War Scenario-2025: A blow to Belarus as a pressure tool on Ukraine and NATO

To spread: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns: Russia can prepare a new wave of aggression and offensive under the cover of military exercises in Belarus. Military experts and border guards analyze whether the real threat is from the north - and whether Ukraine is ready. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Russia is "preparing something" in Belarus this summer, using military training as an excuse. He stated this during a speech at the Trimor Summit.

"Look at Belarus - this summer Russia is preparing something there, covering up with military exercises. This is how its new attacks usually begin. But where? Earlier, on April 9, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Sirsky noted that one of the goals of the West-2025 military exercises in Belarus, which will also participate in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, may be a hidden creation of groups of offensive troops.

According to the spokesman of the State Border Service, Andriy Demchenko, the situation on the border with Belarus has not changed dramatically. It has not changed dramatically as of now and in the territory of Belarus. "Near the border today, a shock group that would be formed or formed, our units do not fix. However, this direction remains threatening to us. And we constantly monitor how much the situation can change, because Belarus continues, unfortunately, to support Russia.

The context of the announced future joint military exercises, "said Focus Demchenko. According to him, if the Russian units are in Belarus during their conduct. Of course, if there is a movement of Russian units to Belarus, Ukraine will know about it, which is actively monitored by intelligence units.

According to military analyst Dmitry Snegirev, the very emergence of information about the training "West-2025" in Belarus indicates an increase in rates from Russia-especially against the background of activation of battles of Kharkiv and Sumy regions. It is a signal about the potential expansion of the war zone, including towards Chernihiv region.

"Russia thus hints: if Ukraine does not agree to its ultimatums on control of four occupied regions, it is ready to scale the war - including through invasion of Belarus," says focus the expert. But Ukraine understands it and is ready for defense in this direction. But, according to the analyst, there is another important audience that Putin presses on - European countries. He demonstrates them a scenario for the creation of a "land corridor" from Belarus to the Kaliningrad region of Russia.

The probable purpose of such exercises is to simulate the capture of part of the territories of Poland or Baltic countries. It is an attempt at NATO psychological pressure because of the threat of a vulnerable Suvoalsky corridor that connects Poland and Lithuania. Thus, these statements and plans Russia presses on three directions: according to Snegirev in this matter, much depends on China's position.

During the escalation on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in 2024, China took an unprecedented step-he took joint training with Belarus, which in fact "extinguished" the probability of invasion from this direction. This allowed Ukraine to transfer reserves to other fronts, in particular for a successful counter -offensive. "China has its own interests in Belarus - economic and political. This country is for China a bridgehead in Europe.

Snegirev believes that now the main focus of the Russian Federation stands in Donetsk. The invaders are urgently trying to enter the administrative borders of the region. If there are provocations on the border with Belarus, then it is probably to distract from the main shock direction - the East of Ukraine. Hence the rumors of the participation of military from North Korea in Donetsk region.

"In addition, Russia, according to it, is in a difficult position - the pressure of sanctions from the United States is increasing. If the Kremlin fails to achieve rapid results, then the long -term war becomes too costly and risky for him," the expert continues. However, to reject the option that the Russian Federation will try to attempt to attack Belarus, although the chances of success of such actions are as low as possible.

We will remind, earlier Focus wrote that Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Rivne region is a very difficult terrain for the Russian offensive. It is lawn by forests, swamps and rivers. In addition, it was well strengthened by Ukrainian troops. "In the north of Ukraine there are two or three roads, which, theoretically, the enemy can move. Right on the border will be stuck in these forests and in these swamps.