The Armed Forces counter -offensive has caused panic in the Russian Federation: the Kremlin has to hold a "referendum" - ISW

Moscow probably plans to threaten NATO in the event of the offensive of Kiev in the occupied territories against their "accession" to Russia, analysts say. The appeal of the DNR and LNR Public Chambers with the request to hold a "referendum" on the accession of the occupied parts of the Donbass to the Russian Federation testifies to panic among the Kremlin's settings in the region.

Moscow's plan may be that the aggressor state, including incomplete Donetsk and Luhansk region, could be easier to threaten NATO with blows in response to Ukrainian counterattacks. This is stated in the report of the Institute of War Study (ISW) of September 20. Russian propagandist, director of RT channel Margarita Simonyan stated that the Crimean Scenario is unfolding in the Donbass, but this approach is inconsistent, experts say.

"The Russian forces do not control the entire Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Yes, the annexation of the stated territories of" DNR "and" LNR "will lead to annexation by Russia, which, by definition of the Kremlin, will be partially" occupied "by the legal Ukrainian authorities and Ukrainian forces that occur" , - the publication says.

According to analysts, the partial occupation of the Donbass will put the Kremlin in an inconvenient position, as it will have to demand that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not "occupy Russian territory", while Ukrainian troops will not be able to fulfill this requirement. At the same time, the Kremlin ends the ways to stop the Armed Forces in the Donbass, according to the report.

Also, according to the organization, the latest successes of the Ukrainian counter -offensive are further reduced by the moral spirit of the Russian units, which were considered elite before the start of a full -scale invasion of February 24. Analysts pointed to the media reports that the Russian military from the 1st Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division fled from their positions in Izium.

"Among the signed documents (dated August 30, on the eve of the counter -offensive of Ukraine in Kharkiv region on September 7) there are written appeals to the commanders of the w/h 31135 to release the authors of letters in connection with constant" physical and moral fatigue ", - the report reads. On September 11, the media wrote that the Kremlin had paused the "referendums" in the occupied regions of Ukraine due to the successful offensive of the Armed Forces in Kharkiv region.