95% voted for the war. Putin's Venezuelan friend can attack Guyana though tomorrow

The real war of Venezuela has not yet begun, although it is quite possible, according to the international expert, Ilia Kus. In his opinion, Nicholas Maduro may well afford it, despite the difficult situation of his country. Venezuela attacked Guyana? Not yet. We have been induced last week about the alleged attack of Venezuela on the neighboring Guyana for the purpose of occupying the controversial territory, which is claimed by Karakas from the XIX century.

But it seems to me the screams are premature. Yesterday, a consulting referendum took place in Venezuela, in which people, in fact, decided whether or not to support the country's claims for the disputed territory. Of course, 95% voted in favor. Of the 20 million, a little more than 10 voted. Since the referendum is consulting, its decisions do not legally oblige Maduro to start the war.

For the Venezuelans, the controversial territory of Esekibo in the neighboring Guyana is a "screwdriver" topic, both for the authorities and for the opposition, many are the only one. But there is a difference between real fighting and rhetoric.

In my opinion, what we see now - rhetoric, psychological pressure from Nicholas Maduro to mobilize an electorate around them, remind of the screens that are clear to everyone, and to inclined the United States to the events before the elections that Karakas promised in 2024 to restart the political system and remove sanctions (some of which have already been weakened). There were no fighting on the border of Venezuela and Guyana. Yet.

It all depends on Maduro's readiness to shake the situation more than in words, and on the level of tension that this situation will create in Guyan. The president of the last yesterday made and assured the citizens that the referendum in Venezuela would not lead to anything, and that it is not necessary to be afraid of a great war. From the point of view of military training, Venezuela can afford a small warrior.

The Gaiana army is weak and small, and the territory to which Venezuela claims is low -populated, although it is rich in resources (in fact, this is the subject of dispute, not just for the jungle as such). But politically and economically, Venezuela is in a very difficult situation, and the risks of such a conflict are greater than the predictable benefits. Therefore, it seems to me that there is no final decision to attack in Karakas.

Like there is no world conspiracy of "bad guys" against "good" and manual management of the world, which is often inclined to talk about such situations and conflicts. I repeat, the conflict for the territory of Essecibo has been ongoing since the nineteenth century and has inherited the region from the colonial empires, as is often the case in the countries of the so -called "global south". The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.