"Drinking" alcohol for $ 1 billion and bought cars: economist about society during the war and mobilization

In order to overcome the financial crisis and speed up the victory, the state needs to take three difficult steps, including reducing the indexation of pensions and salaries. No politician will dare to do so, says Oleg Pendzin, an expert of the Economic Discussion Club. In order to fully understand how Ukraine manages to defend our independence today we need to know that we, as the head of GUR Kirill Kirill Budanov said, is fighting for someone else's money. The revenue part of the budget is 1.

7 trillion UAH for 2024, and expenditure UAH 3. 3 trillion. That is, these 1. 6 trillion UAH we take from other countries include all the social obligations of Ukraine to the population. Oleg Pendzin, an expert of the economic discussion club, said this in an interview with focus. According to him, these UAH 1. 6 trillion includes UAH 350 billion in pensions, UAH 50 billion for subsidies, salaries for state employees and all this huge package is funded by macro -financial assistance.

Now you can just imagine what will happen if this help stops. "In this case, we will have 1. 7 trillion UAH of the budget, which 1. 3 trillion includes protecting the gender of expenses," the economist emphasizes. "Then there will be 200-300 billion UAH for the war, which can be kept no more than 250 thousand fighters And we have 1 million soldiers close to us. " To date, one mobilized costs the state annually of UAH 1.

3 million, and it does not matter which area of ​​the front or not at the front it is located, Oleg Pendzin said. That is why it is said about the necessary half a trillion hryvnias for providing mobilized in the amount of 500 thousand people. And this security is minimal, because it does not take into account thermal imagers, valuable drones and other equipment that you have to receive from volunteers, says the expert.

"In addition, it should be understood that by pulling 500 thousand employees to the army from the economic sector, taxes on the budget will be significantly reduced next year," the specialist said. "And although Zelensky said correct Note that these six payers still have three tax evasion. " And most importantly, according to Oleg Pendzin, that it is impossible to solve this problem with taxes now, so the Ministry of Finance has explicitly stated that there is no money for new mobilization.

In addition, after the departure of refugees of labor potential in Ukraine, there are approximately 13. 5 million people out of 28 million remaining in the country. "Of the 13. 5 million people, about 6. 5 million works in private business, which are the main taxpayers," the economist notes. "There are 3 million state employees, including 1 million and there are an army of Ukraine, and another 3. 5 -4 million unemployed people.

Thus, says Oleg Pendzin, workplaces for 3 million Ukrainians will cost $ 9 billion in direct Western investments. There were no such investments in Ukraine in the best years, the economist notes. And now, given the war, it is unlikely that it is possible to agree on big investments even after the planned trip of Zelensky to Davos. That is why, says the economist, the transfer of the economy to military rails and the elimination of untimely and misuse of funds is the most important task.

The first step should definitely be budgetary centralization, he notes, although it will definitely come to a huge pile of Hate. And the second fantastically unpopular step should be to reduce social standards and allowances or re -indexes that the state makes, again, for Western money and loans. "It should be remembered that even in the United States during the Second World War there was a card system," says Oleg Pendzin. "This was done just to get the resources to the war.

We translate the pavement and wait for salaries. " The third unpopular step in overcoming the problem The specialist considers reducing imports to critical industries. After all, Ukrainians, through macro -financial assistance, received a close $ 40 billion in one way or another and spent them on the purchase of imported goods. "From $ 40 billion, we left $ 34 billion because of the purchase of imported goods, not cheap, in the form of equipment and machines.

Only corporate alcohol was bought by Ukrainians for $ 1 billion - and all this during the war. Therefore, the state should determine the specific list of really needed goods for the army or important industries. " Of course, in the conditions of democracy, no political force will act for such steps, says a specialist. No one is at risk of implementing such actions because it is at risk of destroying their or party political career.