The war will not end in 2025: whether partners will endure further support of Ukraine in the war with the Russian Federation
According to him, it is necessary to look at the long term and make sure that Europeans continue to support Ukraine. He noted that the threats from the Russian Federation are varied, it is necessary to invest considerable funds to protect and keep Moscow from further aggression. The analyst of the Institute of Euro -Atlantic Cooperation, Volodymyr Gorbach, said in a conversation with focus that the statement of Ruben Breccelmans puts everything in place and returns a sense of reality.
In particular, everyone would like the war to end in the near future, but you need to be ready for the worse option, thus bringing better. He stressed that the Russo-Ukrainian War was being exhausted. "The end of the war is a depletion of resources, some side or both at once. It is not visible or visible in the near future. The analyst added that it is more positive and a normal installation for longer and be ready to pay more - it is a positive and normal setup.
However, how the historical process actually goes and whether the moral and psychological resources of European allies will be enough-it will be visible in practice. Political scientist Oleg Posternak in a comment to Focus noted that it is difficult to inventory of resources, the potential capacity of European countries and continue to help Ukraine.
"Even if there is a resource, both financial and military, and a technically very large question of military technically, whether this resource is enough, because military production is launched, but not in the extent that would like to define European countries," he said.
Expert on Foreign and Security Policy of the Center for Defense Strategies Alexander Hara told Focus that the words of Bracelmans are positive because they do not bow to Ukraine to so -called compromises, but push partners to prepare for a long war with the Russian Federation and help Kiev. "Of course, we do not know how things will happen next year, because the key point that will happen in the United States, if Donald Trump comes to power, then both Europe and Ukraine will be bad in Ukraine.
If he is saying now, he does not He is going to make and revise his views, it can be a different story. According to him, it is difficult to predict how it will be next. However, it is a good signal for Europeans not to relax. In addition, Hara believes that such statements take into account the possibility of Trump's coming to power. In particular, this will mean that Europeans need to pay more for their safety, whereas the best option to protect themselves now is to help Ukraine.
Alexander Hara noted that there are 50 Ramstein countries that help Ukraine. There are those countries that do it in good faith - the Baltic States give more than all when comparing assistance with the size of the country's GDP, and the weapons that they also need to protect. "Others, you can say, there is free Riders, that is, they do not do so much.
Well, most importantly, Europe is a bunch of democratic countries, and there can change the mood of voters, they can choose those who stand for less assistance to Ukraine, or at all It is difficult to predict. The expert added that in the 2. 5 years of the war there were no such political changes in European countries that countries would cease to assist Ukraine or compromise.
According to him, the exception is Hungary, which from the very beginning was for the Russian Federation and against the EU and NATO. Political scientist Oleg Posternak stressed that assistance to Ukraine depends on power in a particular country. Yes, a new President of Romania may appear tomorrow, who will declare a change in attitude towards Ukraine, and in Bulgaria, the pro -Russian party will become a member of the coalition and so on.
He said that the best option is now demonstrated by the Netherlands, where the entry of the "Freedom Party" with anti -Ukrainian orientation did not lead to curtailing assistance. The country was able to offset the influence of one of the coalition parties, but there are no guarantees that it will be possible to do in other countries.
"Where is the guarantee that it will be in other countries? We need to prepare for the fact that the European Union will not be able to replace American assistance, despite even the decisions made on the confiscation of frozen Russian assets," the political scientist said. Posternak said that there are several points in the EU long -term assistance: whether the elites will change by the parties, the coalitions, as the issue affects the opinion of voters in European countries.
Yes, the Russian Federation specifically inflates the fear of the beginning of the Third World War, which many Europeans make them lock in their borders and think through the need to restrict Kiev assistance. "These slogans can take on many European parties. We now see the success of the Sarah Wagenknecht Union in the Eastern German lands.
And we see how many Vagenknecht opposes categorically against the help of Ukraine and for full reconciliation, and even the refusal of Ukraine from the territory that is in our country And now they are occupied, "the political scientist explained. According to him, now in Europe the electoral and political situation is difficult to predict, while the anti-Ukrainian theme is becoming more popular.
In particular, it is a matter of relations with Ukrainian refugees, financing and unwillingness of coalition ruling and opposition parties to direct their budget to Ukraine. It can also be a matter of financial and economic cooperation with the Russian Federation, so political factors, not "sentimental solidarity with the Ukrainian people through fears and catastrophe" dominated by the occupiers in Ukraine.
On September 15, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he would present the victory plan to American leader Joe Biden. According to him, it consists of four key points and one additional required after the war.
Namely, the safety, geopolitical place of Ukraine, military support and economic support on September 16, the adviser to the chairman of the OP Sergey Leshchenko noted that the Victory Plan is based on the fact that the Allies will allow permission to beat on the territory of the Russian Federation. The implementation of the plan can not be said until there is no approval by the US. We will remind, on September 17 in the media reported that the reserves of the Pentagon are devastating.