The dinner that decides the fate of the war: what might be the results of Zelenskyi's meeting with Trump
The choice of time and the format of the meeting — over lunch, outside of wide media access — hint at the desire of both parties to operate under heightened conditions of confidentiality. The day before, it became known that Trump held telephone talks with Vladimir Putin and announced a new summit in Budapest. This cast a shadow over the negotiations with Ukraine, causing surprise among Zelenskyi's entourage.
The key topics of the meeting should be: Trump has already formulated in public statements that "the USA has many Tomahawks, but the United States itself needs them", which hints at the internal dilemma between helping Ukraine and ensuring its own security. The Ukrainian side clearly hopes that these negotiations will not remain only at the level of verbal promises and will become an impetus for concrete steps on the part of Washington.
What can be achieved: Risks: According to political scientist Igor Reiterovych, you should not despair or panic. In general, it was predicted that Donald Trump would somehow try to offer Putin to "save face". The only thing expected was that it would happen after the meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyi. But, as it turned out, the initiative came precisely from the Russian side - they could not resist and decided to speak earlier.
"At today's meeting, it is important for Zelensky to keep Trump within the limits of the statements he made earlier: that Russia is prolonging the war, that the ball is in the Kremlin's court, and that Ukraine is ready for peace, but the decision should be made by Moscow," Reiterovich says.
According to the political scientist, even against the background of "positive" signals, it is important not to stop: "Of course, there is also a negative scenario: Trump can tell Zelensky that "everything has already been agreed" and that the war can end in a month if Ukraine accepts some of the Kremlin's conditions. But, frankly, it is hard to believe. Whatever this "Putin's condition" is, we well understand what he wants - and this unrealistic in the current circumstances.
Ukraine will not make such concessions, and the USA does not have the tools to force it to do so," continues the expert. In addition, according to the political scientist, Trump will not risk doing such things in public: it will deal a serious blow to his authority and reputation. "Therefore, the most important thing now is to ensure that after the meeting concrete actions in support of Ukraine continue, and not stop.
And, perhaps, to prepare for the next meeting between Trump and Putin - but only after he agrees on positions with Kyiv and presents them in a dialogue with Moscow," says Reiterovych. As for the dynamic between Trump and Putin, it is repeated again: first Trump gets "disappointed", then starts talking to him again, then distances himself again. This pendulum can last a long time.
If we draw an analogy with the history of Israel and Hamas, then, according to the political scientist, then Trump also acted very carefully - he avoided escalation, pressured verbally, but did not take drastic steps. It seems that he wants to use the same tactics in relations with Russia. "Trump does not want a big war. He obviously hopes that 'somehow it will be settled' - without a large-scale escalation, gradually, step by step. This is, after all, the expected line of behavior.
No one thought that he would suddenly give the order to 'bomb Voronezh'. But he will definitely use the few extra months that Putin now gets to his advantage," says Reiterovich. However, he does not have much time. Trump appears to have clear deadlines and plans to stick to them. According to some sources, Washington is discussing that at least a preliminary document or a framework agreement on ending the war should appear by the end of November. So, the situation remains difficult, but predictable.