The choice of Pokrovsk as the main goal will affect the possibilities of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine for any scenario-ISW
The nature of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation testifies to the general Russian strategy of victory of war in Ukraine: it is based on endless grueling tactical advancements. About it writes "Institute of War Study" in the summary of August 27. Russia's choice of Pokrovsky direction as a priority will probably affect the overall combat capabilities of Russian troops in Ukraine, regardless of the further scenario of developments in the area of Pokrovsk.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation try to balance the promotion in Pokrovsk and defense against the Ukrainian invasion in the Kursk region.
The Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Colonel-General Alexander Sirsky, declared at a press conference on August 27, that one of the main goals of Ukraine in the Kursk region was the distraction of the Russian forces from the critical sections of the front, and that Russia envisaged it and on the contrary increased the presence in the Pokrovsky direction.
Syrsky also noted that the Russian Federation has relocated more than 30,000 servicemen from other unknown sectors of the front line in Ukraine to Kursk region. The number of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will increase. According to analysts, Russia unfolds the reserve units and units from the non -critical sectors of the front, which is probably most of the 30,000 servicemen transferred to the Kursk region, which was spoken by Sirsky.
His statements are suggested that the Russian military command still does not want to relocate troops near Pokrovsk, and will continue to priority to ensure tactical successes and initiatives in Donetsk region.
The priority in the capture of territories in the Pokrovsk region is consistent with the Russian President Vladimir Putin theory of Victory in Ukraine, which assumes that the Russian forces are maintaining initiative and are running a constant exhaustion war to last longer than Ukraine and its allies. Russian offensive efforts around Pokrovsk will eventually reach the climax, although the terms are still unclear.
The ISW is not ready to predict the completion of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, especially as the Russian forces are increasing the pace of promotion in the area, and the Ukrainian forces retreat to prepared defense positions west from Grodivka, which are more convenient to protect.
But the redeployment of 30,000 Russian troops to the Kursk region can eventually worsen Russian opportunities at the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action in general after the end of the offensive on Pokrovsk. According to ISW estimates, Ukraine's operations in the Kursk region have already had an operational and strategic impact on the Russian forces throughout the theater of hostilities and have questioned Putin's victory theory.
Ukraine has taken the initiative in the new area and at the same time weakened Russia's opportunities to maintain a long -term initiative in certain areas of the front. The Russian command clearly gives priority to Pokrovsk, but such a calculation is likely to change depending on when the offensive in the Pokrovsk area is completed. The command will have to be fully considered for other purposes and reflecting the offensive in the Kursk region.
It is noteworthy that Russian troops have advanced less than 10 km east of Bakhmut after the Pyrriv capture of the city in May 2023, and now the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which are depleted in the Pokrovsky direction, may face the same after the offensive. The ISW still thinks that it is too early to draw the final conclusions about the long -term consequences of the Kursk operation.