Oil from Russia under the guise of Indian: Ukraine will rise in expensive fuel because of import restrictions
The starting point was the date of September 15. Thus, the Security Service of Ukraine appealed to the Energy Customs with a warning to limit the import of Indian petroleum products. The reason is the suspicion that much of the fuel is made of Russian oil. All parties from India must undergo laboratory analysis to control. However, experts doubt the real possibility of checking the origin of the already processed product.
"It is unclear how, in addition to the documents, it can be established that fuel is made from Russian oil. There is no opportunity in ports to carry out such analysis,"-explains Gennady Ryabtsev, energy expert and professor of the Kyiv-Mohyla School of Management. In this case, the documents are easy to fake, for example, by forming a legal entity in another country and hiding the true origin of raw materials.
Possible sanctions are also discussed with respect to the Romanian port of Constanta, through which it comes to Ukraine to a quarter of petroleum products. According to the "A-95 Consulting Group", more than 75%of the fuel passing through Constantz has Turkish (34%) and Indian (43%) of origin. At the same time, the import of Indian fuel to Ukraine in eight months of 2025 increased from 73 thousand tons to 453 thousand, the peak came in July-August.
"Since October, sanctions will be concerned not only by Indian producers but also by Constanta,"-confirms the head of the "A-95 consulting company" Sergey Kuyun. According to him, the Romanian side is already consulting with traders to give up "toxic deliveries" and save Ukraine as a key client. Particular attention is paid to the largest Indian Reliance refinery, which processes about 60 million tons of oil per year is several times more than that of the average European plant.
The scale and use of cheap Russian oil make Indian suppliers particularly competitive. However, the market situation is now more stable than in 2022. Prior to a full -scale invasion, Ukraine depended on supplies from Russia and Belarus by 70% relative to gasoline and 40% relative to diesel. In March-June 2022, the blockade of these routes caused a crisis that was only four months old.
Today, the sources of deliveries are much more, and traders are quickly reconfigured to new routes - in particular, from Greece and the US. Excise duty will be added to the prices. From January 1, as part of Ukraine's European integration obligations, excise duties will increase: gasoline - from 271. 7 to 300 euros per thousand liters, diesel - from 215. 7 to 253. 8 euros. According to Sergei Kuyun, this will add to the price of gasoline about 1. 5 hryvnia per liter, to the diesel - 2 hryvnia.
But the final price will still depend on the price policy of the gas station. The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a more moderate increase: in 2026, fuel prices will increase by 8%, in 2027-by 6. 9%. But in the coming months they will show whether October will be a turning point: everything will depend on the decisions of the SBU and customs, the reactions of traders and - it is important - the commercial interests of the gas stations themselves.