The end of the war is visible before winter. What does Ukraine intend to do next?

Volunteer Gennady Druzenko is convinced that the active phase of war will end by winter. And then the hardest thing will begin - Ukraine will have to make a painful choice between the variants of development, which is visible three, from promising to none. The war and in the war have repeatedly written that this winter I expect to decay the war. Because the parties simply will not fight on such a scale.

Despite the patriotic exaltation and impersonal propaganda on both sides, who want to kill and die for their homeland. The mobilization resource is becoming more and more poor. And political will to declare general mobilization in Russia or lower its age at least 20 years in Ukraine is simply not.

Because almost everyone who wanted or at least did not mind fighting, already on the front, and multimillion -dollar armies of fans on both sides prefer to destroy the enemy in absentia, that is, in absentia. In addition, the ethos of war as existential (they say, only one) has long and irreparable. Ukrainians are increasingly convinced that the war continues not for Ukrainian statehood as such, but for its borders.

And most importantly, who and how the beneficiary of Ukraine in these (new) borders. And this stimulates the most resourceful and resource already thinking and investing resources not in defense of the country, but in getting into the team (future) beneficiaries.

Well, the second front, where the Ukrainian authorities wage an uncompromising war with Ukrainian citizens and Ukrainian business, has already become much closer and more noticeable to most Ukrainians than the front where we fight with the horde . . . The Russians are also far from the feeling of existential threat from Ukrainian offensive, and therefore motivation to save Russia at any cost.

Despite the frantic propaganda, Kursk offensive only confirmed the assumptions of many Russian citizens: it is not their war. "Khokhli" is the Nazis only in Putin's sick imagination, it is not scary under them and the main thing is that the front line does not linger for a long time on your "little homeland". Therefore, it will not work to mobilize the "tight" as a hub "as in 1611-1612, 1917-1920 or 1941-1945.

It remains to fight mercenaries and contractors, but with such intensity of their disposal in Ukraine, they will soon just not be taken. And the size of the "lifting" will not affect the critical shortage of living force. Therefore, I consider the "Kursk offensive" and Pokrovsky offensive as the last trumps of the parties before the war begins to punch and gradually blink in the winter. Here only the bets are uneven.

The Russians declared that they seek to annex Ukrainian Donbas forever and even record it in our own constitution, but what we do with thousands of square kilometers of the PRC, if we continue to declare the dedication of the UN Charter and internationally recognized borders.

I would generally make purely symbolic resistance to Ukrainians in the "eternal" territory of the Russian Federation: the more Ukrainian forces and means get involved in Russia, the easier it will be easier for the Russians to conquer the Donbas. As Napoleon said, the bayonets are good for any purpose, but to sit on them is uncomfortable. The more "existently Russian" (packed) territories will be under the control of Ukraine, the heavier burden will lie on our country for their maintenance.

Let me remind you that the whole chicken region is a little less than 0. 18% of the Russian territory . . . So, according to my forecast, the war in the chances will start to significantly reduce the revolutions in the winter. Perhaps for some time the parties will compensate for this by a certain analogue of the "war of cities" of the times of the Iran-Iraq war. That is, instead of capturing square kilometers, they will focus on the destruction of critical infrastructure of each other.

Because there are many fewer people. But in this war, I am afraid to destroy hostile infrastructure, the West and China take care of it to decline as soon as possible, without causing shocks in global markets and man -made disasters, which are felt far beyond Ukraine and Russia.

And when the front lines are stabilized and become temporary, not recognized by anyone, but more or less than the durable borders of post-war Ukraine, the internal logic of the war for independence will put us in front of the fundamental choice.

For the people rather feel it than realize that the cause of this destructive war and the horrific victims that it brought to the Ukrainian land is not only a Kremlin grandfather's phantom imperial pain (although he was), but also the weakness and inefficiency of the Ukrainian state. , which seemed not only Putin is a slight victim for the Russian bear. Therefore, the incredible stress of forces and the great price is preserved.

Its actual borders are not defined in Moscow or Yalta, but on the battlefield - where there was a dynamic balance of forces between us and the enemy. As, by the way, it was almost always in a real, not fictional story. After that, the Ukrainians will have the question of what to fill our independence, in order to make it exterior? And to guarantee not only the protection of separate identity, but also - safety, development, wealth and self -realization for its citizens.

And here we will have two and a half way. First. As Americans, French, Italians, Indians, defending independence, sit down and agree on the new rules of play in post -war Ukraine. Convene your constitutional convention. To give up the functions of the president as a cornerstone and guarantor of Ukrainian statehood. To create a more balanced system of restraints and balances. Go for complex compromises. Balance different branches and levels of power.

Leave enough autonomous space for the individual and protect him with effective courts. In the end, our natural ego to work for the common good. The second way, more likely than the first. Find and believe in the next Messiah. Moreover, the war has created and continues to create a whole pantheon of the latest heroes. "Parental Fantasy", as my teacher David Williams called it, is deeply rooted in human nature.

Most do not like to take responsibility and Nolens Valens are looking for a "father" who is ready to delegate the burden of choice, responsibility and freedom. So we can appear on the Bank modeled "Messiah" Valery Zaluzhny or less moderate and more passionate Ukrainian "Caudillo". In this case, there is a chance for radical reforms that Ukraine needs. In the end, both Ataturk, Chan Kaiishi, and Pak Chon, XI, were large modernizers who brought their countries from the third world to the first.

Unfortunately, there are much more negative examples of Latin American and African dictators in shoulder straps that have brought their countries in civilization. It is not sure that we will be lucky with the newly found "conductor" as the Asian tigers, not the other way around. Well, the last option is nothing radically changed after victory. To let the country with gravity. To deriban between the rest of its wealth close to power. Kanchi international assistance.

Lead endless negotiations with the EU. Write down all the facts on the insidious Muscovites. Feeding people identity instead of development and well -being. To be proud of the heroes of liberation competitions, especially fallen (so safer), and branding all the critics of the regime by "Kremlin agents". And for decades to redeem from the inside. There are many examples. Unfortunately, the likelihood of these options increases from the first to the third in geometric progression.