Get out of war with hope. Why peace will put no less difficult tasks than war before Ukraine

Economists track how many schools were transformed into ruins (434 only in the first year) and how many hydroelectric power plants were damaged or destroyed (all) . They even know how many families of agricultural bees were destroyed in one year of battles (86 902). Their accounting book gives some idea how large -scale it is necessary to recover when the fire stops. But this is only the beginning.

Researchers from Rand have analyzed decades of recovery, from Europe after World War II to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrin to show what will be needed to restore Ukraine. Their purpose was not just to explain how to restore homes and open schools, but also how to provide a "more free, prosperous and safe future" for Ukrainians and the event. "It can be the biggest project of recovery in modern history," said Howard Shats, senior economist Rand. "It will not look like Iraq or Afghanistan.

No uprising here is not. What happened in Europe after the Second World War or the fall of the Berlin Wall. " Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe before Russia's invasion. Her infrastructure was in such a bad condition that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy once (before the war) said he was hopeful that he would be remembered as a leader who built good roads. The corruption reputation was legendary.

One US Government's report describes a case with a $ 12 million bribe caught, which still managed to save its work. To successfully restore Ukraine will need to leave the war under a new trajectory. And now it's time to think about what it looks like and how to achieve it. It is possible that neither Ukraine nor Russia will win this war unconditionally. When the world comes, it can take a ceasefire form or a truce when both sides are hostile but exhausted. It is a shaky soil for recovery.

Ukraine will need a way to guarantee its safety from the threat of a new attack of Russia and to instill investors' confidence. Introducing it to NATO is one of the options, but only one of. Instead, the US and other allies could continue to supply weapons to Ukraine and train it to strengthen its own defense. They can also threaten their strength if Russia crosses the border again. "NATO does not need Ukraine as a member to restrain Russia," said the late James Dobbs, the legendary diplomat.

- Ukraine does not necessarily become a member of NATO to use financial support for its defense. " Safer Ukraine can proceed to a long and expensive recovery task. According to the economists of the Kiev School of Economics, the war caused losses worth more than $ 150 billion in physical infrastructure alone. The destruction was so large -scale that in some places it was like a natural disaster. Therefore, Rand researchers also sought lessons from previous recovery efforts after natural disasters.

In Haiti, for example, the recovery after the catastrophic earthquake of 2010 slowed down, as few international donors wanted to finance a very necessary but very unattractive work on clearing the rubble. Just returning the displaced persons home to participate in recovery may be a difficult task: the population of the new Orleans is still not what was when Hurricane Katrina drove ashore in 2005.

Puerto Rico developed a plan for the restoration and reconstruction of the whole society after Hurricane Maria 2017. But local communities, which are often lacking in workers, are hardly spending huge amounts of money coming to recovery. This leads to the next big question: where will the money come from? Western countries have frozen Russian assets worth almost $ 300 billion.

However, it is absolutely not clear whether the confiscation of these assets and their use in accordance with international law will be confiscated. Instead, in view of the scale of the problem, many commentators have called for the development of a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine. The initial plan of Marshall provided billions of dollars to help Western Europe, which lay in ruins after the Second World War.

Help - and the simultaneous creation of NATO - ensured the stability that Europe had to restore. But it is often not taken into account that it was private investment, not international assistance, mostly funded recovery. And the economic engines of Europe did not really work until international trade began to develop. Central Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall can be a closer precedent for Ukraine.

There, some assistance from the United States came as business funds that invested in small and medium -sized companies. These funds have revived the banks and restored the industry to help the recipients, such as Poland and Hungary, eventually join the single European Union market. It is also the stated goal of Ukraine, and the potential of membership in the EU should give "attraction" to the restoration efforts, the researchers write.

"Now is not 1947," said Charles Rice, former ambassador and first deputy assistant to the Secretary of State in European Affairs. "Ukrainians have their own vision of the economy they want to create. entry into the European Union. " The European Union should take on a leading role - and Ukraine will set priorities - in the management of economic recovery. The US should take on a leading role in security issues.

All major partners should appoint special representatives to coordinate their support and meet the needs of Ukraine, up to the analysis of the rubble. And since billions of dollars are likely to flow to the country, Ukraine should appoint an independent general inspector to guarantee: the money is spent correctly and the process is transparent. Marshall's plan gives another key lesson. In the post-war America in the 1940s, this plan was difficult to sell.

The Truman administration has made great efforts to provide two -party support. The restoration of Ukraine will take years. If federal officials want to succeed, they need to do more to prove their right and enlist support for the long term. "In the end, the construction of a safe, economically prosperous Ukraine, which is fully integrated into European institutions, will be a cornerstone, useful on both sides of the Atlantic and good for global security and Western democracy," Rice said.

Ukraine already has an idea of ​​what it will look like. Its plan goes far beyond the direct damage, calculated by the Kiev economists, and provides over $ 750 billion in economic support and projections that will raise a new Ukraine. It requires the construction of new power plants and modern buildings, programs of retraining of labor and reforms in the field of rule of law, scientific parks and centers of production of components for electric vehicles.