"Russia destroys its own deposits." Lana Zerkal is about how to prepare Ukrainians for winter without gas and what are the true consequences of sanctions hides the Russian Federation
Elena Trybushna, the editor-in-chief and the presenter of the Youtube channel, spoke with the Minister's adviser. - Russia wants to use winter as a tool of pressure on European countries. The Russians have already begun to reduce gas supply to Europe so that Europe could not fill its gas tanks for the winter. And they will play on this and try to press west to reduce Ukraine's support.
What are the moods in Europe now? Will they be able to withstand and not succumb to this blackmail? - The Russians began to reduce gas supply to Europe last year. And last year, we told them that this reduction was planned and that they do it purposefully to raise gas prices and create an artificial situation in which Europeans would be nervous-in order to start the North Stream-2. The Europeans did not launch PP-2 last year, and it was a kind of trigger.
But for the Russians, it remained a hook, the interest they continue to persecute. They still believe that if you make the situation even more difficult in terms of gas supply to Europe, the Germans will not be able to withstand pressure and will have to launch PP-2. No one could predict what is happening now.
In fact, the Russians reduce their production and destroy their deposits, and do it systematically, despite the fact that it will be due to fierce unemployment in Siberia and can lead to catastrophic consequences for their population and not only for the population. They do it now because in a certain period of time, namely, from December, the oil embargo will start working, and they have very little time left to prevent it, because oil is one of the largest profitable goods for their budget.
We are a little better, because we have gas of our own production, and it is important to ensure that we are sure that we will be able to go through this winter period, despite all the playgrounds of the Russians.
- That is, we will easily transfer this pressure and Russian blackmail than Europe? - To us, as for me, and I am not a minister and not a prime minister, it seems that there is also a way to go here an EU, which reduces the use of gas, limiting consumption at household levels, first of all, in order to be able to save Effective at least part of a business that works using gas as energy. - If you immediately moved to the level of household gas consumption, then I will go.
There is fears that in winter it will be difficult. I live in the village, and people buy bourgeois for winter because they are afraid that there will be no gas and private homes are heated mainly by gas. What would you say that it will be winter - should you buy conditional bourgeois? - If we are talking only about household consumption, there is enough gas for household consumption in Ukraine. I cannot say that we do not have enough gas even for central heating.
For a business that uses gas as raw materials - for example, for chemical fertilizers, we now have excess chemical fertilizers. If we have excess fertilizers now, then perhaps this industry may not be problematic if they are restricted in natural gas consumption. We need to determine that we have critical for the winter for its passage from the point of view of gas, and that we can limit, as well as as Europeans do now. But they went on.
They set restrictions so that the households do not consume more gas than they need. This is already done, for example, the same Hungarians. They have identified the so -called "shelves" that the cost of gas is one, and if you want more, your gas cost is increasing.
Indeed, we need to proceed from the fact that we are now paying very little and Parliament said that we will continue to pay less than all Europe, and we are really grateful as consumers, government and parliament that we leave such prices. But at the same time, we need to be aware that we should still reduce the use of gas in everyday life and save, because it is now important in terms of not only the winter, but also in principle of changing the attitude to energy. - Let's get back to Russia.
You said that they expose themselves on the problem and destroy their deposits. There are any data that testify to how much damage to their deposits is already caused and how irreversible is it? - E. They just started to appear. The Russians continue to say that sanctions do not work and have no negative impact on the Russian economy and industry.
But, for example, a few weeks ago, a very famous Foreign Affairs edition appeared, which was prepared for debunking nine myths that sanctions were not valid. And two of these myths are just about oil and gas sanctions. So according to their research, the Russians reduced production by 37%, which is very significant. - Speaking of oil. When they work for a full oil embargo, will they be forced to bury part of their oil industry? - Oil deposits are even harder to restore if you close them.
Already, they have somewhere 25-30% of production losses, and when the oil embargo is working for oil since December, and on petroleum products since February - they will lose 51% of oil, and 57% of their turnover on petroleum products, so it will not be for them Just a very significant loss, and it will be a loss of the market forever.
This will affect not only the oil industry, but on all industries, which are also relevant to this - machine -building, metallurgy, construction, everything that works for the oil industry. In addition, it will greatly affect employment, above all, those people who work on crafts. There are many related oil and oil industries. Therefore, the Russians will do everything now to prevent it, and above all, they will try to blur the European unity.
We already see how Hungary has a "separate opinion" even on the issue of restriction of gas consumption, how it was against the introduction of a sixth package of sanctions, which it did not actually join. - Is the idea of price restriction on oil that is still being discussed to force Russia to sell oil at a minimum price, or is it not in time? - No, in fact it continues to be discussed. The only thing that is still mysterious for me is how it will be implemented.
Because the mechanism of price limitation, the so -called Price CAP, is quite difficult. It is attached to the issue of ship insurance and limiting the possibility of influencing the price, but how it can work, I still do not understand. This idea is promoted by the United States. They promote it quite actively, now it is also discussed inside the "big seven" and by December they have to go to some working version of how it will work.
- How do you generally evaluate the effectiveness of sanctions and the problem that Russia is able to bypass these sanctions? - This is a problem in terms of how Russian media tell and spread false information. What you are talking about concerns such a small segment that it is not even felt in total. A week ago, a team that worked at Yale University was issued. They walked through all sectors, which are widespread - American, European, British and all others.
They show how significant losses of the Russian economy. The Russians continue to use their propaganda as one of the tactics of aggressive war. They are now intimidated by Europeans and Americans because of their "experts" who promote their data that sanctions do not work. This data is not true.
- It would be a testament to the fact that the sanctions were working for us if we saw that, for example, the rhetoric of the Russians had changed, if they started to "whine" that everything was expensive, the money was not enough, to press it on power. This is not happening yet. Too early? - I think that this may not happen in the short and medium term, because all Russians love to suffer. If they suffer for their imperial idea, they will not even whine.
They will die, but they will be proud that they die for such a "great idea". As for the effect, I think they have to feel the effect, because they are already missing up parts to repair the car, not to mention new ones, to be able to plan vacations. Everyone who is conscious - they have already felt, they do not talk about it yet and, apparently, will not speak for some time.
We often forget that the difference between our societies is that we have a free society and we can speak, and if we do not like something, we immediately begin to speak, even often, without understanding what is the cause of this dissatisfaction. And the Russians will continue to remain silent, that they will be bad for them.
- Do you see any signs that sanctions affect the Kremlin or the ability of Russia to produce weapons? We hoped that sanctions are the main thing that would make Russia unable to wage war. Are there any signs that this is being influenced by sanctions? - We will see the signs of this very soon. Again, given that this is not public in Russia.
With regard to the fact that they cannot produce-they close whole crafts that can no longer work, they close their LNG terminals, even the Chinese come out of their projects-all the consequences are the use of sanctions. There is a lot to say that they "do not feel". They feel them - they do not want us to see that they feel it. - If I hear you correctly, then you are generally satisfied with the effect that have sanctions.
Do you think that this is enough or what else is needed? - I believe that we should already understand that the level of sanctions that is now applied has never been applied to any country in such a volume and such a wide range of countries. This is an exclusive situation. We can be dissatisfied with the fact that it had no impact at once. We wanted the sanctions to work instantly for oil.
But we cannot be aware that 13 European countries, if I am not mistaken, used, for example, oil more than 50% - Russian. And 7 countries out of these 13 - more than 75% used Russian oil. They cannot give it up instantly. This will be such a significant impact on the economy that it will lead to collapse. We are not interested in ensuring that Europe is collapse or that riots begin in Europe and that their population is asked by their politicians why they should suffer.
We are interested in keeping a certain development and the opportunity to help us fight and support both ourselves and us in this struggle. Therefore, the question here is how much our expectations are overpriced. I still think that we continue to cherish very high hopes, and this has a negative emotional impact on us.
We need to understand that they need to make a balance that will allow them not to destroy the economy, to help us, and at the same time continue to suppress Russia and its ability to use money from energy as a means of financing their military campaign. - The story that happened with the turbine for the North Stream, which Canada gave Germany - do you consider it acceptable? You do not consider it an example that sanctions can be bypassed? - No, I have another point of view.
I come from the fact that, indeed, it was unpleasant for us, we think it is weakness. And the Germans come from the fact that they did everything to make their society never reproach that they have not done something to stop gas supply and not lead to more negative consequences due to the refusal of Russians to supply gas.
They did it - nothing happened, the Russians continue to blackmail them, but no one in German society can blame the government that the government has not done everything possible to avoid it.
- What happens to the Ukrainian gas transportation system? Can it be that the Russians - they are unpredictable people, to put it mildly, a monkey with a grenade - they will block the supply of gas by our pipe at some point? - Now all in Europe are preparing for the Russians to completely block gas supply all routes in the winter. That is why they are stored in the maximum gas, so that there is no shock and a situation that will lead to unpredictable consequences.
Therefore, they have a plan to pump at least 85%, and in general, if possible. Because all conscious that it's blackmail is a weapon. - What can be in the future with our pipe in principle? How should we manage it after the war? - After the war there will be another world. I think after the war she can also work if we live in a world where there is no aggressive Russia. We do not know with you when it will be - "after the war" and how the course of history will develop.
Unfortunately, we have no "magical balls" that would allow us to predict the future. But in a developed society, all pipelines work, and all compete with each other to provide free access to the resource, and this will lead to a decrease in prices, and we are all interested in it. - the presence of fuel at gas stations. There is an impression that the situation is more or less resolved.
The government has found some systematic solution to the problem or is it temporary and can repeat the crisis that was a few months ago? - Symbiosis and the government and commercial structures worked here, moreover, it worked at the level of Poland - both the Polish government and the Ukrainian government teams were involved. We did our best, and even in the European Union they say that they did not hope that we could change logistics routes so quickly.
How teams worked, how they set up these logistics routes is simply incredible. In online mode, everyone worked, solving all the complex moments of crossing the border, logistics trains, the possibility of cancellation of permits for transportation by motor transport, other requirements for this transport, which is not Euro-5, but Euro-3 machines. Now, indeed, I think we have completely changed our logistics and there is no problem in how fuel is supplied to Ukraine.
- It is hard to talk about some things now as something stable, but, clarifying - worse than now, should not be with gasoline? - When these logistics routes were planned, everyone deliberately proceeded from the fact that the Russians destroyed all our capabilities in the production of petroleum products that we cannot be sure that if we will store any volume of petroleum products - they will not be destroyed by shelling. Therefore, everything was built so as to prevent it.
We have logistics in such a way that we receive everything with land transport and so that not to store it in Ukraine or to store it in a minimal amount that allows you to quickly translate. - Will the price rise? - You want to make me Cassandra. I'm not Cassandra. Everyone is doing now, even at the European level, everything is possible so that it does not grow.
Even in Germany, Vice-Chancellor, the Minister of Economy and Ecology Gabec, appealed to his antitrust authority to conduct an investigation, why prices did not decrease, despite the fact that the government has reduced fuel taxes. Almost everyone reduced fuel taxes to make it impossible to increase prices due to the approaching embargo. The market is nervous, and this nervousness is associated with misunderstanding how everything will work, how the market is translative.
Now it is just about translating. It is not easy. It was not easy for us, but we have a much higher stability than Europeans, we have passed and pass the war for 8 years, and for them it is a deterioration of their living conditions, and they are not used to it. Therefore, their nervousness is now much higher than ours, despite the fact that we are in a state of war.
- In the framework of those obligations that the candidate status imposes on us - what does this mean to our energy sector? - I very much hope that we will start negotiating. The candidate status provides a very persistent process related to changes in the regulatory environment, further proceedings of market and transparent conditions of activity of state -owned enterprises.
It is related to the transparency of their work, with the fact that it is necessary to provide equal access to everything to opportunities. The first thing we want to do is we want to get the so-called market cap, not only our physical accession to the European energy market, but also the possibility of free trading in this market, and this is very important for us.
- Does Ukraine be interested in a market in principle as a market where water technologies, green energy would develop after the war? Do they consider us as a potential place for investment, are we interested in them? Is it difficult to talk about it because of the war? - No, we are very interesting to them. And not only Europeans are interesting in terms of the development of new technologies and our energy supply opportunities to Europe.
We are also very interesting, for example, to Americans who see opportunities in the development of small modular reactors in Ukraine and cooperation with us, in the development of nuclear energy. In addition, they see that there are very high gas deposits in Ukraine and we could develop gas production in Ukraine. Therefore, I would say that we should win this war and build a country - and investments are waiting for us if we provide equal conditions for access to our capabilities.
- Do you believe that we will finally do it? Both judicial reform and anti -corruption so that we really become an attractive investment place? -I always continue to believe that any crisis is first and foremost an opportunity. - This thing for us should become it, because it is no longer a crisis, but it is just a point where the question of our existence is solved. The last question is to you.
How do you evaluate the place where we are now as a country after 5 months of war? What mood do you look into the future? - I'm a realist. I always proceed from the fact that you need to consider all the possibilities and take into account all the facts you know, and look for any other conclusions. I would very much like to hope that we will be able to win. I believe in our victory. I believe that our society has to grow up a little, and this war is a certain chance.