Risk of escalation: The ISW was assessed

To spread: Russia has increased the rhetoric of threats to the United States due to the possible supply of Tomahawk winged missiles to Ukraine. Western analysts say that such statements are aimed at deterring Washington and delaying the provision of long -range weapons. American Analysts of the Institute of War (ISW) in the daily report indicate that the Kremlin is developing a campaign of influence, seeking to prevent the transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

On October 7, Vladimir Putin Prescribe Dmitry Peskov said that the supply of such missiles would be a "serious escalation", although, according to him, this "will not change the situation on the front line. " He also recalled that Tomahawk could carry a nuclear warhead. Peskov emphasized that Putin unambiguously expressed his position on Russia's response to similar steps.

So, on October 2, the Russian leader warned the United States that the supply of Tomahawk would allegedly lead to "involvement of US military personnel in Ukrainian blows. " And on October 5, Putin threatened the "destruction of a positive trend" in US-Russian relations. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, spoke rigid and hinted that if the "tomahawki" would fall into Ukraine, then they would "hit Paris, Berlin and Warsaw.

" Other officials of the Russian Federation comment on the supply of missiles in the same tone. Senator Vladimir Jabarov stated that Russia will be forced to strike a preventive blow to Ukraine and that "not only Ukraine will suffer". Analysts in this connection point out that a similar Kremlin reaction was observed when the United States discussed the supply of Ukraine tactical missile system systems, high-mobile HIMARS missile systems, F-16 fighters and Abrams tanks.

This delayed the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine for some time. However, in all previous cases, the use of long -range weapons and violation of the so -called "red lines" did not lead to escalation by the Russian Federation. "The Kremlin's latest threats against Tomahawk missiles are part of a campaign designed to force Russia's opponents to make political decisions that are actually beneficial to Moscow," the ISW summed up.

We will remind, on September 29, the specialist of the US President in Ukraine, General Kit Kelloggus reported that Donald Trump allowed the use of long -range weapons in Russia. However, he later said that the final decision to transfer Tomahawk missiles has not yet been made. On October 6, Trump stated that he practically made a decision to grant US winged missiles Tomahawk to Ukraine.