Training on the border with Ukraine: Does Russia prepare for new aggression through Belarus
"And probably the greatest risk will happen in September, from September 12 to September 16, when the active phase of these exercises will continue," the SSSU speaker said. However, Demchenko added that as of now, there are no non -standard situations on the border with Belarus.
In an interview with BBC, the head of the security programs of the Globalism Center "XXI" in an interview with BBC Ukraine, Ukraine states that Russia is constantly conducting large -scale training at a four -year cycle: "Warning", "East", "Center" and "Caucasus", which reflect the preparation for possible fighting in different theaters. Some of them, such as the Caucasus-2008 and Western 2021, went into a real war.
NATO officers estimate that future Wacks 2025 training can be prepared for provocations against the Alliance's Eastern Flang, in particular, to check NATO's readiness to fulfill obligations under Article 5 of Article on Collective Defense. Lakichuk notes that during such exercises, the troops unfold and are ready for action. In 2022, after such maneuvers, Russia began a full -scale invasion of Ukraine, which indicates the possibility of transition from training to combat operations.
However, not every training is completed by war. Lakichuk emphasizes that Russia analyzes the operational situation by evaluating a likely enemy. "As part of the exercises, the strengths unfold and are ready. If there is a team - they begin to act. So it was in 2022 - they worked the invasion and then the real use of forces took place. Therefore, training is a threat of transition to a military operation.
But that does not mean that every training is ending," According to military expert Dmitry Snegirev, there is no reason to claim that Belarus is preparing to become a bridgehead for a new aggression by the Russian Federation. In particular, according to the State Border Service of Ukraine and the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the formation of a contingent for invasion is not recorded in the territory of Belarus.
There are no signs that could indicate the preparation for offensive actions, such as the accumulation of heavy armored vehicles, the deployment of field camps or the movement of a large number of personnel. These factors are key preparation indicators for military operations and are not currently observed. The situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is under close control of Ukrainian special services.
The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence Kirill Budanov stressed that the head of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will probably not allow the Russian leadership to use the territory of his country as a transit point for invasion of Ukraine. This position of Lukashenko is due to both internal political and external factors that affect his decision. In particular, Belarus is influenced by international players who are interested in the stability of the region.
"International factors, including the positions of the United States and the People's Republic, play a key role in preventing the destabilization of the situation. Both countries have their own interests in the region that do not contribute to the escalation of conflict. The US is actively working to reduce Russia's influence in post -Soviet space, and in particular. And also the visit of the high-ranking Kelogi official to Belarus testify to Washington's serious attention to the Belarusian issue.
According to Snegirev, the People's Republic of China, for its part, views Belarus as a strategic bridgehead for economic and political expansion on the European continent. Beijing is interested in the stability of the Belarusian political system, as any shock can threaten Chinese investments and projections in the region. Thus, the combination of American and Chinese influence creates conditions under which the likelihood of artificial provocations from Russia is significantly reduced.
These two global players are restraining factors that limit Moscow to destabilize the situation in Belarus. At the same time, Snegirev warns that it is impossible to completely exclude the scenario of provocations. "One of the key elements of the Russian presence in Belarus is to stay in its territory from 4 to 5 thousand fighters of the private military company" Wagner ". This group is a serious force, taking into account its combat experience, motivation and potential readiness for action.
The presence of such units can be used by Russia to create a factor. monitoring, "the expert added. The head of the security programs of the Center of Globalism "XXI" believes that there are currently no obvious signals of preparation of the offensive from the north, but the potential threat remains. In particular, the involvement of the Belarusian army in the war is possible by Moscow's political decision, which will require control over the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Lakichuk emphasizes the importance of intelligence for timely identification of threats. "Ukraine needs to be wary of these exercises. And be prepared that during them will work out such actions that in one form or another can then begin on the Ukrainian northern border," - sums up the expert. We will remind that Belarus forms a team of special forces near the border with Ukraine before joint training with Russia.