Billions for reconstruction. How to Ukraine to restore Russia destroyed and where to take the money for it
Russian aggression has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians, and also caused considerable losses of ecology and the country's material fund. Thus, according to the Kiev School of Economics, since the beginning of a full -scale invasion of September 1, 2023, the total amount of direct documented losses of Ukraine's infrastructure reached $ 151. 2 billion (at the cost of replacement). How to compare with June 2023, the figure has increased by more than $ 700 million.
As the war continues, losses are increasing. The total amount of direct losses caused by military aggression of the Russian Federation is the largest share of the housing stock - $ 55. 9 billion. In total, 167. 2 thousand objects were destroyed or damaged. In the second place in the amount of losses - infrastructure (losses are estimated at $ 36. 6 billion).
Since the beginning of the fighting in Ukraine, 18 airports and civilian airports have been damaged, at least 344 bridges and bridges, more than 25 thousand kilometers of public and local roads and communal roads. Due to the fighting and attacks of Russians, the number of schools, kindergartens and hospitals in Ukraine is reduced. Yes, nearly 3. 5 thousand educational (losses - $ 10. 1 billion) and 1223 medical institutions ($ 2. 9 billion) were destroyed or damaged.
According to the World Bank estimates, our reconstruction requires approximately $ 411 billion. Ukraine counts on the complete confiscation of Russian assets abroad to cover all the damage caused. And while partner countries are looking for a legal mechanism for their transfer, Ukraine is trying to carry out rapid recovery-current repairs of networks, housing to save lives in villages and cities where possible. International resources play an important role in the rapid restoration of Ukraine.
Last May, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that partner countries take patronage over the regions of Ukraine that were injured in the war. Among such countries, including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, England, France, Austria, Czech Republic, Turkey, Greece, Denmark. For example, the latter announced to help rebuild Nikolaev and Mykolaiv region. Copenhagen recently approved a region of assistance to the region for $ 42.
9 million, which includes the purchase and installation of equipment for heat, water supply, district heating, maintaining the reconstruction of critical social infrastructure and civilian institutions in the region. However, the financing of Ukraine's reconstruction is now not in the priority of international partners of Ukraine.
"Today, the volumes accumulated from international partners for reconstruction, how to compare with budget assistance, are much smaller," explain the focus at the Center for Public Finance Analysis and Public Administration KSE. , $ 2 billion, of which $ 29. 6 billion has already been received in Ukraine. The most of this money is mobilized and aimed at maintaining Ukraine's financial capacity. And only $ 1.
1 billion is funds that were accumulated to Created by the World Bank of the Target Fund for Support, Restoration, Reconstruction and Reform of Ukraine. Norway, the Netherlands, Canada, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, the Republic of Korea, Iceland, Lithuania, Belgium, Latvia. " The lion's share of international assistance goes to maintain Ukraine's financial stability. Familiar less - people from all over the world can join the reconstruction of Ukraine through the United24 Fandrazy Platform.
For example, nearly UAH 640 million from these donors has already been transferred to the reconstruction of Kyiv region. Meanwhile, Ukraine itself is trying to find the resource for reconstruction. Thus, in October last year, the Fund for the Elimination of the Consequences of Armed Aggression was established. The Fund is partially filled for funds withdrawn as a result of confiscation of assets of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, as well as from the NBU's profit.
The fund is paid compensations for repairing or restoring destroyed housing within the Equinal Program. Small repairs are also made by community resources. "Local self -government bodies are renovated by their programs. Logic is this: if you can repair the housing for the heating season, it is better than a person will be IDPs. As for reconstruction, they are serious funds.
Therefore, there is a point at the local level where the destruction is not destroyed So many, where budgets were given the opportunity, the funds were allocated, " - said political scientist and financier Alexei Buryachenko in a comment to the focus. But local level recovery powers are limited. "On their own, local budgets can only finance their own (municipal) institutions and property in their ownership, as well as to adopt programs for maintaining the restoration of housing of residents.
Waterways, networks, demining - all this goes beyond the expenditure powers of the level of territorial communities," - said in kse. How to compare with the budget -2023, the main estimate of the country next year is characterized by a significant reduction in expenditures on infrastrructure and construction.
Yes, the Fund for the Elimination of the Consequences of Armed Aggression will no longer be able to count on the NBU's profit - it will only be filled with confiscated and sold Russian property. And all the revenues of the road fund will be directed to the general fund of the state budget for the needs of defense. According to KSE, in general, infrastructure expenditures in the budget -2024 are provided for a total amount of UAH 8. 5 billion.
In addition, the budget project for 2024 is planned to allocate UAH 10. 8 billion for recovery programs, the key of which is: "It is important that all these programs will be funded by international partners, which, in turn, allows to release part of the funds for Defense and social sectors. At the same time, the construction of road infrastructure in 2024 is not provided. The main reason is the lack of "free" funds to finance this kind of projects, "KSE analysts said.
The budget-2024 does not provide funds for the construction of roads at the same time to finance repairs in 2024, too, will also decrease due to the withdrawal of military PIT. "Within the limits of their local opportunities, the ongoing repair may be done. And it will depend on how much the community can afford it. There will be no serious projects of large construction at the state level except strategic bridges," Buryachenko commented.
In general, the country is counting on the more active participation of private foreign capital in post -war reconstruction. "Private investments should become the basis of future restoration.
However, while the war is ongoing, the state and MFIs should be a catalyst for private investments, taking on part of the risk: through joint -stock funding from MFIs, insurance of military risks, the creation of joint ventures with state -owned military enterprises, implementation Pilot projects with an emphasis on deepening processing in industry, " - the chairman of the Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy of the Verkhovna Rada Danilo Getmantsev is convinced.
In addition, the government is expected to receive frozen assets of the Russian Federation in the world, and before that, percentages of them, which since the beginning of 2023 have been accumulated about 3 billion euros. The EU has already approved a plan for directing the profits received from them to help Ukraine. Leaders are currently looking for ways to transfer them in accordance with the current contractual obligations, as well as EU and international law.
Not only finances but also people are needed to rebuild the country. The latter is now a concern, since, according to Easybusiness research, up to 2. 7 million forced migrants are leaning to stay abroad.
"The return of these migrants is important in terms of ensuring rapid and sustainable economic growth: in order to grow with a rate In the return, Ukraine can lose up to $ 113 billion in GDP in 10 years (at 2021 prices), which may also mean not to receive approximately $ 45 billion tax revenues, ”the study said. According to the authors, Ukraine will not be superfluous to take into account the experience of Israel in the policy of returning forced migrants.
In particular, the government of this country provides considerable assistance with the integration of Jews-immigrants: free ticket to the country, financial support, subsidies for renting housing, education, health insurance, tax loans and discounts, lower mortgage rates, etc. But the return of our compatriots may eventually not close the need for resources to recover.
"Even if we can return some of those migrants who have left the country, we may not have enough," says the head of the recruitment and Executive Search portal GrC. ua Natalia Slinko. "We will laugh over 4. 5 million labor. We have a situation that a large number of vacancies are huge unemployment - it is structural: those professions that are missing are required. Not sure that the return of citizens aligns this process. We will need a lot We may not be enough for us. " Ukraine may lack 4.
5 million labor for recovery, experts warn in its opinion, in the country it is worth organizing programs for involvement of citizens of other countries for rebuilding. However, something has already been done in this direction. The leading partner of the Evrika Law Andriy Shabelnikov drew attention to the draft law No. 6516 signed by the President in July 2023 "on improving the conditions and procedure of immigration to Ukraine of foreigners and stateless persons".
In particular, the document: "The state is trying today to assist the involvement of migrants from other countries to Ukraine, but it is necessary to understand that the fighting is ongoing, foreigners will not come to our country. It is necessary to create favorable conditions for life in Ukraine, " - said the focus of Shabelnikov.
In his opinion, it is necessary to direct efforts to attract migrants from countries that face environmental problems or social difficulties, as well as to introduce a system of migration points (Points-Based System). "You need to develop an initiative based on certain age criteria and migrant skills, which will facilitate the easier to obtain residence permits without restrictions and prolonged bureaucratic procedures.
That is, a person scores an appropriate number of points and automatically receives a residence permit in Ukraine. To be online, the decisions should be made automatically by an algorithm, not personally by a person (to reduce the risk of corruption), "the expert said. Ukraine to attract workers from other countries should introduce a system of migration points a different way out to overcome the labor deficit for the restoration of Ukraine can be mechanization and robotization of the economy.