9/11 for Israel. As the Hamas terrorist attacks will change the Middle East
If Israel decides to strike on Iran or Tehran makes a decision on direct intervention in conflict, the consequences will be catastrophic for the whole region. Perhaps the most amazing in Hamas's cross -border attack was its complexity. Rarely, when a terrorist organization could fight from air, sea and land in history. Both Al-Qaeda and Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka had similar opportunities, but even they could not carry out a coordinated attack using all three types of weapons.
Hamas, acting in conjunction with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and, according to the Wall Street Journal, is supported by Iran, which finances both groups, has become infamous. Focus has translated Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Weira's common article about how the war in Israel will change the landscape of the Middle East.
If Hizbalan decides to attack Israel from the north, as it was in 2006, when Israel and Hamas fought for gas and Palestinians on the Western coast occupied by Israel, too, can be seriously complicated by the already difficult and serious situation. If Israel decides to strike on Iran or Tehran makes a decision on direct intervention in conflict, the consequences will be catastrophic for the whole region.
Due to the fact that terrorist groups, even in Afghanistan, have declared their support for Hamas, it is impossible to reject the involvement of various foreign fighters. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have chosen the moment. For several months, Israel has been covered by an internecine political struggle.
These internal friction was gradually aggravated: polarization increased, very controversial judicial reforms, political discussions continued, mass protests were held, and reservists boycotted the service. At the same time, the Israeli government still sought to normalize relations with a number of countries of the Arab and Muslim world and has achieved some success.
Terrorists always study their enemies and seek opportunities to strike when their opponents are distracted or occupied by other things. Thus, the situation in Israel has become an ideal storm for Hamas in view of the split coalition of the current government, its unpopularity among many Israelis, lawsuits against the Prime Minister and recent clashes on the temple mountain, sacred for both Muslims and Jews. And also on the western bank of the Jordan River.
Sudden terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7, have no precedent. And this war, which will undoubtedly grow, will have large -scale and long -term consequences, becoming a turning point in national, regional and international security along with terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Much will depend on the further actions of Israel, with a variety of options - on ground invasion of the Gaza Sector to, perhaps, more ambitious and significant impact directly through Iran.
Any of the variants of events will change the situation in the Middle East in the future survey-not least due to the fact that peace talks under Abraham agreements will be disrupted, as Hamas and Iran obviously wanted.
The inability of Israeli intelligence - one of the most advanced in the world is to identify training and logistics, which probably planned for several months, will still lead to independent investigations, systemic reforms and a new look at the security and defense of the country. It is difficult not to draw a parallel with another grand failure of intelligence in the history of Israel - the war of the Judicial Day of 1973.
And the fact that these terrorist attacks occurred almost 50 years later makes this comparison even more convincing. But considering that at least 700 people were killed, 2000 were injured, and hundreds of another disappeared and probably captive in gas, then the scale and scope 9000 people half a century ago. On the other hand, only the Saturday, the number of victims has twice exceeded the number of Israelis killed on the worst day of the war of judicial day: October 7, 1973.
In terms of population, this conflict is much more devastating than the US terrorist attacks on September 11. Like in 2001, when many Americans had acquaintances or acquaintances of acquaintances who died in the World Trade Center, Pentagon or on board the United Flight 93 aircraft, the Israelis will mourn the loss of relatives, friends and neighbors. Only in the first day, this is tantamounts that if 20,000 Americans were killed on September 11.
Even in the most prominent days of the war of Judgment Day, the Egyptian and Syrian armies could not break the defense ring around the country. At that time, civilians were not tracked in their own homes, did not kill, did not expose sexual violence and abducted. Recent events will forever change Israel's approach to the safety of their population.
The Israeli Terrorism Strategy is to "tear out weeds", which seemed practical and effective - today it seems unacceptable and insufficient, and will undoubtedly be replaced by a much more rigid regime. This situation could be predicted 35 years ago from Hamas's doctrine. Hitler's genocidal intentions for Jews, set out in his book "Main Campf" ("My Fighting") in 1923, ignored or recognized vanity.
The same thing happened with Hamas's identical intentions: "Israel will exist until Islam destroys him, just as he destroyed others to him. " Further in Article 7 it clearly states: "The Judgment Day will come only when Muslims will fight the Jews (kill Jews) when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. Stones and trees will say: Come and kill him. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all waste of time and waste of effort.
"These words are not historical curio Hamas has long been attacked by terrorist organizations by the US State Department, at least half a dozen other countries and two international organizations. However label. When the civilians behave in a similar way, it is necessary to use clearer formulations.
Pogroms, ethnic cleanses, war crimes and perhaps even crimes against humanity can be more accurate definitions - especially considering that on October 7, it is likely to be the most frantic day for Jews Since the Holocaust. Saturday terrorist attacks should be a vivid reminder of the unique ability of terrorism to determine the geopolitical agenda and to completely change the status quo.
The choice of the moment of commission of terrorist attacks is probably a reaction to the process of normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and many Muslim countries of Persian Gulf and North Africa. Since 2020, Abraham agreements have led to a historical discovery of official relations between Israel and a number of countries in the Middle East and Africa, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
It is possible to establish relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel through the US mediation as a turning point in the placement of forces in the region. The promised defense pact between Saudi Arabia and the US Tehran was desperately tried to disrupt because it was clearly directed against Iran. Throughout human history, terrorists have always been moderate and peacekeepers.
Saturday sudden attacks by Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as well as their Iranian patrons, reached their goal - disrupted a peaceful process that was on the verge of a serious breakthrough. It is less obvious as Hamas will develop events in the coming days. Terrorism is, in essence, strategic violence, chosen entities that are no longer looking for political decisions. It is unclear what specific strategic result is Hamas.
Hamas may be trying to provoke a depression reaction, as Al-Qaida did on September 11, inspiring Palestinians and their allies in Lebanon and beyond the attack on Israel. And perhaps, they just act as a destructive forces in a peaceful process that has recently been intensified, like the Jewish far-right extremists, whose murder of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 prevented the conclusion of agreements in Oslo, which he worked so hard.
But this attack occurred in the period of unprecedented support of Palestine worldwide (and shortly after a contradictory proposal for judicial reform in Israel shakes the democratic world). And on social networks, a truly horrific personnel of the killings of civilians on the streets and the capture of hostages were broadcast. It seems inevitable that these terrorist attacks will only reject the fight for Palestine back - perhaps irreparable.
All this can be a stunning miscalculation, which is only possible for the blinded hatred of people. Or for figures who absolutely do not care about the people they are intended to manage. Like Al-Qaida and the "Islamic State of Iraq and Levant" during a 20-year war with terrorism, Hamas demonstrated the neglect of the lives of those he allegedly represented. Having started jihad, the leaders of this group and many of his ordinary employees called on the anger of Israeli security forces.
But the path to their neutralization will be paved with corpses of ordinary Palestinian men, women and children who want nothing but a more promising future. Almost half of the Palestinians in Gaza, Eastern Jerusalem and on the western bank of the Jordan River are positive about Abraham agreements - more than in the rest of the Arab world.
The interception of this process with Hamas will not lead to anything but an increase in violence, and will do nothing to improve the lives of those who really suffer in the Gaza sector. The greatest threat is now related to the subsequent miscalculations of statesmen. Indeed, as we have written, the war is far from complete and will not stop on its own.
The land surgery of Israel, designed to end the threats from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as promised by the Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyaag, will almost certainly cause an uprising on the West Bank and attacks on the western bank from the North from Lebanon. "Is another regional Iran's regional associate. Already last weekend, Hizbalah released rockets from Lebanon on Sheba's farms along the border with Israel.
And on Monday, the Israeli Defense Army warned the Israelites living in the north of the country about the possible penetration across the border. To be accurate, this is the cross -border activity of Hizbalah was the cause of the Lebanon War of 2006. Faced with the war on three fronts, which has existential scale and is fueled for decades of disappointment due to the failure of peaceful processes, prolonged occupation, repression and annexation Israel's victories in the six -day war of 1967.
Thus, Israel will feel forced to aim at the accomplices of these groups in Iran, not on individual terrorist movements that directly attack it from three directions. It will be difficult for the Israeli leadership to resist the temptation to strike such a devastating blow in view of the right composition of the ruling coalition. But this will lead to the release of powerful forces that will not be controlled and which will undoubtedly cover the whole region.
And especially anxious, the Israeli government with its unprecedented number of far -right and nationalist factions will be unrestrained. According to Stephen Cook in a report for the Council of International Relations, "in these conditions no foreign government, including the United States, will have any levers of influence on Israel to respond restrained.
" Many underestimate the ability of terrorism to disturb peace processes, provoke dangerous escalation and put countries on the path of much more destructive and deadly wars. However, it was the killer's bullet in Sarajevo who led to the First World War and 40 million victims, and 3000 people killed on September 11, marked the beginning of the US -headed Global War with terrorism, which has died since then, according to various estimates, from 3. 6 to 3. 8. Millions of people.
Saturday terrorist attacks will lead to deep changes in the Middle East, as the wars of 1948, 1967 and 1973 and the invasion of Israel into Lebanon in 1982.
Prevention of deep consequences such as Sarajevo in 1914 and actions in response to September 11, 2001, which laid down a two -age struggle, which, according to many, did not end with the exit of the United States from Afghanistan two years ago, should be of paramount importance for the cessation of this war But restraining its distribution before the whole region explodes with violence. Unfortunately, this task is easier to express than to fulfill.
In addition, the conflict will have consequences far beyond the Middle East. There have already been reports of dozens of killed or captured by citizens of other countries, including Americans. The pressure on the governments of the countries of the world, especially if foreign citizens will find themselves in gas, will undoubtedly increase and can lead to force.
Saturday events in Israel should cause Washington anxiety about his own enemies, who will seek to use political paralysis, split and distraction on numerous problems of international security, and may also apply political violence within the country as the United States is approaching one to its history. But the consequences go even further.
At a time when the war is underway in Eastern Europe for the future of democracy, only the existential threat of Israel can distract the US from the Ukrainian issue and smooth the way to Russia's triumph in Europe. Refugees from several countries and regions will further destabilize the situation in the surrounding states and on the European continent, facilitating the emergence of the same reactions observed after the Arab Spring.
And the Jewish communities in Europe, the United States and at their borders will also pay the road price-they will undoubtedly find themselves under the sight of antisters of terrorists, stimulated by the same hatred as Hamas militants at the gases. The main question is whether combat will remain in gas and whether they will be limited to Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad - terrorists directly responsible for Saturday terrorist attacks.
Hizbalan will undoubtedly monitor the development of events and may seek the opportunity to expand hostilities by strikes on Israel from the north, thus drawing the Jewish state in the fight against many fronts if the Palestinians on the west bank also rebel. In 2006, Hizballa initially condemned in the whole region for recklessness, but eventually received a high appreciation for being able to withstand the pressure of Israel and, after all, is even more isolate it.
In other words, if something close to the worst scenario - a full -scale, total war in the Middle East with the participation of Iran and his supporters - then safety and stability in the world will be affected by the consequences . Bruce Goffman is a senior researcher on the fight against terrorism and national security of the Council of International Relations, Professor of Georgetown University. Author of Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947.