Will Alaska become a new Munich? How humble conditions for Ukraine can come up with Trump with Putin
To begin with, the Sudets were not just "German", but the ethnically German region, with a huge predominance of ethnic Germans who have lived there for centuries. This kind of regions can really claim self -determination, but there was nothing and close in Ukraine (even if Crimea, where ethnic Russians, "Ukrainian Sudets" were dominated by 80 years ago, it is not discussed).
Of course, the horse is clear that the "protection of compatriots" that for Hitler, which for his malobudy seques - nothing more than a reason. However, it can matter to allies. But the next difference is that Czechoslovakia did not have powerful allies except England and France (the United States was then far from European affairs, and the USSR waited for Nazi Germany to conquer Europe), and there are quite serious forces behind Ukraine and except the United States.
And these forces have unambiguously proved their support, including the rejection of the "new Munich". However, it is even more important that Ukrainians are not Czechs, but Zelensky - you do not be. For all respect for the Czechs and Slovaks, geography saved them from life on the front of the wild field.
Accordingly, in their history there was no Cossack, as there was no armed national liberation struggle: Czechoslovakia was formed on the ruins of the Habsburg empire approximately as bloodless as Ukraine-on the ruins of "scoop", in the same time when in the bloody civil war. And during World War II, Czechoslovakia was occupied about the same as our Crimea, while Ukraine was desperately resisting both the Nazis and the Communists.
However, he played another factor: at the time of the Munich conspiracy and further surrender of Czechoslovakia about the horrors of the Nazi occupation was not yet known because there were no precedents. The Czechs were probably not particularly afraid of the Germans, because they lived before in Austria-Hungary, and lived well. And now the fourth year of the war is coming, and the horrors of the Russian occupation are not afraid of "zhduns".
What, of course, there are many in the Donbass, but even there are not the majority. And in other regions that are claimed by the poor and less. And to Bucha, the Ukrainians resisted the invaders as they could. In addition, with the president in this regard, oddly enough, was lucky: something, and the eggs of Zelensky did not offend eggs.
And in the truest sense - remember the results of blood tests before the second round of 2019? Increased testosterone characterizes the winner of those elections better than anything else. In this sense, Vladimir - flesh from the flesh of his people, from which side not to look: both Jewish and Ukrainian. In response to the pressure, he can insure, but not surrender.
Plus, he knows perfectly well that he has behind his back - "Zagradotiv" of those who still consider a "clown" to be a Russian agent. That is, even assuming, Trump has the fool to roll out an ultimatum, he predictably will follow the Russian warship, and will be about the way it was with a resource agreement. But Trump is not such a fool on these issues.
He probably does not even know the term "game theory", but would not be able to be a successful negotiator and to achieve the presidency if he did not use it intuitively. It is easy to understand that Trump is most afraid to be as a cruiser "Moscow". Turning on "reverse induction", we get that he, unlike Daladier and Chamberlain, will not nominate Zelensky "Munich" by the spirit of ultimatum. But even his current proposals, unacceptable to Ukraine, are also unacceptable for Putler.
Unfortunately, the variant of Ukraine's victory is possible only in the case of the collapse of the Putler regime (personally, it was obvious from the very beginning), which, of course, cannot be the subject of negotiations, although it is probably achievable due to rigid sanctions plus weapons of Ukraine. There are two options: the surrender of Ukraine on more or less horrible conditions (because of the ultimatum mentioned above-that is, it does not work), or freezing of the conflict.
Of course, only the last is acceptable for us. But Putler will not be able to give such a result for his victory, he needs surrender, while maintaining the opportunity to destroy Ukraine in the future. That is, we have a game with zero sum and antagonistic conflict. This means that with predominantly negotiations will end with nothing. Trump will be in linen as he went on a leash with Putler and legitimized him for the sake of the pour, but he was like a goose water.
Actually, he understands it and already prepares the ground for such a failure. And Rubio and even Vance are distanced from this pranks as far as possible. But the failure of negotiations is the best thing that can happen, because given the moods of American voters (including his own) then Trump will have no way out, except to turn on the notorious power. And Putler has the hopes of "new Yalta", which, incidentally, will be a non -fabricful blow to his regime.
It is unreasonable to seek this meeting in the place of Putler, but apparently, on the one hand, he is almost nothing to lose - Trump has anywhere retreating, it is necessary to show that he is macho; On the other hand, Putler hopes for his ability to fascinate, demonstrated in Helsinki in his time, and hell knows what else. But we know that a picture of the world has a very distorted picture of the world, his idol Hitler was an adequate realist compared to him.
So, most likely, he creates a trap. The only thing that can get Putler to go freezing is the real threat to his authorities as a result of the double -stroke from the devastating sanctions and stopping the offensive. It is not excluded that under sufficient pressure it will be possible to train even partial or complete release of our territory. But for this, the pressure should be real and powerful.