Putin's threats and Baltic countries are a good sign for Ukraine

The placement of nuclear weapons and Wagnets in Belarus is much about Putin, Lukashenko and Prigogine use each other for common and their own purposes. So far, these goals are not contrary to each other, but they are clearly not coinciding. In the end, Putin does not require neither Lukashenko nor the living commander of PVC Wagner Prigogin. But the death of any of them will weaken Putin himself before. Lukashenko's overthrow will lead to the loss of Belarus.

The destruction of Prigogine will lead to the loss of "African conquests" by Putin-Prishozhin and will leave him face to face with the Russian army, which has lost the war in Ukraine and which he does not trust and is already afraid. Each of this three has its own motives for cooperation and ways of using a partner. But in any case, all three-Putin, Prigogine, Lukashenko-are well aware that only one of them can remain in the future.

The combination of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, thrown by Putin to Belarus with the presence of PEC Prigogine, sharply exacerbates the military-political situation not only in the southeast of Ukraine but also in Central Europe. The very fact of bringing Prigogine to the international level and moving it from the Ukrainian front to the Belarusian direction indicates that Putin is limited in his resources and plans for the continuation of the war.

Moreover, the use of illegitimate, irregular, paramilitarian proxy, which have extensive experience of war and obey Putin exclusively, makes Putin's international status extremely ambiguous. Now none of the international politicians know who he is dealing with - with the virtuous master of the private army or the legitimate President of Russia. Putin tries to break the connection between his enormous power and responsibility for his actions.

But what can happen in Russia will not happen in the international arena. Putin seems that by expanding the area of ​​military-political tension, he widens the freedom of maneuver of his actions. And the worse the position of the Russian army in Ukraine, the more active Putin will expand the zone of aggressive activity to other regions of the world and the sphere of life (sea, space, food, elections in other countries, etc. ).