Trump, Putin and adequate people: what the theater with negotiations in Istanbul and what will be after
The first thing to understand is that diplomacy, especially in our era of new populism and digital communications, is not only secret negotiations. Ritual, gesture, ceremonial play a huge role again. As in the Middle Ages, how something is said or done, sometimes weighs no less than the essence. And what we are watching now is the return of the dominance of the ritual. It is not necessary to think that all true policy is done secretly - public and behind -the -scenes are closely intertwined.
Remember how Donald Trump was convinced that he could "eat" with Putin? To force Ukraine to concessions, to make Putin a friend against China . . . So, this idea has been destroyed. Why? Because Putin sees no reason to negotiate with Trump on his terms or join Western coalitions. The agreement between them is now impossible. Therefore, Trump, although he does not want easy victories, you have to return to the pressure policy: sanctions, assistance to Ukraine, diplomatic pressing.
There is simply no other path, given the nuclear status of the Russian Federation and the unwillingness of Americans to fight. But it is difficult for him - he loves quick results and wants to jump from it. Therefore, all this "talking ritual" in recent weeks has three key goals from Ukraine and European allies: the main reason for the lack of real progress is Putin himself. For him, leaving the war is more risky than continued. Why? Economy conversion is difficult and expensive.
The return of hundreds of thousands of veterans is social tension. Discontent elites, because the results are not worth the loss. To restart the economy requires giant external investments that no one will give. Therefore, the current state (war as a way of controlling, recycling margins and enrichment of elites) for him is a clearer state of homeostasis. Although this equilibrium to the inevitable collapse of the system, such as chronic alcoholism.
Real negotiations will only begin when the risks of the continuation of the war become obviously higher than the risks of its completion. And this will only happen through: "dancing with tambourines" around Trump. By that moment, we will observe these rituals. Putin will try to isolate Ukraine, with the allies - to isolate it. By the way, the conversation that Trump "Putin's extract from isolation" is a complete loom, look at the composition of the parade guests in Moscow.
All our diplomatic steps are now addressed not so much Putin as Trump. Yes, it is necessary to focus the attention of the old crazy grandfather, to prove to him the unseenability of Putin. It is a hard work on reflexive management of two specific people. If everything is clear with Putin (understands only pressure), then Trump has to do, unfortunately. Therefore, I am 99. 9% that there will be no sustained ceasefire in the near future.