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Why Putin Ukraine: What is Russia's plan for revolutionary destruction of world order

Putin's war in Ukraine is not a goal in itself, but only part of his plan to combat the West, says NATO analyst Stephen Kovington in the column for The Economist. In fact, the Russian dictator has launched a revolution on a global scale, and for that it is ready to make it suffer. When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022, many Western observers considered it a temporary regional crisis, which would eventually develop into a frozen conflict.

Two and a half years later, this point of view challenges a more significant reality. The purpose of the Russian leader is not just to break Ukraine, to stop its search for a place in the family of Western democracies, but much more is to destroy the system of security, which arose after the Second World War, to destroy America. In this sense, Putin ignites the revolution: it uses the revolutionary strategy and tactics against the Western system.

His war in Ukraine is inextricably linked to the strategic purpose of its revolution. In the early 1990s, Russian reformers concluded that the country can be competitive only by integrating into the world economy and departing from the confrontation with the West.

The last 20 years of Putin's reign have been characterized by two completely different models that have coincided at the same time: a gradual dismantling of democracy and freedoms within Russia - and the strengthening of the campaign to delegitimize the West, its democratic values ​​and institutions that support them.

In the middle of Russia, the result was an increase in repression against the Russian people, the strengthening of the power of security services, the increase in the well-being of business leaders related to the Kremlin and the increase in investments in the armed forces.

Outside of Russia, Putin has increasingly pressure on the world order headed by America; seeks to undermine the rules, principles and rules of Western institutions; organizes regional and global opposition to the event; He conducted hostilities in Georgia, Syria and leads in Ukraine. Mr Putin now states that the Western system is an existential threat to Russia's sovereignty and the values ​​it must be adhered to.

He speaks of two views on the future that contrasts: either the Western system will continue to exist, and Russia will be strategic defeat, or the Western system will be replaced and Russia will continue to exist. He is convinced that Russia has reached historical crossroads in its post -Soviet development, and that the dismantling of existing world order and the construction of a new is fundamental to Russia's aspirations for the status of a greater state.

Its revolutionary jerk is motivated by both the internal goals of preserving power and the external goals of its expansion. Its revolution appreciates Russia's superiority and its power over the West, more than coexistence, mutual security, avoidance of crises and stability in relations with the West. Its security vision requires Europe without NATO and without organizations that support the fundamental principles of freedom, democracy and the rule of law.

This vision also involves Russia's cooperation with other countries in order to curb American power in the Arctic, Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions. Its revolution is now forming how organized Russia, how society mobilizes, how the priorities of industry are set, how foreign policy is built, as a structured army and how communications are carried out. His legitimacy as a Russian leader - and his place in history - is now inextricably linked to this revolution.

He depicts himself the only leader who can conduct Russia through this intersection of history. Putin's pursuit of advantage and authorities is unlikely to be replaced with caution in the pursuit of stability. Neither his revolution nor his war are not close to the end. In Ukraine, it performs several strategic actions.

By activating military operations and attacking Ukraine's infrastructure, he hopes to weaken its defense, demoralize its armed forces and create a sense of inevitable victory of Russia in the general population. He also seeks to divide Ukraine politically. And he wants to undermine the desire of the West to continue to support Ukraine in the war.

A number of signs indicate that Putin will continue to adhere to a revolution and war -based approach, further closing the policy, economy and armed forces of the country into a structure that can only support the revolution and war. It is unlikely that it will stop the revolution, demobilize the armed forces, deconstruct the military economy, or again accept the Western system.

It is equally unlikely that it will seek political, economic agreements, conflict resolution agreements, or weapons control with Western countries. This revolution and war will lie to Russian society with a huge burden - the price that Mr Putin, apparently, is ready to pay. Mr Putin has chosen a decisive way to promote Russian power. It leads Russia to a new phase of strategic confrontation with the West on Regional and Global Order, headed by America.

According to his logic, his reality is not a temporary mechanism of crisis management. Therefore, the event should continue to support Ukraine's right to self -defense and strengthen the collective security and defense of the Euro -Atlantic region and the whole world - within the strategic model of counteracting Russia, its pressure on the global security system.

In the absence of these steps, Putin will be able to compare the level of aggression against the Western system with the level of his revolutionary ambitions. At the end of 2022, Putin predicted that "it is likely to be the most dangerous, most prominent and at the same time the most important decade since the end of World War II" - a state of affairs, which, he said, "threatens global conflicts.