Putin himself will decide who to attack: why the US is wrong that Russia is safe for Europe
Initially, the head of the NATO Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer mentioned this. "I do not think there is a direct threat. The problem is that Russia's ambitions are extending further Ukraine. We know it, so the Alliance should generally become more ready," he said. Subsequently, a recent meeting of NATO foreign ministers to Brussels Ambassador to NATO Julian Smith. She is convinced that Washington does not see signs of spread of Russian aggression to NATO countries.
"I want to tell our friends in the Baltic countries: we do not see the direct threat of NATO territory in the Baltic region or to be honest, in any other region. At the same time we are very serious about the security problems of our friends in the Baltic States and take active measures To improve our position there, ”the diplomat said.
And added: "We also saw many times in the story that if you do not stop the dictator or authoritarian leader, they continue to go, and so it is so important that we all help Ukraine to displace Russia from its territory and put an end to this unfair aggression. If they (if they ( Ukrainians) will not succeed, of course, there are fears that Russia feels forced to continue to go, but we do not see the direct threat of NATO territory in the Baltic region, no, frankly, in any other region.
" US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken holds the same opinion. These days in Brussels, he noted that Russia is completely drawn into this aggressive war within Ukraine, and there is no indicators that Russia's war in NATO is inevitable. Such statements are surprised, as many analysts, experts and politicians of different levels have recently said that if Ukraine does not win in the war with Russia, the Kremlin's next victims will become Europe.
And even possible plans for the attack were demonstrated. At the same time, the American Institute for the Study of the War concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin began preparation for military aggression against NATO, in particular, starting the restoration of two military districts - Moscow and Leningrad.
"These statements are contrary to practical actions, because we see that at the level of politicians of the EU and NATO states, the last few months have been the opposite of statements that have shown that we need to be ready for war. Practical measures were also taken to prepare both societies and societies and And the economy, the armed forces of the state to the Line of Russia-NATO.
- Therefore, in my opinion, it testifies to one thing: in conditions where the US assistance is blocked by Ukraine, and blocked as a result of differences in vision of priorities in relation to budget expenditures in the Republican Party, first of all in the Trumpist wing, representatives of the US state thus try to keep their own faces. . The expert notes that such statements are a weak position of the United States. "And she is profitable Putin," he adds.
"She encourages Putin's Russia to realize more ambitious plans. To capture not only Ukraine, but also the whole space that can be conditionally called the post -Varshawska Treaty. Putin said this position in 2021. Then he said that NATO should "bend" to the borders of 1997. This position does not stand criticism, and I very much hope that European politicians will hold the course that they have declared lately.
The expert of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Alexei Hizhak doubts that the rhetoric of US Presidential Administration, Joe Biden, can change, as, for example, French President Emmanuel Macron. After all, this policy is that Americans want to end the war in Ukraine without going outside Ukraine. "They think that if the war is over in Ukraine, it will not be nuclear. Because there is an understanding of which they adhere to.
And this position affects internal electoral prospects," he says. At the same time, experts have no doubt that Russia is thinking about how to attack the NATO country. And not necessarily Moscow plans to solve everything in Ukraine. "For European politicians, it is now important for Europe that Europe will have to be defended. The attack will not happen, "the hedgehog suggests. But if Russia is not enough for the attack, it does not mean that it does not seek to act in a hybrid way.
This is also spoken by Nativ high -ranking officials and Russian generals. For Russia, an important fact of confrontation. Recall how Russian Defense Minister showed Putin about the capture of Avdiivka - then he said that the Russians defeated a "coalition from 67 countries headed by NATO" and now the Russian Federation "so powerful that NATO could win.
" In particular, Rob Bauer, answering the question that Russia can support separatist movements in the Baltic countries, said that according to Article 3 of NATO Article, each country should be able to protect itself. "If something happens, it is the responsibility of the relevant country-to take care of safety. If we talk about hybrid operations, then, for example, Latvia will have to respond.
Of course, if Latvia wants to start consultations with other participating countries, as provided by the article 4, this is possible. A case of direct attack, "Bauer added. But these words do not sound comforting, so a number of countries are preparing for possible hybrid and non -bizarre invasions. For example, Romania has recently changed legislation to use the army abroad by the decision of Parliament.
It is envisaged to create a National Military Team Center, which will also coordinate NATO troops in Romania. In addition, after its final approvals, the country will be able to supply NATO union and partnerships, including Ukraine. Experts say Bucharest's answer to the threats that may arise from Transnistria. Romania now does not have a legal instrument by which it could help Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova or Ukraine in the event of military aggression by the Russian Federation.
But back to the US position. According to experts, Washington is now trying not to provoke Russia to expand aggression. And this policy is reminiscent of the policy of pacification, which was professed by the event in the late 1930s. It is known that it ended in the beginning of World War II. "It is already said that the conditional Third World War is in full swing. But I think it is not quite true," Vadim Truhan continues.
"Information that CIA director William Burns visits Iran as the day before the invasion of the Russian Federation visited Moscow, testifies to Moscow, testifies However, the United States is still ill with diplomatism. To the attack on Israel. Slowly preparing for confrontation with the states of "evil", there is no unity on the effective instruments of stopping the expansionist policy of Russia, Iran, North Korea and China that supports them.
" NATO high -ranking officials remind, under any circumstances, the Alliance considers the Russian threat to the Alliance the main threat. And there they are preparing to resist her. In particular, hybrids.
Vadim Truhan says: "Russia has worked and worked throughout the European continent, first of all, trying to undermine the unity of societies, their trust in their own governments, encouraging the coming to power by the right and left -wing forces that take money from Russia, then become a leader of their interests. Russia works in cyberspace, where it is trying to harm the integrity of critical infrastructure, governments. Putin's intentions to further expand.
" The question of the time when Putin decides to whom and when he is attacked if he is not stopped in time and severely. Moreover, he is clearly aware that the willingness in the West consolidates its territories, including the use of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
"Examples with the fall of Shahmed in Romania, rockets in Poland show that not only Americans but also Europeans are pathologically afraid of open confrontation with Russia, and even indirect actions that would testify that they were harmful to Russia . They will get through the corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad, in Estonian Narva, they will try to provoke to Poland, Sweden and Finland.
The expert of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Alexei Hizhak suggests that, in addition to his own power, Russia should feel that European countries do not have more nuclear guarantees of the United States, that is, a system of expanded nuclear containment now. "If the United States does not give the guarantor of the Earth Peace, as recorded in NATO doctrines, with the help of nuclear weapons, the Russian Federation can attack.
They will go" meat storming "on Riga or Warsaw," he explains. But immediately warns: such prospects are very hypothetical. "Even Trump says that will deprive Europe of nuclear guarantees," the analyst adds. Therefore, despite all the restraining statements of the US and the EU officials, they are unlikely to be effective if Russia has decided that the war is convenient, profitable and forces.