Seven key conclusions after mobilization order. In what situation was Putin

Natalia Bugayova is a freelance researcher at the Institute of War Study (ISW) Natalia Bugayova: Putin tries to reconcile the irreconcilable realities (photo: Reuters) It is impossible to say that Putin is now very vulnerable, but he is most vulnerable than ever 1. Putin's order on mobilization- It is a recognition that Russia cannot achieve its goal in Ukraine. 2. Putin began a full -scale invasion of Ukraine in February by insufficient force. In pursuit of limited benefits, she has exhausted.

This is a mistake in planning a military campaign that Russia has not yet recovered. The efforts to replenish Russian troops have failed without mobilization. Therefore, the call for partial mobilization is Putin's attempt to reduce the gap between his unchanged intention - to control the whole of Ukraine - and the ability of Russia, which is rapidly deteriorating, to do so. Video Day 4.

Mobilization is unlikely to reduce the gap between Putin's intentions and capabilities in the short term - if it is possible at all. Russia is likely to face a number of problems with the recruitment and integration of its forces, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Many Russians in words support the war, but do not want to fight it. Russia will also face restrictions on the productivity and dislocation of these forces - both require officers.

It is a resource that is increasingly declining and a weak place in the Russian army. The equipment of these forces will be another challenge, and the shortcomings of Russia's defense industrial base will only exacerbate this problem. Therefore, it is important that the event retains and expand its control over electronics exports. 5. We should also avoid too neglecting mobilization in the Russian Federation.

We must keep a close eye on how Russia will integrate these forces, how it will train them and what will be the result on the battlefield. We will hardly see it for the New Year. 6. Putin's value proposal for many years has been a promise of "Greater Russia". This value proposal is now in doubt, partly due to Russia's failures in Ukraine. It cannot be said that Putin is very vulnerable now, but now the most vulnerable than ever.

Putin tries to reconcile the irreconcilable realities: fulfilling this promise of "Great Russia", his inability to fulfill it, as well as the unwillingness of the peoples of Russia to fight in this war. 7. Although we cannot exclude the use of Putin tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there are two critical points that are worth noting. First, Ukraine assumes this risk from the day it decided to reflect a full-scale invasion of Russia.