Submarine near France and "Green Men" near Estonia: what Russia thought of
Over the past weekend, Russia has carried out two provocations near the borders of NATO countries. In particular, the Department of Police and Border Guard of Estonia on the night of October 11 temporarily blocked the section of the road from Vyarsky to Saats due to the activity of Russian armed groups near the border in the Saats Saapa area. The area known as the Saatssesky boots will remain closed until October 14.
Estonian border guards noticed the movement of armed groups that were not border guards, which caused anxiety. The Russian side denies any non-standard actions. On October 13, it became known that the Russian submarine B-261 "Novorossiysk" floated off the coast of Brittany, France, due to a technical crash in the fuel system, which caused an explosive situation. The French Navy frigate monitors it, as NATO command reported in X, emphasizing the Alliance's vigilance in the Atlantic Ocean.
The senior analyst of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Anton Zemlyna believes that the incident with the Russian submarine B-261 "Novorossiysk", which was out of the coast of Brittany, France, could really float due to an accident in the fuel system. According to him, there is evidence that the boat could move from the base in Tartus, Syria, to St. Petersburg for repair.
However, the earth notes that the Kremlin probably uses this incident to demonstrate its presence near the Alliance, creating an information background for its own propaganda. Earthly emphasizes that the Alliance has repeatedly declared its readiness to defend its interests and territories. "Every such incident - from the flight of Russian fighters near the Baltic shores to the appearance of submarines in the caused areas - is recorded and carefully analyzed," - adds focus a senior analyst.
The earth emphasizes that NATO's patience will depend on the degree of aggressiveness of Russian actions. While Russia avoids direct violations of territorial borders or open attacks, the Alliance is limited to observation and diplomatic statements. However, a weak reaction to hybrid provocations can encourage Russia to be more bolder steps, which threatens escalation.
Earthly believes that in order to effectively counteract NATO should increase coordination and demonstrate a clearer position to hold back Russia's further attempts to test the Alliance's boundaries. According to Candidate of Political Science, Ruslan Kucynik, the submarine B-261 Novorossiysk did not violate the territorial waters of France, since there was no evidence that he was approaching the shore at a distance of less than 12 nautical miles.
Thus, the incident does not go beyond the international legal field. The approach of a warship to the coast of another country is not a violation of its sovereignty, if the ship does not cross the border of territorial waters, does not attack the vessel of another state or does not carry out other provocative actions. In this context, the emergence of a Russian submarine off the coast of France does not give grounds for legal claims.
The French Naval Forces frigate observed Novorossiysk, which is standard practice in such situations. "It should be noted that NATO warships often approach the shores of Russia, China and other countries. Until the ship has entered territorial waters or attacked the ship of another state or has not made other provocation, there is nothing to say in a legal sense," Focus Klutk said.
However, the expert draws attention to the broader context: along with the activity of Russian aircraft and drones over NATO countries, this incident may indicate that Russia is testing the so -called "red lines" of the Alliance, checking its reaction and readiness for counteraction. Klutnik also analyzes the current state of NATO as a geopolitical player.
In his opinion, the Alliance has historically demonstrated its effectiveness in wars against much weaker opponents, such as Yugoslavia in 1999 or the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. However, in modern conditions, NATO increases internal contradictions that weaken its unity. In particular, the United States, as a key member of the Alliance, is increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with Member States who are not investing in their own defense.
For example, Donald Trump's statement is possible to exclude Spain with NATO because of its low defensive costs. Spain Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is not ready to increase defense to 5% of GDP, and such a position may be inherent in other members of the Alliance. These differences in NATO can have far -reaching consequences for European security. The Knutnik suggests that in the future, the Alliance can be preserved as a formal institute, but will lose some of its practical importance.
"We are waiting for another European security configuration, in which NATO will be preserved as a formal institute, but bilateral and multilateral agreements between neighboring countries will gain more significance," the expert sums up. Recall that unknown drones noticed over a military base in futile, France. Local authorities call them small, without signs of military equipment, but the incident is considered "exceptional". Similar cases in the EU, from Poland to Norway, are alarming.