The army of the Russian Federation will be difficult to keep the borders in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin doubles the bet on hidden mobilization: a map of hostilities and ISW assessment
Its analysts believe that the Russian army will most likely be difficult to keep their defensive borders in eastern Ukraine if the forces of the Armed Forces continue to move to the east. Publions of Russian propagandists reported that Ukrainian troops continue ground operations southwest of Izium, in the Liman area and on the eastern bank of the Oskil River-which, according to these reports, forces the invaders to leave some areas in the east of Ukraine and strengthen others.
Video of the Kremlin Day responds to the defeat in Kharkiv region, double the bet on hidden mobilization, not creating the conditions for general mobilization, experts ISW. In support of this conclusion, they give a statement to the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who called on all subjects of the Russian Federation to start "self -mobilization" and not wait for the Kremlin to declare martial law.
Kadyrov stated that each subject of the federation should "prove its willingness to help Russia" by gaining at least 1000 servicemen. Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan supported the idea of voluntary participation of the Russians in the war against Ukraine, and several loyal Kremlin of Russian governors have publicly expressed in support of Kadyrov's speech. Thus, Serhiy Aksyonov, appointed by Russia, has announced the formation of two "volunteer" battalions on the peninsula.
This indicates that a significant defeat in Ukraine prompted the Kremlin to declare an all -Russian recruitment campaign. Until now, Kremlin officials and the state media have not voiced such calls for nationwide recruitment, and instead entrusted to local officials and media to form forces on their own initiative.
Now the Russian military bloggers have welcomed the idea of Kadyrov against the backdrop of criticism of the "inefficient" conscription campaign of the Ministry of Defense of Russia. "This recruitment reform [into the army] will probably provide more support for the Kremlin among nationalist figures who are increasingly criticizing the Russian Defense Ministry, even if the campaign does not lead to the creation of a large number of capable troops," the ISW concludes.
At the same time, the Kremlin probably abandoned its efforts from such mobilization by individual subjects of the Russian Federation (for example, Moscow) - especially after the republics of Buryatia, Kalmykia, Tuva and Yakutia broke out local public protests against actual recruitment on ethnicity, What the Insider told.
Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has almost certainly involved and exhausted most of its forces, which were previously stationed on the bases of the Russian Federation in the former Soviet republics. This factor probably weakened Russia's influence in these countries, ISW experts say.
The Russian army has already transferred to Ukraine about 1,500 of its servicemen from the 201th Military Base of the Russian Federation in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) and plans to send another 600 people from military objects of the Russian Federation in the cities of Dushanbe and Bokhtar (south of Tajikistan), found the investigation of Radio Free euro. Radio Liberty, published on September 14.
It is also reported that since the end of 2021, Russia has probably relocated about 300 Tuvinsk servicemen from the Russian air base in Kyrgyzstan to participate in the war against Ukraine. In this context, ISW draws attention to recent border fights (shootouts) between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as a more noticeable conflict of Azerbaijan and Armenia, from where the Russian troops brought 800 of their servicemen at the beginning of the war to compensate for the loss in Ukraine.