"Otvetchki", "Calendaries" and other meanings: how and why the Russian Federation strikes in Ukraine

And in order to anticipate the enemy's actions, it is necessary to study the mechanisms of decision making. In this regard, military expert Oleksandr Surkov offers his classification of missile strikes of Russia on the Ukrainian rear. All good afternoon! Today, let's talk about missiles again, that I consider the most important component that we need to study from the enemy - decision -making mechanisms.

Because after it becomes clear, where and what flew, a crucial question - why? Who decided it? On the basis of what factors? What is presented below is not the result of the work of the relevant analytical services, but purely my personal opinion, which is formed through the study of open statistics. In general, if you reject the nuances, anomalies and quite incomprehensible cases - rocket strokes on our deep rear can be divided into three types.

This is a coordinated release of several dozen missiles from the sea, air and land by different types of carriers. The operation is very difficult to plan and cannot be performed day by day. Therefore, such blooms are prepared approximately a week, conveyorly on the readiness of carriers and the availability of missiles.

The goals for them are determined by the current intelligence, taking into account the operational and political requirements, and such raids are carried out simultaneously throughout the territory of Ukraine. For example, the first strikes from 24. 02. 22 were directed at our air defense, headquarters and PPDs. Since the beginning of March, they began to work systematically on oil depots. Summer 2022 - military production. Further from October 2022 - on the TPP and transformer substations.

Of course, there is no such thing that "today we only beat the TPP" - intelligence provides fresh data that goes to the programming of the routes, there are some political strokes of the Kremlin and more. They are caused when their intelligence is goals that the enemy characterizes as urgent and important. First of all, the experience is meetings of the highest team staff, as well as planes and critical techniques from partners.

Spotting strikes with one type of tool - more often "sparks" and "daggers", because they are fast, but there were cases (like a blow to the house of officers in Vinnitsa), when a point blow was hit by winged rockets. These blows are primarily for information purposes and are designed for Russian internal audience. It is important not to impress any particular object, but to provide a picture for the info.

Therefore, political blows are more likely to be directed to large cities, where social networks will provide maximum lighting and disclosure that can be used as fuel for their own propaganda. The most striking example of "Otvetchka" - a massive coating in early October 2022 after our blow on the screenshot bridge, which ran with Putin's birthday. It was then that a record number of missiles was released at the same time, and they had the entire strategic stock that was accumulated.

Outvettes go, as a rule, after successful blows of our means on objects in Russia or other resonant "exterior". "Calendar" - clear. The Russians with their infantile magical thinking are very fond of building anything to specific political dates-the birthday of the leader, February 23, May 9, etc. Or to our important dates - such as Independence Day. Somewhere. There are still experimental blows, but this is another story.