Europe and NATO are expecting a great war with the Russian Federation: how ready for her Europeans - Air Force (Photo)
However, the signs of inevitable invasion - such as mass rollops of troops - have not yet been observed. Most analysts believe that it will take several years to prepare for war against NATO. BBC journalists gathered the main issues related to Europe's readiness for a possible great war, and analyzed the positions of the parties.
The war against Ukraine, the hostility of the Russian leadership to the Alliance and the rapid militarization give reason to believe that in the future the Kremlin can go to aggression against NATO. The history of recent years has confirmed the fears: the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Donbass wars, the West military exercises in Belarus and a full -scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The expansion of NATO at the expense of the entry of Finland and Sweden became a response to Russian aggression. At the same time, Russia perceived the intensification of the presence of the Alliance near its borders as a direct threat. The Baltic region is the only place where Russia has a long land border with NATO. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are traditionally regarded as vulnerable, especially through the "Succy corridor" - a narrow strip that connects Poland and Lithuania.
In the case of its overlap of the Baltic country, it will be virtually cut from the rest of Europe. Yes, they believe in the Alliance. "Hybrid actions" refers to diversions, cyberattacks, provocations and disruption of airspace. The latest examples include damage to cables in the Baltic Sea, the invasion of Russian drones into Poland, the flights of MiG-31 fighters over Estonia, drones at Denmark and Norway airports.
In response, NATO launched Baltic Sentry operations to protect infrastructure and EASTERN SENTRY for the defense of airspace. The tactics of Western countries are fundamentally different from Russian. In the event of war, the Alliance will rely on high-precision missiles, artillery, aviation and naval forces, and drones will be used mainly for intelligence and guidance.
The NATO key strategy is the restraint of the enemy with small forces and the rapid deployment of the main parts to the front line. In eight countries in Europe, multinational combat groups are already located. At the same time, the army of the Russian Federation will have its advantages - it is a large number of tactical and distant shock drones and the assault tactics of small infantry groups. All this appeared during the war against Ukraine, which went into the position.
The Alliance does not have a single army, but the total armed forces of Member States in Europe are approximately equal to the number of the Russian army. At the same time, the NATO mobilization resource is much higher: the population of the Alliance in Europe is about 600 million people against 146 million in Russia. At the same time, Poland, Finland and the Baltic countries are actively increasing their reserves and territorial defense. "The total number of NATO agencies is an average of 3.
5 million soldiers (3. 2 to 3. 8 million), of which 1. 3 million are US military," BBC analysts say. At the same time, the number of the army of the Russian Federation reaches 2 209 130 people, of whom 1. 5 million servicemen and the rest are civil staff. Analysts also noted the state of affairs in military medicine. Yes, in Germany the medical support for future hostilities is being worked out: it is expected that hospitals will have to take up to a thousand wounded a day.
Ukraine's experience shows that the nature of the injuries has changed, and doctors should be prepared for treatment not only firearms but also mass explosive wounds from drones-Kamikadze. In Europe, nuclear weapons are in France and the United Kingdom, and American tactical charges are stored in a number of countries. Russia also has a strategic and tactical nuclear arsenal, part of which is located in Belarus. The danger of tactical nuclear weapons (gravity) lies in the lower threshold.
However, the presence of such weapons in Europe creates an additional level of restraint, reducing the likelihood of direct conflict. Despite the preservation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, Europe is increasingly thinking about its own defense independence. In the Donald Trump era, Washington repeatedly declared his role in defense of Europe, which forced the Allies to look for their own ways of guaranteeing security.
Poland is actively developing military-technical cooperation with the United States, but in the EU, the idea of greater independence in defensive policy is gaining power in the EU. After the collapse of the USSR, European countries reduced military expenditures, but the war in Ukraine changed the situation. In 2025, the NATO military budget in Europe will reach EUR 381 billion, of which about 130 billion will be directed to the defense and industrial complex.
New factories are being built in Germany, Poland, and the Baltic countries. Companies such as RheinMetall, MBDA and Sweden Ballistics are actively expanding production. But experts say that the European MIC is not able to cover all needs, especially in counteracting new threats - drones and small mobile groups. According to analysts, Russia is not ready for war with NATO. Its forces are connected by war in Ukraine, where the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation suffer thousands of losses.
However, even having completed the conflict in Ukraine, Russia will take several years to prepare for a new war. Moreover, the large -scale concentration of troops near the borders of Europe will be noticeable long before the possible invasion. "To continue the war in Ukraine and to begin new Russia is clearly unable to. Moreover, the fact of Russia's hybrid actions is often treated as a sign that things at the front in the Russian army are not the best," the BBC concluded.