Russia is preparing for rebellion in 2025: experts predict possible scenarios

Protests have been talked about sooner or later against the background of a continuing war, sanctions and mobilization in the Russian Federation, more than once. Focus found out whether there were preconditions for large -scale rallies in Russia in 2025. After a visit to Kiev and Moscow in July 2024, the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban wrote a letter to the Chairman of the European Council of Charles Michel and the heads of EU Member States in July 2024.

According to the media, the document is not intended for the general public. However, some journalists got acquainted with its content and received confirmation about the authenticity of the letter from several EU officials. The document allegedly presents Orban's observations about the Ukrainian and Russian vision of war. The Prime Minister of Hungary emphasized that both Moscow and Kiev are ready for peace talks, but with the participation of both parties.

That is why Ukraine will invite the Russian Federation to the next summit. The media also wrote that Orban did not teach the position of Kiev in detail, and was more concentrated on the Russian side. But since the letter is not publicly available, its content gives rise to a number of rumors. In particular, that it was possible to destabilize the Russian Federation in 2025. Officially, Kyiv did not confirm such conclusions.

However, the President's office has repeatedly said that the Russian Federation is an inevitable uncontrolled rebellion. What can, in particular, affect the course of war. Thus, in March 2024, the adviser to the head of OP Mikhail Podolyak said that there will be no revolution in the Russian Federation, and the state will take place an "unmanaged rebellion". ". . .

in Russia there will be no classical revolution of the value plan, where they will gradually produce theses, develop networks, agitators, etc. In Russia there will be a classic Russian rebellion. That is The background of a sharp weakening of state institutions, ”Podolyak noted. According to political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, there are no techniques that would make it possible to predict destabilization in another country for a year or even six months.

"On the example of Ukraine, I can say - we had the Maidans when sociology did not show an increase in the level of protest sentiment. In one case, the revolution was associated with the 2004 elections, in the other - provoked by false decisions There were no signs of the Maidans that the destabilization was stable. The expert believes that any rebellion needs a trigger. For Russia, it can be a serious defeat in the war. Or Putin's health problems.

But even in such cases, events in the Kremlin can always develop in several scenarios. For example, if something happens to Putin, in Moscow, either the struggle for power begins, and then a "merciless rebellion" is possible, or - there will quickly agree on the successor and nothing will change. "To predict that next year in the Russian Federation there will be destabilization due to mobilization, I see no reason. Many have been waiting for mobilization now, but it did not happen.

Will it be in 2025? Up to 30,000 people, many by contract, are not enough. Problems with the economy in the Russian Federation, according to the expert, can also be the impetus for large -scale rallies. Even in the 1990s, according to Fesenko, destabilization within the country was held for political reasons, not because of the socio-economic situation in the country. "Manifestations of dissatisfaction in individual regions were, of course, locally.

Can there be a problem because of the economic crisis? Even in six months it is difficult to predict such things. Political expert Igor Reityrovich, on the contrary, believes that in the long run destabilization in the Russian Federation is possible for economic reasons. "Changes in the economy can lead to destabilization. If, for example, social payments and regions that live on, can start rebeling in the 90s are abolished.

Against the backdrop of war in the country is gradually increasing the level of aggression, alcoholism. The opposite direction. With regard to general mobilization, according to the expert, it all depends on its scale. The money that the authorities pay for those who are taken into the army is enough to extinguish any rebellion.

But if there is a new wave of mobilization, during which the front will be taken to the front, and the financial support will automatically decrease, it can cause dissatisfaction with people. "Mothers and wives of soldiers may be released on the street. There will be local rallies, depending on the regions where most men were taken to the war. But it is unlikely One of the possible factors that affect the course of war, but it is not key.