Victory of Ukraine and defeat of
In the end, our defense forces will release the entire territory of Ukraine in the internationally recognized borders of 1991.
It will be a big military victory, but will it be the final victory of Ukraine? In order to understand that Ukraine is a victory of Ukraine, we need to turn to the classical definition of victory, which was given by one of the leading strategists of the XX century, Sir Bezil Liddel Hart: Victory is a peace that is better than the previous one, even from your point of view.
The restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine is peace, not better than the previous one, because it is peace as the previous one. Russia remains with its aggressive imperial elites (even instead of Vladimir Putin will be "Putin 2. 0"), with the army, the FSB and the military-industrial complex, with poisonous television and a huge population that is poisoned by this television and seeking revenge and revenge.
Russia will return for a maximum of five years, because it is this time that it is estimated that it is necessary to fully restore the military capacity of the empire. A few years later, the second Russian-Ukrainian war awaited us, as was a small break between the first and second Chechen wars: in the first Russia was defeated, but studied mistakes, accumulated resources, returned and revenge, destroying the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria.
Even if Russia is more severely defeated, it will return through generations - it looks like a worldwide worldwide. We do not want our children to fought in the Second Russo-Ukrainian War in 25 years. I will emphasize again: in the Second War, Russia will not repeat the mistakes of the first. Victory is a peace that is better for us than the previous one. Peace is the same as the previous one is not a victory. Peace, better than the previous one, is when Russia never threatens Ukraine again.
And this cannot be achieved only by military methods, and political ones are also needed. Irreversible changes should occur in Russia itself. We haven't won yet. Instead, Russia has already been defeated. After all, in any scenario, Russia has no peace, better than the previous one, even from its own point of view (an important nuance in the definition of Liddell Garta).
The sustainability of the Russian state is undermined, the personnel army is broken, the military capacity is significantly reduced, public finances are approaching collapse, many sectors of the economy are completely destroyed, the best human capital has emigrated, sanctions will be difficult to remove even during the generation, international isolation is a fact. Russia is still able to recover and rush into the second offensive.
But it is not able to secure the world, better than the previous one, even if there are some pieces of Ukrainian territory in its hands, which will be a burden, not a prize. (More about scenarios for Russia in this article. ) A key word for understanding Russia is an empire.
According to classical definitions, the empire is a multinational state that has the peoples of the first and second grades and is constantly seeking to expand and include new peoples and territories, considering it as its "historical mission". While Russia is an empire, Ukraine will not be safe. Moreover, the Russian Empire considers Ukraine "the pearl of its crown" and the cradle of its statehood.
The whole semantic resource owned by Moscow - early statehood, Christianity, writing, the idea of Slavs, European and at the same time Asian ties, the very idea of the empire and even the name - everything comes from Kiev, partially donated, partially stolen and appropriated. The victory of Ukraine is a deimperialization, decolonization of Russia.
Russia should cease existence as an empire, passing the path of decolonization and reconstruction of the post -imperial space established by the UN fundamental documents. Since the late 1980s, the Ukrainian slogan has been unchanged: "For ours and your freedom!". We have a good understanding of the peoples of the empire, because we were such for hundreds of years: Russified, devoid of cultural elites, humiliated, subjected to genocide, who are forcibly forcibly to the imperial invasive wars.
Obviously, it does not remove the issue of punishment of war criminals and reparations, but however, empathy and sympathy for national liberation movements should enter our minds, because they are our only permanent allies in the fight against the empire (instead, Russian "liberals" are our worst enemies because they are the same Empires as Putin and his deeds, and also create false illusions about the possibility of democracy in Russia; according to Vakhtanga Kebuladze, Putin is the enemy of our present, and Russian "liberals" are the enemies of our future).
National liberation movements are still quite weak, but grow rapidly, and most importantly-the active minority, not the passive majority, prevails. Do not look at the data of Russian censuses, it is an imperial lie (in 10 years the number of individual nationalities decreased by a third, as if there was a nuclear war or a terrible plague, but it is obvious that simply millions of people enrolled as "Russian"). So, we do not need a truce before the next war, we need a victory.
But there is one problem. Until there is a common picture of what the world looks after the war - the war cannot end. We have not yet taken place, drawing an analogy with World War II, neither Tehran-43, nor Yalta-45. The dialogue of Ukraine and Western allies on such a picture of the post -war world stimulates not only current assistance to Ukraine, but also the development of mechanisms for providing justice and sustainable peace.
It is important to emphasize that justice and sustainable peace are inseparable, although there are strengths in the West that propose to abandon justice for the sake of sustainable peace, threatening that otherwise they will have to give up sustained peace for justice.
This document, recently presented at the Munich Security Conference, is in fact not only an attempt to outline Ukraine's position, but also an invitation to a dialogue regarding the formation of a common picture of the post -war world.
The West is afraid of the collapse of Russia, and it is clear: the uncontrolled spread of nuclear weapons, the largest refugee crisis, the spread of Islamic radicalism, the excessive strengthening of China, which will take advantage of Russian resources, and the West is afraid that disintegration can spread. But the collapse of the Russian Empire is inevitable, so the only way to prevent the unacceptable risks it carries is this process.
(More about the strength and fragility of the Russian Empire and the inevitability of collapse in this article. ) It is time to talk about the postwar picture of the world - I will once again emphasize that the war will continue and cannot end until there is no post -war picture of the world, and every day of this war is paid 'Yu of the best people of Ukraine. The end of the war with our victory for one day will save a lot of lives.