Military strategists in the West are already beginning to think about the offensive of the Armed Forces in the spring of 2024 - WSJ
This reflects the awareness of the fact that the struggle of Ukraine for the expulsion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is likely to take a long time. When a counter -offensive began in the spring, the optimists hoped that Ukrainian troops could repeat their last year's success by defeating Russian troops. But the initial attempt to use the recently staged western tanks and armored vehicles to break the fortified positions of the Russians has stalled.
Since then, progress has been slow and painful. The new impetus can still be in the near future. But military officers and politicians are already talking about what can be achieved in the next few months and how to prepare for a protracted conflict. In Kiev and Europe, it is concerned that politicians and voters can begin to perceive the war in Ukraine as mire and dissatisfaction with Ukraine's support will grow.
Even if Western supporters of Kiev retain determination, but time is over, and the Ukrainian military consume ammunition, equipment and living power. All military campaigns end at some point - even in the wars that last for years - at the moment, which tactics are called culmination, or a moment when the forces that come cannot move on because of success, obstacles or absence of supplies.
The purpose of official Kiev is now that the current offensive end with sufficient successes to show Ukrainian citizens and supporters in Washington, Berlin and other capitals that their support should continue. Biden President at the NATO summit in Lithuania last month told the Ukrainian president that the support of the United States would remain adamant. The USA, NATO and Japan allies have undertaken to develop long -term security plans for Ukraine.
Pentagon continues to supply the latest weapons to Ukraine - lately deadly cassette ammunition - and allies increase the deadly that they supply, for example, winged air base missiles. Meanwhile, the military leadership has been warning for several months that it will not be easy to repeat the relatively rapid achievements of Ukraine last year.
US Army General Mark Millie, the chairman of the Joint Committee of Chiefs of Staff, has repeatedly criticized that Kiev can quickly cut a land corridor held by Russia in the southeast of Ukraine, or isolate the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has captured in 2014.
American and other Western officials hoped that a significant Ukrainian breakthrough could harm the Russian forces so much that this winter, President Vladimir Putin will sit at the talk table for serious conversations about any settlement. According to diplomats, the chances of this are now minimal. Instead, Russia strengthens its physical defense in Ukraine, adding more soldiers and increasing the production of ammunition and weapons.
The event also increases the military industry, increasing the likelihood of a protracted war on exhaustion. History shows that wars last an average of three to seven years with several seasons of the campaign, analysts say. But even if the breakthrough does not take place this summer, Ukraine can continue to fight until winter.
Rain and snow can slow down the actions of heavy equipment, such as tanks, but Ukrainian forces have still demonstrated the most efficiency when operating in small units, often with easier equipment. "The Ukrainian military continues to adapt faster than the Russian," said Gordon Skip Davis, Major General of the US Army retired and former deputy assistant to the NATO Secretary General.
Ukraine has sent on the offensive only part of its most trained troops, and only some of the more than 60,000 Ukrainian servicemen trained by NATO's armed forces have undergone complex maneuvers known as all -military operations. Subsequently, more and more Ukrainian servicemen and commanders will receive advanced Western training. This learning will help them better use modern Western weapons.
Ukraine's initial attempts to use European tanks and US armored personnel carriers were not successful, but by spring next year there will be more Western equipment and its skilled operators in Kiev. "Subsequently, Ukraine will eventually use more of its brigades, NATO trained and equipped, while Russia will be difficult to maintain its speed and coordination at the forefront," Davis said.
By mid-next year, Ukraine may also use f-16 fighter jets that will be transmitted to Denmark and the Netherlands. Washington's pressure is also increasing so that it gives a long -range landing rockets, and Germany to transmit the winged Taurus rockets. The event may also finally provide more sophisticated equipment, such as complex drones that are capable of attacking from the air.
Strategists look into the future and hope that over time - even when Russia will increase obstacles to the Ukrainian offensive - the Armed Forces will be able to gain skills and experience that will allow them to outwit the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. How politicians will come before the war next year, it is concerned with allies of Ukraine, especially in connection with the Presidential Election in the United States, which will take place in November next year.
Former President Donald Trump, the leader of the Republican Party, suggested to reduce Ukraine's support. But it is worth noting that many Republicans continue to support American assistance in Kiev, including a large number of senators and many in the House of Representatives. The concern that such support can disappear if Trump returns to himself the White House, increases the pressure on Ukraine and its allies, which prompts considerable success in the next season of the campaign.