Cannot give a quick effect. Why the announcement of mobilization in the Russian Federation will not have a significant impact on the war - the military corresponds to
Because now they want to call 300,000 people to the troops, those who have some military experience, military specialties. Officers, sergeants will be prepared for several months, for when they announce the overall mobilization, there is some skeleton for the formation of new parts.
Video of the day because if they now announce complete mobilization and call several hundred thousand civilians who have no military experience and a shabby, then for them there are no commanders, no sergeants, no normal weapons. Therefore, perhaps this event, partial mobilization will be prepared as a basis for general mobilization, which may be announced in six months. Of course, depending on what the course of the war will be.
- Please tell us for your expectations, expectations, forecasts, how will it affect the front directly? If they really consider 300,000 people who will have an effect on the course of war? - They will really call, there will be no quick effect, because mobilization measures will be stretched for several months.
Plus, they announced that everyone who would be called for a military training in view of the experience that the Russian armed forces have already been received in the so -called "special military operation". At least a month, I think we still have. And then these people will arrive, replenish various military units and increase their combat capability. This is, of course, on paper.
We really need to realize that the motivation of most of these mobilized will be very low, because everyone who wanted to go kill Ukrainians has already done so in the previous six months while they continue this war. And those who are left are already completely unmotivated people and do not want to go here. Therefore, to expect that they will fall into the units and start there some patriotic shifts and it will significantly affect the combat capability of these units.
- Whether I understand correctly, they can call, but to complete, to provide everything necessary for war on paper can provide, and there are questions about how it will be in practice. -They now have a problem, the military-industrial complex is not very handled in order to provide already called and those who serve, enough bulletproof vests, helmets, normal equipment, etc.
And hope that suddenly their MIC will find a resource in order to equip another 300,000 mobilized, where do they have such resources? Even a few weeks ago, they had statements after the Kharkiv catastrophe, such as that we need to proclaim mobilization, let us have nothing, only AK-47 machines, at least some people will have. Everyone is clearly aware of what to equip in a normal way, they will not be able to equip these mobilized.
They even now collect banal for their military humanitarian aid in style - socks, shorts, linen. Even at this level, they are very lame. Therefore, with the production of weapons and ammunition, the situation is even worse, because they already have problems with artillery shells, now there are active rumors that they will receive them from China or North Korea, there were several such statements. Let's see how they say.
- Ok, and what do they count on if this situation is now? - They count on the war before the victorious end. They now have the most beloved analogy that Russia always begins any war, the first period they lose from Peter I and his northern War with the Swedes, when the Battle of Narv, for example, the Russian army lost completely. Or the Second World War, when also 1941–1942 is a continuous defeat of the Red Army.
And constantly, they give such analogies, as if "Russian Medved" wake up for a long time, but as it wakes up, then all enemies will almost seem. That is, there are appeals to patriotism, to history, to "Dedas Women", we have to repeat it, their feat. And note that they are now making war not as a war against Ukraine, but as a war with NATO in Ukraine.
They are already clearly going, they are in mass in the minds of Russian citizens, that the Coalition War is coming against Russia and that NATO literally attacks Russia in Ukraine. Thanks to this message, they also want to mobilize the proportion of patriotic population that does not have a military skill, but has some patriotism there and can enter the army in order to defend their homeland. Here they also want to use such a motivational factor.
-Tell me what additional challenges are not only for Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but for the countries and partners that support Ukraine with weapons? Does this have to change the level of support dramatically, or do Ukraine now have enough to resist Russia even in partial mobilization? - I would not say that Ukraine now has enough resources. If we had enough resources, we would have gone in another offensive and freed our territory at a much faster pace.
Therefore, we continue to be dependent on the supply of Western weapons, we have not all military units equipped appropriately, now this process is going on. We hope that our allies in the conditions of Putin's proclamation of partial mobilization are just mobilized and understand that the situation is becoming even more serious.
Keep in mind that Putin has also increasingly threatened with a nuclear tank and that here for our Western allies, there should also be a clear signal that Ukraine literally defends the Western countries from the Putin invasion. And if we do not support us, then they will have to deal with Putin on their own, and they, of course, do not want it.
Therefore, we hope, they say, on October 1, the American Land League should work in full, see what we get, in what quantities and how it will be reflected in the position on the front. - But it is necessary to make any decisions in the West, right? This cannot go unnoticed in the context of Ukraine's support. - Of course, by itself. Not only the fact of their partial Russian mobilization, it can also such a trifle, by and large, Russia has declared partial mobilization - nothing like that.
There is a bigger problem that they want to hold "referendums" in the occupied territories, specifically in Zaporizhzhya, Kherson regions. I do not take the ORDLO, because in principle, they are already part of Russia, although they store certain legal cars that they were separate. And it will be frankly disconnecting from Ukraine, the next annexation of our territories and their accession, they want to include them in Russia. It is clear that it is unacceptable for a civilized world.