobilization. Russians can call the military enlistment office to clarify the data and during the selection for the military assembly.
The last point raises the question, since the meeting is held only after the decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and not on the basis of the decision of local officials. The conscripts for the military assembly have a separate status - such a mobilized formally not yet military, but it is little different from it in rights, said a member of the college "Lawyers and Business" Mikhail Romanov. "[Russian] mobilization laws allow military enlistment offices to interpret them freely.
The people who fell under the first wave of mobilization, entering the military enlistment office, could almost could not come out of it. - A serviceman. He will go to serve where they will be ordered, "he said. URA. RU, with reference to sources in the Ural leadership, writes about the plans of the Ministry of Defense of Russia in the near future to recruit up to 400 thousand contractors. Large -scale employment work is designed to start in April, along with spring conscription.
And unofficial training began in February, the interlocutors assure. According to the agency, the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev controls the campaign. He regularly holds thematic meetings from February 22 with the participation of governors and authorized representatives of the president. The quotas under contracts were brought to regional authorities.
For example, the standard for Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions - an average of 10 thousand signatures by the end of the year. For the Perm region-less than 9 thousand people, says the source in the Yamalo-Nenets AO government. The contractors will hire military enlistment offices on the ground. Governors of Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions instructed the mayors to control the set of contractors in municipalities.
The City Halls have already begun to announce the recruitment of contractors in the Far North, in the Navy, military commanders throughout Russia. And in April, according to the interlocutors, the infocons will strengthen. In the Perm region, the issue of providing future contractors with equipment is addressed. In the coalition of Russian human rights activists consider the activation of troops a sign of the beginning of a new wave of mobilization.
Back in October, the conscripts received summons, which was written that by the Presidential Decree on "partial mobilization", they should come to military enlistment offices in April. The lawyer advises the conscripts to issue a power of attorney for loved ones and to prepare a statement that participation in hostilities is contrary to moral conviction.
The Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Vadim Denysenko in conversation with Focus emphasizes that rotation in the ranks of the Russian military should be expected not earlier than August. During the spring call, they will be forced to sign army contracts for service in Ukraine. "For a summons, a person comes to the military enlistment office, and they say, look, they can take you just like that, or on a contract - it will be better," he says.
It should be noted that the distribution of the narratives fits into the implementation of Putin's decree to increase the staffing of military personnel by 137 thousand people from January 1, 2023.
Looking at Putin's military ambitions, the question arises - is there enough resources in Moscow for a new stage of conflict? The American edition of Politico, referring to customs data, found that China supplied to Russian companies up to 1000 machines, parts of drones and other equipment for military needs. And in December 2022, the Russian Federation, according to the newspaper, purchased more than 800 tons of bulletproof vests from Turkey.
Vadim Denysenko is convinced that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation can resolve the issue of providing troops with small arms and provisions. "Despite the budget deficit in the area of 6-7 trillions of rubles and harvesting about 300 billion rubles from business representatives, money will remain on retirement, salaries for officials and security officers, as well as war. Unfortunately, they will have enough money," he says focus .
In the absence of weapons, Russia will place orders in North Korea, but in the case of heavy weapons the opportunity narrows, Denysenko says. "Despite the opening of production lines in defense plants, it will be difficult to provide 400,000 soldiers with precise weapons. There is time, because they will be harvested within 4-6 months, and then they will be taught," he added.
Military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov emphasizes the difference in the amount of mobilization resource between Ukraine and Russia. "In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the constant rotation - the front and the rear become larger. They do not want to declare martial law and complete mobilization and use another technique - calling to military enlistment offices and reconciliation of passport data so that men themselves sign contracts with the army of the Russian Federation," he says.
The expert notes the activation of the set in various PECs, including Wagner. "The contractors recruited can be prepared by June 2023, not earlier. Ukraine is in danger, since the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation impose the style of fighting of the Second World War - who has more personnel, the one and the plus. The small Soviet army will not win the great. Until we have a lot of Western weapons that exceeds the characteristics of the Soviet, the one who has more people.
Old Russian T-62 tanks shoot and kill. We could not make up to 9 invaders for each of our dead military ", - he said. The Professor of the British Academy and the Department of Military Research of the Royal College of London David Joe in an article for Foreign Policy draws attention to Putin's desire to get out of the trap of a full -scale war in Ukraine. To do this, he needs new soldiers - a constant engine of war.
Vladimir Putin was in the situation of many world leaders who forced to justify the continuation of the war in the failure of the initial Casus Belli (a formal reason for the start of the war). Failures demanded new troops in the conditions of growing military expenditures, according to the material. "Officials of George Bush Jr. Jr. changed the arguments in favor of the war in Iraq, as soon as Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction.
The original goal of the invasion evaporated like water in the desert. " Taliban "in Afghanistan. The US troops remained for the next two decades. Their shameful departure returned the Taliban to power, "the author writes. Losing people and resources and showing nothing is the catastrophe of any leader of any country, and the end of the war in a less profitable situation than at the beginning is even worse. Putin realizes that if he loses, he will be accused of all failures.