The Kremlin does not need Ukraine. Why Putin wants to finish as soon as possible here and go on

The analyst Anatoly Amelin believes that Putin now wants a ceasefire in Ukraine more than anyone. According to Amelin, Putin needs a break to regroup and prepare for the next war - with one of NATO countries. It sounds strange, but Putin wants a ceasefire more than anyone else! There are several reasons: the latter sounds strange, but quite realistic. Intelligence representatives this fall reported several times that Russia is developing plans to attack NATO countries.

It would seem where Russia is exhausted in Ukraine, and where is the NATO Big Army strong? But everything is wrong. The totality of all these factors showed the dwarf his fatal mistake. It was necessary to start the war from one of the NATO countries that would not have time to apply the article 5, as the war would be over (such plans, as far as I know, were in 2019). Now Putin is beginning to prepare for the Great War. 1.

Russia's support for conflicts similar to what happened in Israel on October 7 has shown its effectiveness. 2. A break in the war with Ukraine needs Putin as an investment of time in a sharp extension of his army for the future blitz. 3. Increasing shelling of Ukraine and continuous offensive activity performs two tasks: 4. Most likely, the issue of negotiations will be raised in April 2024 immediately after Putin's democratic elections (by the way, the Chinese confirm me this period). 5.

Ukraine will receive security guarantees (with likely) and funding to restore the destroyed infrastructure. 6. Further Russia will play on dissatisfaction with Ukrainian society. After all, we have created expectations of victory, but not frost. Therefore, the scenario that will prepare a dwarf in Ukraine - mass protests and possible forceful overthrow of power (no matter who). The very fact of growing chaos and will be the necessary result. 7.

Why do chaos in Ukraine need? In the case of the Great War, Russia - Europe, the USA - China, the important role of Ukraine - to be an ally of the Western countries and the supplier of simple post -Soviet military equipment. Chaos multiplies by zero these plans for our partners (and they are). Plus, the country where chaos is not needed, it will fall apart. 8. Now about the timing of NATO countries.

According to various estimates, China has been preparing for the Great War with Taiwan, starting in 2027 (when it finishes the re -equipment of its army, it will not be ready before). Russia can prepare for the attack at the same dates, but . . . The next year will be better than a window. From November 2024 to the end of January 2025, after the US presidential election and before the new president, Darlik believes that the United States will not be able to significantly affect NATO activities.

And without the US, the collective security system will fall apart in a matter of days. So, from May 2024 to January, there will be 8 months of active training in Russia. North Korea and China will take part. 9. Ukraine will only reach its election cycle (late 2024), and a series of protests and social conflicts will be held. And it will not greatly affect the future events in Europe. The only one who prepares for the above is Poland.