Freezing war: when will it be and what will happen to Ukraine then
I will start with the main: now according to the scripts. In the fall of 2024, I described the main scenario "Freezing". The start of the script - from the fall of 2024. 1) The US is profitable first and foremost. The states have already spent almost $ 200 billion in Ukraine's help for the United States. The loss and fall of Russia for these purposes are not included. But the states see the risk of rapprochement of Russia and China and the continuation of the war will only accelerate this track.
The main thing, the states do not see the prospects for "burning" further money for the war. And you can stop "burning" only freezing. 2) favorable to Europe. The EU has already spent nearly 150 billion euros. And they plan to spend another 35 billion European politicians are increasingly difficult to explain to their voters where their money is spent. The negative background of Europe Russian agents are accelerating news about corruption facts in Ukraine.
The EU wants to have safety in the region, but does not want to continue to spend such big money on it. Well, he wants to return to trade with Russia - a large market of European goods. 3) Favorable China. The invasion of Ukraine and a long conflict - China's plans for the successful development of the "One Way" Project, which lost the championship among the major trade partners of the United States.
The Chinese economy is on the doorstep of deep problems and at the same time China has not completed the re -equipment of its army (planned to do so by 2027). 3) Russia is also interested in "freezing" and in the liberation of the territories of Kursk region. The Russian economy also experiences deep problems and needs a "rest". The expenses for war have already cost more than $ 200 billion, not taking into account the consequences of sanctions.
The emergence of military people from North Korea only confirms a crisis that unfolds in both the economy and the army. The main question is in what format and on what conditions "freezing" will take place. 4) Ukraine. I will not write that we are interested in "freezing". We are interested in victory and end of war. But war is always about resources. We cannot finance our budget ourselves and partners help us. $ 36 billion is a budget hole that is closed by partners.
Without partners, we are not able to continue the war. And, if the freezing partners are profitable, they will simply "block" the faucet of financial and military assistance to Ukraine. Everyone has its own conditions: 1. Russia 2. The US and Europe they do not see the prospects for military victory and believe that the continuation of the war only "burns" resources every day and creates internal problems in them. 3. China. 4.
Ukraine How to choose these options? As the military says, "negotiations are on the battlefield. " And the escalation of the conflict is one of the ways of raising rates: it is no accident It is also an increase in rates. Like the invitation of Ukraine to NATO is also an increase in rates. And do not think that there are no negotiations today. They go. And the design of the future "frozen peace" is already being discussed. I can not say so far what role Ukraine plays in these negotiations.
We have the right to vote or not. The main thing - the "freezing" process has already been started. … When can the result be? Elections to the US is the main determining factor. The second is the success or failure of Rossi and Ukraine at the front (both in Ukraine and Russia). From the moment of the election and to the inauguration of freezing it is not necessary to wait. That is, February is the period of activation of the process. It will take at least 3 months.
April - May 2025 is a potential period of official ceasefire. Again, this is only a scenario. Which can change greatly under the influence of "black swans". The most difficult and most painful question. The answer depends on a number of important factors: 1. Security guarantees for Ukraine. It's not just about "memoranda". It is about the real protection of Ukraine and Europe from the New War.
It can be both NATO's accession to NATO (in which I doubt, I think, they will refuse this idea in exchange for concessions from Russia) and the formation of a local defense union (Ukraine, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and the United Kingdom) + ally status USA (by analogy with South Korea and Israel). An additional security guarantee will be: 2. Economy. The Ukrainian economy is destroyed. In the first year of invasion, we lost 30% of the economy.
The restoration of the economy will be influenced: if the event is ready to invest in Ukraine at least 50% of what has been spent on war, then Ukraine can receive up to $ 100 billion a year. And it is not about loans, but about investments: 3. Without the election - there will be no money. Without changing the country management system (refusal to scoop, zeroing 70% of the functions of the state, which only officials needed) - there will be no money.
Let me remind you that Ukraine ranks 150th in the Index of Economic Liberty. This is the%of the kid. Without a long -term strategy (understandable investors) - there will be no money. Let me remind you that the strategy is the fate of the subjects. There will be no money without restarting the judicial and law enforcement systems. Without changing the fiscal system (where Ukraine is an outsider in Europe) - there will be no money.
… It is possible to continue, but when talking about scenarios, without realizing the factors described above, Ukraine has no future. There will be no changes - there will be no investment. There will be no investment - there will be no economy, jobs and a decent standard of living there will be no economy - there will be no strong OPC and a strong army. There will be no safety - there will be no people and there will be no future.