Shogu gave a week. Why Putin wants to stop the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces until October
Sources of analysts at the Institute of War Study (ISW) in the Kremlin say that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be forced to improve the situation in the forefront at any cost. Following such a terrible announcement, Shoigu can give orders to continuous counterattacks, despite the costly price for the military potential of the army. The Kremlin considers the process of defense of the invaders "a great victory on the battlefield", analysts indicate.
Moscow seeks to undermine support and trust in the Armed Forces in the West. The maintenance of defensive positions will create a sense of lack of success of the counter -offensive of the Army of Ukraine, according to the report. On September 24, the Bloomberg Operator Nile Ferguson noted that in the summer the Ukrainian way of warfaring was admirable.
The Russian army has an advantage over the Armed Forces in the air, in such conditions it is extremely difficult to step on well -fortified Russian positions. Separate Ferguson focuses on a large number of artillery and shock drones in invaders. In the latter, Iran's military assistance played a significant role. "The Russians have adapted. They had no drones before. Now they copy us," Ferguson says the words of one of the Ukrainian generals.
These plans for the military leadership of the Russian Federation are possible only if the general mobilization in Russia is announced. The Kremlin is avoiding this scenario in every possible way, says Oleksiy Izhak, focus on the security expert on the security of the National Institute for Strategic Studies. The chances of stopping the counter -offensive of the Armed Forces by the occupier without mobilization, the expert rated less than 50%. The reality of Putin's team is nothing more than hope.
"In Russia, they are preparing to form a budget for the presidential election in March 2024. Military expenses should not increase, plus the situation in the labor market should be improved. The first wave of mobilization has selected a lot Specialist believes. The Western partners of Ukraine, according to him, are ready to delay the war by the end of 2023 and the possible absence of victories of the Armed Forces, so that it can be spoken from the Russian Federation from the standpoint of force.
If Putin's order was not fulfilled by the October by the beginning of October to stop the counter -offensive, Putin's requirements will be made in another form, says military expert Oleg Zhdanov. "The requirements of the Kremlin's head will be more rigid, because it is approaching January 1. It is necessary to go to the election campaign, to give the electorate to hold the so -called one. Putin does not know how to do: to declare mobilization or not. Focus.
Increasing the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine is not necessary to wait until winter, political gnawing will begin in Russia after the lost time, the expert added. "Even if Putin tells today an emergency mobilization, as last year it will not work. Operational reserve is exhausted, and the recruits will have to be taught. Increase the degree on the front line can be collected by collecting reserves and going on the attack in Kupyansk direction. In all other areas of the front.
The Armed Forces of the Armed Forces are steadily kept defense, "Zhdanov summarized. We will remind, the Ukrainian military show success in promotion near the village of Verbovoy Zaporizhzhya region. Thanks to this, there is a chance to intercept the tactical initiative to overcome the second and third lines of defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with the prospect of accessing the Azov Sea.