Putin overstates the price for Ukraine. Why hope for a peace treaty with the Russian Federation - Utopia
But Zelensky said openly: only strong Ukraine can force Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit at the negotiating table. To some extent, it is right. While Putin believes that he will be able to move the support of Ukraine by the West, his war will continue. The question is how to change its calculations. Any prudent person wants to stop fighting. Today, about a million people have been killed or injured.
The war led to the mass movement of the population and the widespread destruction of property and infrastructure. It has created a new geopolitical instability and destroyed the economy that serves as a global provider of essentials. Impulse to throw a towel - to accept Putin conditions, stop the slaughterhouse and prevent further escalation - is clear.
But is such an agreement possible at all? Putin occurs from time to time interested in negotiations, but his price is the refusal of Ukraine to claim four illegally annexed regions, plus Crimea, and the abandonment of hopes for joining NATO - issues his insincerity.
On the contrary, the whole economy of Russia has been reoriented to the support of the war, it still purchases weapons and technologies from the ironing countries, and Putin's goal remains the same: Ukraine should be reduced to the level of Russian vassal. Whatever the desired ceasefire, it will cause huge risks to Ukraine.
First, the pause will allow the Russian military time to replace for about 30,000 soldiers they lose monthly, plan a new mobilization, eliminate operational shortcomings and replenish weapons. Putin is likely to take advantage of such a truce as to simply plan new attacks, as he has repeatedly done in the past - in particular after his preliminary invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
In addition, the pause can jeopardize Ukraine's international support, which will further complicate its protection from the reviving Russia. Many Western allies are already looking for an excuse to redirect funds from Ukraine to internal needs; Yes, Germany plans a significant reduction in such assistance in the budget for next year. The termination of hostilities can be a good cover.
Putin has long been betting that the West is tired of supporting Ukraine that the Russian public will remain passive and that his military receive enough money to continue fighting. The false ceasefire may increase the likelihood that all these rates are justified, and leave Ukraine and the event in the worst position after the fighting is restored. Therefore, the goal of the US and their allies should be to provide Ukraine with maximum levers of influence on negotiations before they can be done.
To begin with, the event should admit that any significant reduction in funding will not lead to a cessation of war, but will only strengthen Putin. It should continue to strengthen the potential of Ukraine's air defense, increase the supply of ammunition and other weapons, as well as remove most restrictions on the use of a long -range missile. Only agreed efforts are likely to change Putin's calculations for benefits and costs.
Further, the allies need to agree on reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. This is a difficult task because NATO - for obvious reasons - does not want to spread its open protection to a non -member state. The nuances and ambiguity may need to be shown. But the collective promise, explicit or other, is to protect the territories under the control of Ukraine, should be on the table to restrain further aggression.
Throughout his bloody rule, Putin has always been ready to violate a truce, agreement and abandon his words if he saw strategic benefit. There is every reason to believe that this time he will do the same. Without proper precautions, ceasefire will not put an end to the war, will not save life and will not benefit ordinary Ukrainians. It will give the opposite effect. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.