Hybrid war in the sky of Europe: how the Kremlin makes Ukraine's partners be nervous and why they allow it
Over the military base of Murmelon-Le-Gran, unknown drones were noticed in France in France. Local authorities reported that these are small devices, not military drones. The incident was stated on September 25, calling it "exceptional", but without signs of a foreign invasion. According to the L'Nion newspaper, investigations into several non -identified drones are ongoing. The local government increased vigilance after the incident.
The military base itself covers an area of more than 10,000 hectares. During September 2025, Russia increased provocations in Europe using military aircraft and drones, some of which have not been identified. On September 9 and 10, about 20 Russian UAVs violated Poland's airspace. Polish fighters F-16 and F-35 knocked down four drones of AIM-160 missiles. On September 19, three Russian Mig-31 flew into the airspace of Estonia. Italian F-35 was sent for interception.
The next day, two Russian aircraft were split over the German frigate who participated in NATO's exercises in the Baltic Sea. On September 22 and 23, Oslo and Copenhagen Airports were temporarily closed due to unknown drones. Police reported that UAVs were leading persons without criminal intent. The next day, unknown drones approached NATO's military base with fighters.
The Senior Analyst of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Anton Zemlyany believes that these drones can be part of Russia's hybrid tactics against NATO. Similar provocations, such as the violation of the airspace of Estonia with Russian aircraft MiG-31 or the appearance of drones in Poland, is the response of the Kremlin to Ukrainian long-range blows for Russian purposes.
Russia uses such actions to intimidate European countries, demonstrating its ability to create tension in the region. Earthly suggests that drones could run from the territory of France, possibly not far from the base, indicating the activity of Russian special services or their agents. "Obviously, the Russian intelligence services have found a new vector of development of their provocations, which can be harmful to political, economic and security for European countries.
These drones could be launched directly from the territory of France, probably in the immediate vicinity of the Murmelon-Le-Gran military base," says Focus. Candidate of Political Sciences Ruslan Klyuchnyk assumes that even if Russia stands on the launch of these drones, there will be no serious sanctions against it. Similar incidents have already taken place in Poland, Estonia, Romania, Norway and Denmark. None of these cases have led to a strict reaction.
Klutnik believes that Russia can deliberately test NATO "red lines", checking the reaction and trying to weaken the unity of the Alliance. Such actions can be aimed at discrediting the Alliance in the eyes of Europeans, causing fear of escalation of conflict. However, these provocations can have consequences for Ukraine. "Perhaps such provocations can lead to a decrease in Ukraine's support. It is logical: citizens of European countries will be frightened by a possible war.
They will demand that Ukraine's storage because of threats to their own countries. These sentiment will not be able to ignore political figures as they depend on voters. Political scientist. Anton Earth adds that France, EU or NATO's reaction is likely to be restrained. Previous incidents in Poland, Denmark or Norway have not resulted in severe sanctions against Russia.
The only possible answer may be to increase sanctions against the organizers of provocations, but European leaders often avoid escalation. The earth emphasizes that such actions will continue until Russia is decent. Without decisive NATO or EU provocation measures, they will probably become regular, increasing tension in Europe and weakening Ukraine's support. Recall that Russia has changed tactics: instead of night attacks - round -the -clock pressure drones.