Why the Russian offensive on Kupyansk will not be successful: in ISW pointed to an important detail
According to the report of the Institute of War Study (ISW), the units of the Russian 6th Army Corps of the Leningrad Military District, operating in Kupyansk and in its northwestern outskirts, are "fragile" and can suffer serious casualties in the case of Ukrainian councils. Military observer Konstantin Mashovets stressed that in order to actually capture the Kupyansk Russian army will have to attract additional from one to two divisions.
At the same time, the Russian command understands the need to strengthen in this direction, but it contradicts the overall strategy of Moscow - to maintain simultaneous offensive actions throughout the front line. Mashovets also noted that Russian troops will have to redistribute resources to stabilize the situation in the Kupyansk direction, which may complicate their attempts to take offensive actions in other areas, especially where there are no relocated units from less important zones.
According to experts, problems with conducting simultaneous operations can limit Russia's promotion even in priority areas - near Konstantinovka, Druzhkivka, Dobropillya and in the Pokrovsky direction. In parallel, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation continues to disseminate exaggerated data on its successes. Moscow said that since the beginning of the year the Russian army has seized more than 4,700 square meters. km of the territory of Ukraine and 205 settlements.
At the same time, ISW confirmed only 3434 square meters. km and a much smaller number of settlements. Thus, in different directions, the Kremlin overstates the results from 5% to more than 100%. Analysts explain that such misinformation is aimed at creating an idea of the "inevitable victory" of Russia to force Ukraine and its partners to make concessions.
In particular, the Kremlin often demonstrates videos with small groups of military with flags in settlements, although it does not have stable positions there. However, according to Mashovets, the Russian command carries out large -scale regrouping of forces. It is about the relocation of units from Sumy and Kherson regions to the east of Ukraine - to the districts of Kupyansk, Liman, Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhya region.
Particular attention is paid to the movement of parts of the Airborne Troops and Marines, which are considered more capable. The expert calls some such movements "strange" because they occur between areas with different priority. For example, the forces from the Liman direction are transferred to Kherson, and vice versa, while the main efforts are concentrated in the Donetsk region.
Recently, the relocated units of the Air Force and Marines have already been involved in the fights in the districts of Konstantinovka, Dobropillya and Poltava. According to ISW, despite such maneuvers, the Russian command is unlikely to be able to provide sufficient forces for a large -scale offensive in several sections of the front, and this does the current Russian offensive actions, in particular in Kupyansk direction, vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.
Recall that Russia continues to transfer reserves to Donetsk region to strengthen the offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region. According to the Fighter of the Armed Forces, the invaders have intensified offensive actions almost throughout the front line in this direction, which has been ongoing for several days. Focus also wrote that according to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in the Donetsk region the invaders control part of the northern speech of the region.