How the Russian Federation will respond to a breakthrough in the Kursk region: in ISW ​​named possible "revenge" options

Analysts emphasized that in general, Russian troops were unable to use their resources to quickly return the territories of the Kursk region, which Ukraine occupied. Significant territorial achievements of Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia will be a threat to the Kremlin, which positions itself as a stable regime that controls the situation with internal security in Russia and effectively manages the war in Ukraine.

Therefore, Moscow will try to return the Russian territory in the Kursk region, which was captured by Ukrainian troops and to stop Ukrainian activity deep into Russia. This is stated in the report of the American Institute of War Study (ISW) on August 8, 2024.

"A significant promotion of Ukraine deep into Russia would be a strategic blow to the long -term efforts of President of Russia Vladimir Putin, aimed at consolidating the inheritance of Russian stability, security and geopolitical revival," the report reads. According to experts, Putin believes that he should respond to the threat to the civilian population in order to assure the Russian public that the situation is under control and to avoid significant internal dissatisfaction.

According to analysts, the Russian military command has a number of probable ways of action that it can apply in response to the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region: "The Russian military command can decide that the preservation of the current rates of the offensive at certain sections of the front is more priority than continuing offensive operations in other areas, and can decide to maintain existing operational reserves for the priority areas of the front, and instead relocate advanced units from less priority plots to the Kursk region, " - said in ISW.

"But Russian troops were generally unable to use shock forces and means of greater range to create the conditions for a ground maneuver necessary for the rapid return of the territory in the Kursk region," the American Institute of War Study emphasized.

According to analysts, the lack of a coordinated response of Russia to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region and the speed of promotion of Ukrainian troops indicates that Ukrainian troops were able to achieve prompt surprise along the border with Russia. Experts also came to the conclusion that Russian troops were unable to learn the lessons learned during the unsuccessful military maneuvers over the last one and a half years.